比特幣未實現的損失尚未對長期持有人興高采烈

GlassNode在其最新的每週報告中討論了兩個主要比特幣隊列的未實現損失趨勢。

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how this historical bear market confirmation is yet to appear for Bitcoin in the current cycle.

鏈上分析公司玻璃節點強調了這種歷史熊市市場在當前週期中尚未出現這種歷史性的熊市確認。

Bitcoin Unrealized Loss Hasn’t Spiked For Long-Term Holders Yet

比特幣未實現的損失尚未對長期持有人興高采烈

In its latest weekly report, Glassnode discussed about the trend in the Unrealized Loss for the two major Bitcoin cohorts. The “Unrealized Loss” is an on-chain indicator that measures the total amount of loss that the BTC addresses as a whole are carrying.

GlassNode在其最新的每週報告中討論了兩個主要比特幣同伙的未實現損失趨勢。 “未實現的損失”是一種鍊鍊指標，可衡量BTC整體攜帶的總損失量。

The metric works by going through the transfer history of each coin in circulation to see what price it was last moved at. If this previous trading price is more than the current spot price for any token, then that particular token’s assumed to be holding a net loss.

度量標準是通過瀏覽每枚硬幣的轉移歷史記錄，以查看上次轉移的價格。如果以前的交易價格超過任何代幣的當前現貨價格，那麼該特定令牌假定持有淨虧損。

The indicator takes the difference between the two prices to find the exact measure of this loss. It then adds up this value for all coins part of the circulating supply to find the network total.

該指標採用兩個價格之間的差異，以找到此損失的確切度量。然後，它為循環電源的所有硬幣一部分加起來以找到網絡總數。

In the context of the current topic, the usual version of the Unrealized Loss isn’t the one of interest, but rather a new variant known as the Unrealized Loss per Percent Drawdown. As the analytics firm explains,

在當前主題的上下文中，未實現的損失的通常版本不是一個有趣的損失，而是一種新的變體，稱為未實現的每百分比虧損。正如分析公司所解釋的那樣，

As the market continues to contract, it’s reasonable to expect the absolute size of unrealized losses to grow. To account for this and normalize across drawdowns of varying magnitudes, we introduce a new variant of the metric: Unrealized Loss per Percent Drawdown, which expresses losses held in BTC terms relative to the percentage decline from the all-time high.

隨著市場的繼續收縮，可以合理地期望未實現的損失的絕對規模增長。為了解決這一問題並在不同幅度的縮寫中歸一化，我們引入了一種新的度量標準變體：未實現的每百分比虧損，該變體表示，該變體以BTC術語持有的損失，相對於歷史最高時分的百分比下降。

First, here is a chart that shows the trend in this Bitcoin indicator specifically for the short-term holders:

首先，這是一個圖表，該圖表顯示了專門針對短期持有人的比特幣指標的趨勢：

“Short-term holders” (STHs) refer to the Bitcoin investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. BTC is currently trading under the levels that it was at during most of this window, so these holders would majorly be in a state of loss.

“短期持有人”（STHS）是指在過去155天內購買硬幣的比特幣投資者。 BTC目前正在以此窗口的大多數水平進行交易，因此這些持有人主要處於損失狀態。

The Unrealized Loss per Percent Drawdown showcases this trend, as its value has shot up recently. Interestingly, the indicator is already at a high-enough level to be comparable with values seen during the start of previous bear markets.

隨著其價值最近的爆發，每百分比的未實現損失顯示了這一趨勢。有趣的是，該指標已經處於高度水平，可與先前熊市開始時看到的價值相提並論。

While the STHs are in substantial losses, the same isn’t true for the other side of the market: the “long-term holders.”

儘管STH遭受了巨大的損失，但對於市場的另一端而言，“長期持有人”並非如此。

These investors, who have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago, are carrying no unrealized loss at all right now. In the past, the LTHs have generally seen their loss spike up during the transition to a bear market.

這些投資者自155天以上以來一直堅持自己的硬幣，目前尚未承擔未實現的損失。過去，LTHS通常在過渡到熊市的過程中看到了他們的損失峰值。

As the report notes,

如報告所指出的那樣

Historically, substantial expansions in unrealized losses among long-term holders have often marked the confirmation of bear market conditions, albeit with a delay following the market peak.

從歷史上看，長期持有人之間未實現的損失的大幅擴張通常標誌著熊市條件的確認，儘管在市場達到峰值之後會延遲。

So far, this signal hasn’t appeared for Bitcoin. Something to keep in mind, though, is the fact that the top buyers will soon promote into the LTHs. Once that happens, the loss among the group is probable to register an increase.

到目前為止，該信號尚未出現在比特幣中。不過，要記住的事情是，頂級買家很快將晉升為LTHS。一旦發生這種情況，小組之間的損失很可能會增加。