Coinbase 的乐观估值：发人深省的分析

Coinbase 是一家领先的加密货币交易所，拥有悠久的历史记录和稳健的财务状况。尽管该公司在不断发展的加密货币市场中表现出了希望，特别是进入订阅和服务产品领域，但其目前的估值似乎很乐观，反映出未来十年现金流量大幅增长的预期。然而，人们对可转换票据和股票薪酬的潜在稀释作用以及全球支付系统中采用加密货币的不确定性仍然存在担忧。考虑到这些因素，分析师建议给予“持有”评级，提醒投资者等待更有利的切入点或更明确的公司长期潜力迹象。

Coinbase's Optimistic Valuation: A Cautious Analysis

Coinbase 的乐观估值：谨慎分析

Introduction

介绍

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN), a leading cryptocurrency exchange, has garnered attention in the financial realm. Despite the recent volatility in the crypto markets, Coinbase has emerged as a stable player, generating positive cash flow and demonstrating a proven business model. However, the company's current valuation raises questions about its long-term growth prospects and the assumptions underlying its market capitalization.

Coinbase Global, Inc.（COIN）是一家领先的加密货币交易所，在金融领域引起了关注。尽管最近加密货币市场波动较大，但 Coinbase 已成为稳定的参与者，产生正现金流并展示了经过验证的商业模式。然而，该公司目前的估值引发了对其长期增长前景及其市值基础假设的质疑。

Valuation Assessment

估值评估

Coinbase's market cap of approximately $59.5 billion equates to a share price of $245. A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis suggests that the market is pricing in a bullish growth trajectory, expecting the company's free cash flow (FCF) to expand by 17%-20% over the next decade. This optimism stems from Coinbase's strong performance in the first two phases of crypto adoption, as outlined by CEO Brian Armstrong.

Coinbase 的市值约为 595 亿美元，相当于股价 245 美元。贴现现金流 (DCF) 分析表明，市场定价看涨增长轨迹，预计该公司的自由现金流 (FCF) 在未来十年将扩大 17%-20%。正如首席执行官布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗 (Brian Armstrong) 所概述的那样，这种乐观情绪源于 Coinbase 在加密货币采用的前两个阶段的强劲表现。

Phase One: Trading and Transaction Revenue

第一阶段：交易及交易收入

Phase One, characterized by trading and transaction revenue, witnessed a surge during the bull market of 2021 but has since normalized. This segment remains a significant revenue generator for Coinbase, but its dependence on market fluctuations poses risks to its long-term stability.

第一阶段以交易量和交易收入为特征，在2021年牛市期间出现激增，但此后已趋于正常化。该细分市场仍然是 Coinbase 的重要收入来源，但其对市场波动的依赖对其长期稳定性构成了风险。

Phase Two: Subscriptions and Services

第二阶段：订阅和服务

Phase Two, comprising subscriptions and services, particularly the Stablecoin service, has grown steadily. Armstrong believes that Stablecoins have the potential to revolutionize global payments, reducing fees and inefficiencies associated with traditional payment systems. However, the widespread adoption of Stablecoins and the subsequent displacement of established financial institutions remain uncertain prospects.

第二阶段包括订阅和服务，特别是稳定币服务，稳步增长。阿姆斯特朗认为，稳定币有潜力彻底改变全球支付方式，减少与传统支付系统相关的费用和低效率。然而，稳定币的广泛采用以及随后成熟金融机构的取代仍然存在不确定的前景。

Phase Three: Application Platform for the Internet

第三阶段：互联网应用平台

Phase Three, the most ambitious phase, envisions cryptocurrencies as the foundation for a decentralized internet, encompassing money, identity, and commerce. This transformative shift would require a significant paradigm shift in the global financial landscape. While Armstrong is optimistic about the potential of Phase Three, its realization faces numerous challenges, including security threats and regulatory hurdles.

第三阶段是最雄心勃勃的阶段，它将加密货币视为去中心化互联网的基础，涵盖货币、身份和商业。这种变革需要全球金融格局发生重大范式转变。尽管阿姆斯特朗对第三阶段的潜力持乐观态度，但其实现面临着众多挑战，包括安全威胁和监管障碍。

Concerns: Dilution and Senior Notes

关注点：稀释和优先票据

Despite Coinbase's positive fundamentals, concerns arise regarding potential dilution of shares. The company has $1.2 billion in convertible notes that could dilute shareholder value if converted at the current share price. Additionally, stock-based compensation has increased significantly, potentially detracting from long-term returns. Furthermore, the Senior Notes due in the future may become a liability if the crypto markets experience prolonged volatility.

尽管 Coinbase 的基本面良好，但人们仍然担心股票可能被稀释。该公司拥有 12 亿美元的可转换票据，如果按当前股价转换，可能会稀释股东价值。此外，基于股票的薪酬大幅增加，可能会降低长期回报。此外，如果加密货币市场经历长期波动，未来到期的优先票据可能会成为负债。

Conclusion: Cautious Hold

结论：谨慎持有

In light of these factors, a cautious approach towards Coinbase is warranted. While the company has a strong track record in the first two phases of crypto adoption, the ambitious goals of Phase Three and the potential for dilution and debt overhang raise concerns about its long-term growth potential. The current valuation of $245 may not provide a sufficient margin of safety, particularly given the volatility of the crypto markets. A more conservative stance is advised until greater clarity emerges regarding the company's growth trajectory and the realization of Phase Three.

鉴于这些因素，有必要对 Coinbase 采取谨慎态度。尽管该公司在加密货币采用的前两个阶段拥有良好的记录，但第三阶段的雄心勃勃的目标以及稀释和债务积压的可能性引发了对其长期增长潜力的担忧。当前 245 美元的估值可能无法提供足够的安全边际，特别是考虑到加密货币市场的波动性。在公司的增长轨迹和第三阶段的实现更加清晰之前，建议采取更加保守的立场。