比特币未实现的损失尚未对长期持有人兴高采烈

GlassNode在其最新的每周报告中讨论了两个主要比特币队列的未实现损失趋势。

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how this historical bear market confirmation is yet to appear for Bitcoin in the current cycle.

链上分析公司玻璃节点强调了这种历史熊市市场在当前周期中尚未出现这种历史性的熊市确认。

Bitcoin Unrealized Loss Hasn’t Spiked For Long-Term Holders Yet

比特币未实现的损失尚未对长期持有人兴高采烈

In its latest weekly report, Glassnode discussed about the trend in the Unrealized Loss for the two major Bitcoin cohorts. The “Unrealized Loss” is an on-chain indicator that measures the total amount of loss that the BTC addresses as a whole are carrying.

GlassNode在其最新的每周报告中讨论了两个主要比特币同伙的未实现损失趋势。 “未实现的损失”是一种链链指标，可衡量BTC整体携带的总损失量。

The metric works by going through the transfer history of each coin in circulation to see what price it was last moved at. If this previous trading price is more than the current spot price for any token, then that particular token’s assumed to be holding a net loss.

度量标准是通过浏览每枚硬币的转移历史记录，以查看上次转移的价格。如果以前的交易价格超过任何代币的当前现货价格，那么该特定令牌假定持有净亏损。

The indicator takes the difference between the two prices to find the exact measure of this loss. It then adds up this value for all coins part of the circulating supply to find the network total.

该指标采用两个价格之间的差异，以找到此损失的确切度量。然后，它为循环电源的所有硬币一部分加起来以找到网络总数。

In the context of the current topic, the usual version of the Unrealized Loss isn’t the one of interest, but rather a new variant known as the Unrealized Loss per Percent Drawdown. As the analytics firm explains,

在当前主题的上下文中，未实现的损失的通常版本不是一个有趣的损失，而是一种新的变体，称为未实现的每百分比亏损。正如分析公司所解释的那样，

As the market continues to contract, it’s reasonable to expect the absolute size of unrealized losses to grow. To account for this and normalize across drawdowns of varying magnitudes, we introduce a new variant of the metric: Unrealized Loss per Percent Drawdown, which expresses losses held in BTC terms relative to the percentage decline from the all-time high.

随着市场的继续收缩，可以合理地期望未实现的损失的绝对规模增长。为了解决这一问题并在不同幅度的缩写中归一化，我们引入了一种新的度量标准变体：未实现的每百分比亏损，该变体表示，该变体以BTC术语持有的损失，相对于历史最高时分的百分比下降。

First, here is a chart that shows the trend in this Bitcoin indicator specifically for the short-term holders:

首先，这是一个图表，该图表显示了专门针对短期持有人的比特币指标的趋势：

“Short-term holders” (STHs) refer to the Bitcoin investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. BTC is currently trading under the levels that it was at during most of this window, so these holders would majorly be in a state of loss.

“短期持有人”（STHS）是指在过去155天内购买硬币的比特币投资者。 BTC目前正在以此窗口的大多数水平进行交易，因此这些持有人主要处于损失状态。

The Unrealized Loss per Percent Drawdown showcases this trend, as its value has shot up recently. Interestingly, the indicator is already at a high-enough level to be comparable with values seen during the start of previous bear markets.

随着其价值最近的爆发，每百分比的未实现损失显示了这一趋势。有趣的是，该指标已经处于高度水平，可与先前熊市开始时看到的价值相提并论。

While the STHs are in substantial losses, the same isn’t true for the other side of the market: the “long-term holders.”

尽管STH遭受了巨大的损失，但对于市场的另一端而言，“长期持有人”并非如此。

These investors, who have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago, are carrying no unrealized loss at all right now. In the past, the LTHs have generally seen their loss spike up during the transition to a bear market.

这些投资者自155天以上以来一直坚持自己的硬币，目前尚未承担未实现的损失。过去，LTHS通常在过渡到熊市的过程中看到了他们的损失峰值。

As the report notes,

如报告所指出的那样

Historically, substantial expansions in unrealized losses among long-term holders have often marked the confirmation of bear market conditions, albeit with a delay following the market peak.

从历史上看，长期持有人之间未实现的损失的大幅扩张通常标志着熊市条件的确认，尽管在市场达到峰值之后会延迟。

So far, this signal hasn’t appeared for Bitcoin. Something to keep in mind, though, is the fact that the top buyers will soon promote into the LTHs. Once that happens, the loss among the group is probable to register an increase.

到目前为止，该信号尚未出现在比特币中。不过，要记住的事情是，顶级买家很快将晋升为LTHS。一旦发生这种情况，小组之间的损失很可能会增加。