這是在以太坊（ETH）爆炸之前購買的最後機會嗎？

以太坊（ETH）在本週期中表現不佳，遠遠落後於比特幣創下歷史新高的令人印象深刻的反彈。

Ethereum (ETH) has had a lackluster performance in this bull cycle, trailing far behind Bitcoin’s impressive rally to new all-time highs. While BTC grabs headlines with its continued surge, ETH struggles to reclaim its yearly highs, leaving many investors speculating on its next move.

以太幣（ETH）在本次牛市週期中表現平淡，遠遠落後於比特幣創下歷史新高的令人印象深刻的反彈。儘管 BTC 因其持續飆升而成為頭條新聞，但 ETH 難以重回年度高點，這讓許多投資者對其下一步走勢進行猜測。

However, a closer look at key on-chain metrics reveals a silver lining for ETH holders. Despite the lagging price action, a crucial indicator suggests that this might be the last chance to buy ETH at a discount before a potential surge.

然而，仔細觀察關鍵的鏈上指標，就會發現 ETH 持有者的一線希望。儘管價格走勢滯後，但一項關鍵指標表明，這可能是在潛在飆升之前以折扣價購買 ETH 的最後機會。

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, a key on-chain metric for ETH is currently at a 4-year low, indicating that many ETH investors are enduring unrealized losses. This mirrors the situation at ETH’s early 2020 bottom, just before it began its explosive rally. Ju believes that this period of underperformance might present an opportunity for long-term ETH investors.

CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 表示，ETH 的一項關鍵鏈上指標目前處於 4 年來的低點，這表明許多 ETH 投資者正在承受未實現的損失。這反映了 ETH 2020 年初觸底時的情況，就在它開始爆發性反彈之前。 Ju認為，這段表現不佳的時期可能為長期ETH投資者提供了機會。

However, Ju also highlights that Ethereum’s future performance is largely influenced by the revenue generated by Web3 applications, especially stablecoins. Despite the promising ecosystem, it also feels heavily leveraged, and the issue of sustainable growth through Web3 app revenue doesn’t seem likely to be resolved anytime soon.

不過，Ju也強調，以太坊未來的表現很大程度上受到Web3應用程式（尤其是穩定幣）產生的收入的影響。儘管生態系統前景廣闊，但它也感覺槓桿率很高，而且透過 Web3 應用程式收入實現永續成長的問題似乎不太可能很快得到解決。

Over a one-year timeframe, Ju finds ETH less appealing than BTC, though regulatory clarity in the future could change the dynamics and enhance Ethereum's appeal. For now, this period of consolidation presents a critical moment for ETH believers to position themselves before any significant price movements.

在一年的時間內，Ju 發現 ETH 的吸引力不如 BTC，儘管未來監管的明確性可能會改變動態並增強以太坊的吸引力。目前，這段盤整期是 ETH 信徒在任何重大價格波動之前做好定位的關鍵時刻。

After several days of sideways consolidation, ETH is testing crucial demand above the $3,000 level, currently trading at $3,120. This consolidation occurs after ETH encountered resistance at its local high of $3,446.

經過幾天的橫盤整理，ETH 正在測試 3,000 美元上方的關鍵需求，目前交易價格為 3,120 美元。此次盤整發生在 ETH 在 3,446 美元的局部高點遇到阻力之後。

However, ETH managed to maintain crucial support at the 200-day moving average of around $2,957, which is critical for maintaining bullish momentum. Holding above this key support level is essential for preventing a bearish shift in the short term.

然而，ETH 成功維持在 2957 美元左右的 200 日移動均線的關鍵支撐位，這對於維持看漲勢頭至關重要。保持在這一關鍵支撐位上方對於防止短期內出現看跌轉變至關重要。

if ETH can maintain crucial support at the 200-day moving average and continue its upward trajectory, the next major resistance zone will be the local high at $3,446.

如果ETH能夠維持200日均線的關鍵支撐並繼續其上行軌跡，下一個主要阻力區將是局部高點3,446美元。

A successful breakout above this level could pave the way for ETH to challenge its yearly highs, potentially reaching the $4,000 mark.

成功突破這一水平可能為 ETH 挑戰年度高點鋪平道路，有可能觸及 4,000 美元大關。

The current price action suggests a solid demand foundation above $3,000, and if ETH can maintain this level, it could trigger a bullish surge. However, failure to hold above the 200-day moving average could lead to a retest of lower support levels, such as $2,900 or even $2,500.

目前的價格走勢表明 3,000 美元上方有堅實的需求基礎，如果 ETH 能夠維持這一水平，可能會引發看漲飆升。然而，未能守住 200 日移動均線上方可能會導致重新測試較低的支撐位，例如 2,900 美元甚至 2,500 美元。

Overall, ETH remains poised for a potential move higher, and traders are watching closely for confirmation of a breakout to new highs.

總體而言，ETH 仍有望走高，交易者正在密切關注是否確認突破新高。