2025 Altcoin Market Cycle展望：AI、DeFi、L1、NFT 遊戲代幣

自2024 年多頭週期開始以來，到目前為止的週期是：1 月10 日推出BTC ETF → 直到比特幣達到新的歷史高點，從而提振山寨幣季並進入波動的2024 年第二/第三季度，比特幣繼續突破50,000 美元和60,000 美元，目前徘徊在90,000 美元左右。

The bull market cycle started in 2024. Here's a quick recap:

牛市週期始於 2024 年。

- BTC ETF launched on January 10

- BTC ETF 於 1 月 10 日推出

- Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, boosting the alt season and entering the volatile second/third quarter of 2024

- 比特幣創下歷史新高，提振山寨幣季節，進入動盪的2024年第二/第三季度

- BTC continued to break through $50,000 and $60,000, and is currently hovering around $90,000.

- BTC持續突破5萬美元和6萬美元，目前徘徊在9萬美元左右。

It is worth noting that the alt season started when BTC reached its highs. The first round was BTC moving towards $69,000 but failed to break out properly. The next round was moving towards $100,000. The next alt season is likely to be Bitcoin stabilizing at $100,000, hopefully in Q1 2025. But the Q2/Q3 2024 story could repeat itself in the coming months. Here are all the possible scenarios:

值得注意的是，山寨幣季節是在 BTC 達到高點時開始的。第一輪BTC衝向69000美元，但未能正常突破。下一輪的金額接近 10 萬美元。下一個山寨幣季節可能是比特幣穩定在 10 萬美元，希望是在 2025 年第一季。以下是所有可能的情況：

Scenario 1: BTC + altcoins generally rise. Rising all the way through 2025, then entering another alt season, as BTC continues to rise, all tokens perform well, repeating the past 2 months, everything is rising (30-40% probability).

情境一：BTC+山寨幣普遍上漲。一路上漲到2025年，然後進入另一個山寨季，隨著BTC持續上漲，所有代幣都表現良好，重複過去2個月，一切都在上漲（30-40%的機率）。

Strategy: Choose outperforming altcoins and buy on dips.

策略：選擇表現優異的山寨幣，逢低買進。

Scenario 2: BTC rises, and altcoins rise less; the story of 2024 repeats itself, with fluctuations up and down in the next few months, but more bullish than 2024 (because BTC rises); so choose tokens that perform well (50-60% probability).

場景二：BTC上漲，山寨幣漲幅較小； 2024年的故事重演，未來幾個月上下波動，但比2024年更看漲（因為BTC上漲）；因此選擇表現良好的代幣（50-60% 的機率）。

Strategy: Buy on dips in selected altcoins. Avoid the hottest tracks and find the next “get-rich-quick coin”

策略：逢低買進選定的山寨幣。避開最熱門的賽道，尋找下一個“快速致富的硬幣”

Scenario 3: BTC rises and altcoins generally fall (20-30% probability).

場景3：BTC上漲，山寨幣普遍下跌（機率20-30%）。

Strategy: Sell all altcoins. Reduce altcoin investments; if the altcoins you hold do not rise over a long period of time, you may have to sell them all.

策略：出售所有山寨幣。減少山寨幣投資；如果你持有的山寨幣在很長一段時間內沒有上漲，你可能不得不全部賣掉。

Scenario 4: BTC falls, altcoins fall across the board. Everything has peaked (10-20% probability).

情境四：BTC下跌，山寨幣全線下跌。一切都已達到頂峰（10-20% 的機率）。

Because of the macro positives, a new BTC ATH breakthrough may not take as long as 2024. In this hellish summer, ETFs have just been launched, and TradFi is still struggling to sell the BTC story to customers. Most importantly, the outside world generally does not believe in the importance of Bitcoin.

由於宏觀利好，BTC ATH 的新突破可能不會像 2024 年那麼久。最重要的是，外界普遍不相信比特幣的重要性。

Now that Trump has won the election, discussions about strategic Bitcoin reserves are underway. Although the possibility of establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve is small, the reputation of Bitcoin has changed.

現在川普贏得了選舉，有關比特幣戰略儲備的討論正在進行中。儘管建立比特幣戰略儲備的可能性很小，但比特幣的聲譽已經改變了。

It’s the narrative that matters — the fact that we’re in a new regime has brought new attention to the digital asset space, and now that the next US president is talking about Bitcoin so frequently, makes it a lot easier to convince people to buy Bitcoin.

重要的是敘事——我們處於新政權的事實為數位資產領域帶來了新的關注，現在下一任美國總統如此頻繁地談論比特幣，這使得說服人們購買比特幣變得容易得多比特幣。

This regime change is extremely important. Therefore, BTC will continue to have a tailwind in 2025. For altcoins, the situation is similar, but different.

這次政權更迭極為重要。因此，BTC在2025年將繼續順風順水。

Total3 (total market cap of all altcoins) hits a 2021 all-time high in Q1 2024, then reaches a cycle high in Q4 2024. It more or less follows the same pattern (Scenarios 1 and 2 above are not too different).

Total3（所有山寨幣的總市值）在2024 年第一季創下2021 年曆史新高，然後在2024 年第四季度達到週期高點。大不同）。

The key is positioning and timing. Although I am optimistic about 2025, I don’t know how long it will take. Although the rise in 2025 may be earlier than 2024, altcoins will still fall sharply in the absence of catalysts.

關鍵是定位和時機。雖然我對2025年很樂觀，但我不知道這需要多長時間。儘管2025年的上漲可能早於2024年，但在沒有催化劑的情況下，山寨幣仍將大幅下跌。

As long as the cycle is not over, stay long, whether it is Bitcoin or altcoins. There will be no summer 2024 in 2025, and although there may be periods like now (just a plateau), prices will still hold up pretty well.

只要週期沒有結束，就保持做多，無論是比特幣還是山寨幣。 2025 年將不會有 2024 年的夏季，儘管可能會出現像現在這樣的時期（只是一個平台期），但價格仍將保持良好。

The situation is different on-chain, which can easily see a 70% drop when the tide recedes. It is expected that altcoins have not peaked at this time because it is not seen how BTC can continue to rise when altcoins "die", nor can it be seen that BTC has peaked here.

鏈上的情況則不同，當潮水退去時，鏈上很容易出現 70% 的跌幅。預計山寨幣此時尚未見頂，因為看不到當山寨幣「消亡」時 BTC 如何繼續上漲，也看不到 BTC 已見頂。

in conclusion:

綜上所述：

risk

風險

Cycle Top

自行車上衣

We are nowhere near a cycle top at this time but must continue to reassess each week. A cycle top is not necessarily an "event" but more of a range that is slowly approached over time.

目前我們還遠遠沒有接近週期頂部，但必須繼續每週重新評估。週期頂部不一定是一個“事件”，而更多的是隨著時間的推移慢慢接近的範圍。

Bitcoin Reserve Program Risks

比特幣儲備計劃風險

As the new presidential term begins, all eyes will be on what Trump says and does. While the upside for Bitcoin is there, it would be quite bearish if Trump completely ignores the reserve plan. A more likely scenario is that the reserve plan does not happen/is delayed by something.

隨著新總統任期的開始，所有人的目光都將集中在川普的言行上。雖然比特幣的上漲空間存在，但如果川普完全無視儲備計劃，那將是相當悲觀的。更可能的情況是儲備計劃沒有發生/因某些事情而延遲。

In the latter case

在後一種情況下