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隨著中東緊張局勢加劇,黃金和原油等大宗商品價格顯著上漲,而比特幣則出現下滑。
Tensions in the Middle East are escalating once again, and this time around, the response from the financial markets has been particularly interesting. As might be expected, commodities like gold and crude oil are seeing notable price increases, while Bitcoin has taken a downturn. This divergence has sparked renewed discussion regarding Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset.
中東緊張局勢再次升級,而這次,金融市場的反應尤其引人注意。正如預期的那樣,黃金和原油等大宗商品的價格顯著上漲,而比特幣卻出現了下滑。這種分歧引發了關於比特幣作為避險資產角色的新討論。
According to a report by Martin Young for Cointelegraph, on Tuesday, gold surged by 1.4%, reaching $2,665 per ounce, close to its all-time high. At the same time, crude oil prices spiked by 7% to $72 per barrel. These gains came after airstrikes across Israel, with Israeli air defenses intercepting most of the 180 missiles launched. Bonds and the U.S. dollar also saw gains, further indicating investor anxiety.
根據 Cointelegraph 的 Martin Young 報道,金價週二飆升 1.4%,達到每盎司 2,665 美元,接近歷史高點。同時,原油價格飆升 7%,至每桶 72 美元。這些成果是在對以色列全境進行空襲之後取得的,以色列防空系統攔截了發射的 180 枚飛彈中的大部分。債券和美元也上漲,進一步顯示投資者的焦慮情緒。
“Investors are seeking refuge in gold amidst the uncertainty in the Middle East,” commented Li Xing, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness.
Exness金融市場策略師李星評論道:“在中東的不確定性中,投資者正在尋求黃金的避難。”
However, contrary to its usual label as a “safe haven,” Bitcoin dropped more than 3% over the same 24 hours, falling from an intraday high of $64,000 to a low of $60,315 before slightly recovering to $61,800. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at around $61,693, down 3.5% in the past 24-hour period. Coinglass data reported that around 154,770 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations amounting to $521 million.
然而,與它通常被稱為「避風港」的標籤相反,比特幣在同一 24 小時內下跌了 3% 以上,從盤中高點 64,000 美元跌至低點 60,315 美元,然後小幅回升至 61,800 美元。截至撰寫本文時,BTC 交易價格約為 61,693 美元,在過去 24 小時內下跌了 3.5%。 Coinglass 數據顯示,約有 154,770 名交易者被清算,清算總額達 5.21 億美元。
According to Reuters, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement that Iran’s missile attack on Israel was unsuccessful and promised a response. He remarked that Iran had made a significant miscalculation and would face consequences. Netanyahu emphasized that the Iranian regime underestimated Israel’s resolve to defend itself and retaliate against its adversaries.
根據路透社報道,以色列總理內塔尼亞胡在聲明中表示,伊朗對以色列的飛彈攻擊沒有成功,並承諾做出回應。他表示,伊朗做出了重大誤判,將面臨後果。內塔尼亞胡強調,伊朗政權低估了以色列自衛和報復對手的決心。
This isn’t the first time Bitcoin has reacted negatively to geopolitical conflict. A similar drop occurred in April following a drone attack by Iran on Israel. Some analysts, like Jeroen Blokland of Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund, believe that investors are selling Bitcoin to buy gold. Meanwhile, Adam Cochran and Jesse Colombo have questioned Bitcoin’s reliability as a safe haven, though the former's comments may have been partly made in jest. Precious metals, by contrast, tend to perform better during such crises. Colombo argued that Bitcoin behaves more like a risk asset, similar to tech stocks, which also fell.
這並不是比特幣第一次對地緣政治衝突做出負面反應。伊朗無人機襲擊以色列後,四月也出現了類似的下降。 Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund 的 Jeroen Blokland 等一些分析師認為,投資者正在出售比特幣以購買黃金。同時,亞當·科克倫(Adam Cochran)和傑西·科倫坡(Jesse Colombo)質疑比特幣作為避風港的可靠性,儘管前者的評論可能部分是開玩笑。相較之下,貴金屬在此類危機中往往表現較好。科倫坡認為,比特幣的表現更像是一種風險資產,類似同樣下跌的科技股。
The best analyses are based on one day of data
最好的分析是基於一天的數據
Now, juxtapose Bitcoin's intraday chart with gold:https://t.co/VmrayqxDNn
現在,將比特幣的日內圖表與黃金並列:https://t.co/VmrayqxDNn
It is also worth noting that, back in July 2023, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink suggested that Bitcoin could still serve as an alternative hedge against inflation.
另外值得注意的是,早在 2023 年 7 月,貝萊德執行長拉里·芬克就表示,比特幣仍然可以作為通膨的替代對沖工具。
Larry Fink today said he hopes SEC “looks at their ETF filing as a way to democratize crypto and make it cheaper.” Also says bitcoin is international asset, new gold. Seems all-in, wants to work w regulators to get approval. altho unsure of timetable. Via Fox Business pic.twitter.com/k8hiNhCp7s
拉里·芬克 (Larry Fink) 今天表示,他希望 SEC“將他們的 ETF 備案視為實現加密貨幣民主化並降低其成本的一種方式。”還說比特幣是國際資產、新黃金。似乎全力以赴,希望與監管機構合作以獲得批准。雖然不確定時間表。透過福克斯商業 pic.twitter.com/k8hiNhCp7s
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