这是在以太坊（ETH）爆炸之前购买的最后机会吗？

以太坊（ETH）在本周期中表现不佳，远远落后于比特币创下历史新高的令人印象深刻的反弹。

Ethereum (ETH) has had a lackluster performance in this bull cycle, trailing far behind Bitcoin’s impressive rally to new all-time highs. While BTC grabs headlines with its continued surge, ETH struggles to reclaim its yearly highs, leaving many investors speculating on its next move.

以太坊（ETH）在本次牛市周期中表现平淡，远远落后于比特币创下历史新高的令人印象深刻的反弹。尽管 BTC 因其持续飙升而成为头条新闻，但 ETH 却难以重回年度高点，这让许多投资者对其下一步走势进行猜测。

However, a closer look at key on-chain metrics reveals a silver lining for ETH holders. Despite the lagging price action, a crucial indicator suggests that this might be the last chance to buy ETH at a discount before a potential surge.

然而，仔细观察关键的链上指标，就会发现 ETH 持有者的一线希望。尽管价格走势滞后，但一项关键指标表明，这可能是在潜在飙升之前以折扣价购买 ETH 的最后机会。

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, a key on-chain metric for ETH is currently at a 4-year low, indicating that many ETH investors are enduring unrealized losses. This mirrors the situation at ETH’s early 2020 bottom, just before it began its explosive rally. Ju believes that this period of underperformance might present an opportunity for long-term ETH investors.

CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 表示，ETH 的一项关键链上指标目前处于 4 年来的低点，这表明许多 ETH 投资者正在承受未实现的损失。这反映了 ETH 2020 年初触底时的情况，就在它开始爆发性反弹之前。 Ju认为，这段表现不佳的时期可能为长期ETH投资者提供了机会。

However, Ju also highlights that Ethereum’s future performance is largely influenced by the revenue generated by Web3 applications, especially stablecoins. Despite the promising ecosystem, it also feels heavily leveraged, and the issue of sustainable growth through Web3 app revenue doesn’t seem likely to be resolved anytime soon.

不过，Ju也强调，以太坊未来的表现很大程度上受到Web3应用程序（尤其是稳定币）产生的收入的影响。尽管生态系统前景广阔，但它也感觉杠杆率很高，而且通过 Web3 应用程序收入实现可持续增长的问题似乎不太可能很快得到解决。

Over a one-year timeframe, Ju finds ETH less appealing than BTC, though regulatory clarity in the future could change the dynamics and enhance Ethereum's appeal. For now, this period of consolidation presents a critical moment for ETH believers to position themselves before any significant price movements.

在一年的时间内，Ju 发现 ETH 的吸引力不如 BTC，尽管未来监管的明确性可能会改变动态并增强以太坊的吸引力。目前，这段盘整期是 ETH 信徒在任何重大价格波动之前做好定位的关键时刻。

After several days of sideways consolidation, ETH is testing crucial demand above the $3,000 level, currently trading at $3,120. This consolidation occurs after ETH encountered resistance at its local high of $3,446.

经过几天的横盘整理，ETH 正在测试 3,000 美元上方的关键需求，目前交易价格为 3,120 美元。此次盘整发生在 ETH 在 3,446 美元的局部高点遇到阻力之后。

However, ETH managed to maintain crucial support at the 200-day moving average of around $2,957, which is critical for maintaining bullish momentum. Holding above this key support level is essential for preventing a bearish shift in the short term.

然而，ETH 成功维持在 2957 美元左右的 200 日移动均线的关键支撑位，这对于维持看涨势头至关重要。保持在这一关键支撑位之上对于防止短期内出现看跌转变至关重要。

if ETH can maintain crucial support at the 200-day moving average and continue its upward trajectory, the next major resistance zone will be the local high at $3,446.

如果ETH能够维持200日均线的关键支撑并继续其上行轨迹，下一个主要阻力区将是局部高点3,446美元。

A successful breakout above this level could pave the way for ETH to challenge its yearly highs, potentially reaching the $4,000 mark.

成功突破这一水平可能为 ETH 挑战年度高点铺平道路，有可能触及 4,000 美元大关。

The current price action suggests a solid demand foundation above $3,000, and if ETH can maintain this level, it could trigger a bullish surge. However, failure to hold above the 200-day moving average could lead to a retest of lower support levels, such as $2,900 or even $2,500.

目前的价格走势表明 3,000 美元上方有坚实的需求基础，如果 ETH 能够维持这一水平，可能会引发看涨飙升。然而，未能守住 200 日移动均线上方可能会导致重新测试较低的支撑位，例如 2,900 美元甚至 2,500 美元。

Overall, ETH remains poised for a potential move higher, and traders are watching closely for confirmation of a breakout to new highs.

总体而言，ETH 仍有望走高，交易者正在密切关注是否确认突破新高。