资深分析师警告称，比特币的飙升可能已达到顶峰

资深图表分析师 Peter Brandt 准确预测了比特币 2018 年的崩盘，他认为近期的牛市可能已经达到顶峰。这一观点源于“指数衰减”的统计概念，该概念表明，每个连续的牛市周期的强度都比前一个周期低 80%。 Brandt 指出，比特币最近上涨至 73,000 美元以上符合这一模式，并预测如果指数衰减理论成立，比特币可能会下跌。

Bitcoin's Bullish Ascent May Have Reached Its Zenith, Veteran Analyst Concludes

资深分析师得出结论，比特币的看涨势头可能已达到顶峰

In a marked departure from his previous optimistic stance, seasoned chart analyst Peter Brandt, CEO of Factor LLC, has revised his projections for Bitcoin (BTC), suggesting that the cryptocurrency's recent meteoric rise may have culminated in its peak.

Factor LLC 首席执行官、经验丰富的图表分析师彼得·勃兰特 (Peter Brandt) 与之前的乐观立场明显不同，他修改了对比特币 (BTC) 的预测，表明加密货币近期的飞速上涨可能已达到顶峰。

Brandt's latest assessment is grounded in the mathematical concept of "exponential decay," which posits a predictable decrease in an amount at a constant percentage rate over time.

布兰特的最新评估基于“指数衰减”的数学概念，该概念假设随着时间的推移，金额会以恒定的百分比率出现可预测的减少。

Historical data, according to Brandt, has consistently revealed Bitcoin's tendency to follow a cyclical bull/bear pattern that spans approximately four years, coinciding with halving events. However, with each successive bull market cycle, the magnitude of the price increase has exhibited a striking 80% reduction compared to its predecessor.

布兰特表示，历史数据始终显示，比特币倾向于遵循大约四年的周期性牛市/熊市模式，与减半事件同时发生。然而，在每一个连续的牛市周期中，价格上涨的幅度都比前一个周期显着下降了 80%。

"If this statistical constant persists," Brandt opines, "the record Bitcoin high of $73,835 reached on March 14, 2024, already aligns with the historical exponential decay."

Brandt 认为：“如果这个统计常数持续存在，那么比特币在 2024 年 3 月 14 日达到的历史新高 73,835 美元已经与历史指数衰减一致。”

Brandt's prescient prediction of Bitcoin's 2018 collapse to below $4,000 lends credence to his analytical prowess.

Brandt 对比特币 2018 年跌至 4,000 美元以下的先见之明预测证明了他的分析能力。

"The exponential decay theory implies that the bull market may have reached its conclusion," Brandt cautions.

“指数衰减理论意味着牛市可能已经结束，”布兰特警告说。

Nevertheless, Brandt acknowledges the inherent uncertainty of financial forecasts, recognizing that past trends do not infallibly guarantee future outcomes. Moreover, Bitcoin's quadrennial halvings, which reduce the pace of block reward issuance, have historically fueled bullish momentum. The most recent halving occurred on April 20, cutting the issuance rate from 6.5 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.

尽管如此，布兰特承认财务预测固有的不确定性，并认识到过去的趋势并不能绝对保证未来的结果。此外，比特币四年一次的减半会降低区块奖励发行的速度，这在历史上曾助长了看涨势头。最近一次减半发生在 4 月 20 日，将发行率从每个区块 6.5 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC。

Consequently, the broader crypto community remains cautiously optimistic, anticipating a bullish breakout from the current consolidation phase within the $60,000-$70,000 range.

因此，更广泛的加密货币社区仍然保持谨慎乐观，预计价格将从当前的盘整阶段突破 60,000 美元至 70,000 美元的区间。

"The 'Pre/Post Halving' cycle suggests that the current bull trend will likely peak in the $140,000 to $160,000 range sometime in late summer or early fall of 2025," Brandt postulates, emphasizing that this thesis remains the cornerstone of his continued bullish stance.

Brandt 推测：“‘减半前/减半后’周期表明，当前的牛市趋势可能会在 2025 年夏末或初秋的某个时间在 140,000 美元至 160,000 美元的范围内达到峰值。”他强调，这一论点仍然是他持续看涨立场的基石。

However, Brandt underscores that the exponential theory lingers in the background, awaiting developments that may refute its potential impact on the bull trend that commenced in November 2022.

然而，布兰特强调，指数理论仍在幕后徘徊，等待着可能反驳其对 2022 年 11 月开始的牛市趋势的潜在影响的事态发展。

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $62,300, having declined 1.5% over the preceding 24 hours.

截至本报告发布时，比特币交易价格为 62,300 美元，在过去 24 小时内下跌了 1.5%。

Technical Analysis Reveals Bitcoin's Exponential Decay Pattern

技术分析揭示了比特币的指数衰减模式

Brandt's analysis utilizes exponential decay to illustrate the diminishing magnitude of Bitcoin's bull market cycles. The inaugural rally witnessed a surge from $0.01 to $31.91, a remarkable 3,391x increase in less than two years. While subsequent bull markets have been more protracted, their magnitudes have been markedly smaller, consistently exhibiting an 80% exponential decay.

布兰特的分析利用指数衰减来说明比特币牛市周期的减弱程度。首次上涨见证了从 0.01 美元飙升至 31.91 美元，在不到两年的时间里上涨了 3,391 倍。虽然随后的牛市持续时间更长，但其幅度明显较小，始终呈现 80% 的指数衰减。

Bitcoin's recent ascent to its March high of $73,000 represented a 79.1% increase from the bear market low of $15,473 precipitated by the FTX exchange collapse in November 2022.

比特币最近升至 3 月份高点 73,000 美元，较 2022 年 11 月 FTX 交易所崩盘引发的熊市低点 15,473 美元上涨了 79.1%。

Consensus Opinion Favors Bullish Breakout

共识观点有利于看涨突破

Despite Brandt's cautious assessment, the predominant sentiment within the crypto community remains bullish. Many analysts anticipate a breakout from the current consolidation phase, driven by the post-halving momentum.

尽管布兰特做出了谨慎的评估，但加密货币社区内的主导情绪仍然看涨。许多分析师预计，在减半后势头的推动下，将突破当前的盘整阶段。

"The historical pattern suggests that Bitcoin is poised for further gains, potentially reaching the $140,000 to $160,000 range in the coming months," stated one analyst.

一位分析师表示：“历史模式表明，比特币有望进一步上涨，未来几个月可能达到 14 万至 16 万美元的区间。”

However, it is crucial to emphasize that predictions in the financial realm are inherently uncertain, and market dynamics can shift rapidly. As such, investors should conduct thorough due diligence and proceed with caution when making investment decisions.

然而，必须强调的是，金融领域的预测本质上是不确定的，而且市场动态可能会迅速变化。因此，投资者在做出投资决策时应进行彻底的尽职调查并谨慎行事。