資深分析師警告稱，比特幣的飆升可能已達到頂峰

資深圖表分析師 Peter Brandt 準確預測了比特幣 2018 年的崩盤，他認為近期的多頭市場可能已經達到頂峰。這一觀點源於「指數衰減」的統計概念，該概念表明，每個連續的牛市週期的強度都比前一個週期低 80%。 Brandt 指出，比特幣最近上漲至 73,000 美元以上符合此模式，並預測如果指數衰減理論成立，比特幣可能會下跌。

Bitcoin's Bullish Ascent May Have Reached Its Zenith, Veteran Analyst Concludes

資深分析師得出結論，比特幣的看漲勢頭可能已達到頂峰

In a marked departure from his previous optimistic stance, seasoned chart analyst Peter Brandt, CEO of Factor LLC, has revised his projections for Bitcoin (BTC), suggesting that the cryptocurrency's recent meteoric rise may have culminated in its peak.

Factor LLC 執行長、經驗豐富的圖表分析師彼得·布蘭特(Peter Brandt) 與先前的樂觀立場明顯不同，他修改了對比特幣(BTC) 的預測，表明加密貨幣近期的飛速上漲可能已達到頂峰。

Brandt's latest assessment is grounded in the mathematical concept of "exponential decay," which posits a predictable decrease in an amount at a constant percentage rate over time.

布蘭特的最新評估是基於「指數衰減」的數學概念，該概念假設隨著時間的推移，金額會以恆定的百分比率出現可預測的減少。

Historical data, according to Brandt, has consistently revealed Bitcoin's tendency to follow a cyclical bull/bear pattern that spans approximately four years, coinciding with halving events. However, with each successive bull market cycle, the magnitude of the price increase has exhibited a striking 80% reduction compared to its predecessor.

布蘭特表示，歷史數據始終顯示，比特幣傾向於遵循大約四年的周期性牛市/熊市模式，與減半事件同時發生。然而，在每一個連續的牛市週期中，價格上漲的幅度都比前一個週期顯著下降了 80%。

"If this statistical constant persists," Brandt opines, "the record Bitcoin high of $73,835 reached on March 14, 2024, already aligns with the historical exponential decay."

Brandt 認為：“如果這個統計常數持續存在，那麼比特幣在 2024 年 3 月 14 日達到的歷史新高 73,835 美元已經與歷史指數衰減一致。”

Brandt's prescient prediction of Bitcoin's 2018 collapse to below $4,000 lends credence to his analytical prowess.

Brandt 對比特幣 2018 年跌至 4,000 美元以下的先見之明預測證明了他的分析能力。

"The exponential decay theory implies that the bull market may have reached its conclusion," Brandt cautions.

「指數衰減理論意味著牛市可能已經結束，」布蘭特警告。

Nevertheless, Brandt acknowledges the inherent uncertainty of financial forecasts, recognizing that past trends do not infallibly guarantee future outcomes. Moreover, Bitcoin's quadrennial halvings, which reduce the pace of block reward issuance, have historically fueled bullish momentum. The most recent halving occurred on April 20, cutting the issuance rate from 6.5 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.

儘管如此，布蘭特承認財務預測固有的不確定性，並認識到過去的趨勢並不能絕對保證未來的結果。此外，比特幣四年一次的減半會降低區塊獎勵發行的速度，這在歷史上曾助長了看漲勢頭。最近一次減半發生在 4 月 20 日，將發行率從每個區塊 6.5 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC。

Consequently, the broader crypto community remains cautiously optimistic, anticipating a bullish breakout from the current consolidation phase within the $60,000-$70,000 range.

因此，更廣泛的加密貨幣社群仍然保持謹慎樂觀，預計價格將從當前的盤整階段突破 60,000 美元至 70,000 美元的區間。

"The 'Pre/Post Halving' cycle suggests that the current bull trend will likely peak in the $140,000 to $160,000 range sometime in late summer or early fall of 2025," Brandt postulates, emphasizing that this thesis remains the cornerstone of his continued bullish stance.

Brandt 推測：「『減半前/減半後』週期表明，當前的牛市趨勢可能會在2025 年夏末或初秋的某個時間在140,000 美元至160,000 美元的範圍內達到峰值。」他強調，這一論點仍是他持續看漲立場的基石。

However, Brandt underscores that the exponential theory lingers in the background, awaiting developments that may refute its potential impact on the bull trend that commenced in November 2022.

然而，布蘭特強調，指數理論仍在幕後徘徊，等待可能反駁其對 2022 年 11 月開始的牛市趨勢的潛在影響的事態發展。

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $62,300, having declined 1.5% over the preceding 24 hours.

截至本報告發佈時，比特幣交易價格為 62,300 美元，在過去 24 小時內下跌了 1.5%。

Technical Analysis Reveals Bitcoin's Exponential Decay Pattern

技術分析揭示了比特幣的指數衰減模式

Brandt's analysis utilizes exponential decay to illustrate the diminishing magnitude of Bitcoin's bull market cycles. The inaugural rally witnessed a surge from $0.01 to $31.91, a remarkable 3,391x increase in less than two years. While subsequent bull markets have been more protracted, their magnitudes have been markedly smaller, consistently exhibiting an 80% exponential decay.

布蘭特的分析利用指數衰減來說明比特幣牛市週期的減弱程度。首次上漲見證了從 0.01 美元飆升至 31.91 美元，在不到兩年的時間內上漲了 3,391 倍。雖然隨後的多頭持續時間更長，但其幅度明顯較小，始終呈現 80% 的指數衰減。

Bitcoin's recent ascent to its March high of $73,000 represented a 79.1% increase from the bear market low of $15,473 precipitated by the FTX exchange collapse in November 2022.

比特幣最近升至 3 月高點 73,000 美元，較 2022 年 11 月 FTX 交易所崩盤引發的熊市低點 15,473 美元上漲了 79.1%。

Consensus Opinion Favors Bullish Breakout

共識觀點有利於看漲突破

Despite Brandt's cautious assessment, the predominant sentiment within the crypto community remains bullish. Many analysts anticipate a breakout from the current consolidation phase, driven by the post-halving momentum.

儘管布蘭特做出了謹慎的評估，但加密貨幣社群內的主導情緒仍然看漲。許多分析師預計，在減半後勢頭的推動下，將突破當前的盤整階段。

"The historical pattern suggests that Bitcoin is poised for further gains, potentially reaching the $140,000 to $160,000 range in the coming months," stated one analyst.

一位分析師表示：“歷史模式表明，比特幣有望進一步上漲，未來幾個月可能達到 14 萬至 16 萬美元的區間。”

However, it is crucial to emphasize that predictions in the financial realm are inherently uncertain, and market dynamics can shift rapidly. As such, investors should conduct thorough due diligence and proceed with caution when making investment decisions.

然而，必須強調的是，金融領域的預測本質上是不確定的，而且市場動態可能會迅速變化。因此，投資者在做出投資決策時應進行徹底的盡職調查並謹慎行事。