“VanEck 表示，到 2049 年，美國比特幣儲備可能將國債削減 35%”

資產管理公司VanEck表示，如果美國根據參議員Cynthia Lummis提出的法案建立100萬個比特幣的儲備，美國可以在未來24年內將國債減少35%。

VanEck stated that if the United States establishes a bitcoin reserve of 1 million BTC, as proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, the country could reduce its national debt by 35% over the next 24 years.

VanEck 表示，如果美國按照參議員 Cynthia Lummis 的提議建立 100 萬比特幣的比特幣儲備，該國可以在未來 24 年內將其國債減少 35%。

VanEck estimates that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of bitcoin will reach 25% by 2049, reaching $42.3 million, while the CAGR of U.S. national debt will reach 5%, increasing from $37 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $119.3 trillion.

VanEck預計，到2049年，比特幣的複合年增長率（CAGR）將達到25%，達到4,230萬美元，而美國國債的複合年增長率將達到5%，從2025年初的37兆美元增至119.3兆美元。

“This reserve would equate to 35% of the national debt by 2049, offsetting roughly $42 trillion in debt,” wrote Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and Nathan Frankovitz, an investment analyst, in a note on Dec. 20.

VanEck 數位資產研究主管Matthew Sigel 和投資分析師Nathan Frankovitz 在12 月20 日的報告中寫道：「到2049 年，這項儲備將相當於國家債務的35%，抵消約42 兆美元的債務。

It is expected that U.S. national debt will increase alongside the growth of bitcoin reserves from 2025 to 2049. Source: VanEck

預計2025年至2049年，美國公債將隨著比特幣儲備的成長而增加。

The "bullish" forecast assumes that the 25% CAGR for bitcoin will start from a price point of $200,000 in 2025. Bitcoin is currently trading at $95,360, needing to more than double to reach the starting point indicated by VanEck.

「看漲」預測假設比特幣 25% 的複合年增長率將從 2025 年 20 萬美元的價格點開始。

A rise in the price of bitcoin to $42.3 million would mean that it comprises about 18% of global financial assets—significantly higher than its current share of approximately 0.22% in today's $90 trillion market.

比特幣價格上漲至 4,230 萬美元意味著它約佔全球金融資產的 18%，遠高於其在當今 90 兆美元市場中約 0.22% 的份額。

Projections for U.S. national debt and bitcoin reserve holdings, assuming a 25% CAGR for bitcoin. Source: VanEck

對美國公債和比特幣儲備持有量的預測，假設比特幣的複合年增長率為 25%。資料來源：範艾克

The concept of a bitcoin reserve was proposed by Donald Trump's new administration, which drove the price of bitcoin above six figures, but Senator Lummis's bill has yet to be considered by the Senate or the House of Representatives.

比特幣儲備的概念是由唐納德·川普的新政府提出的，這使得比特幣的價格突破了六位數，但參議員魯米斯的法案尚未得到參議院或眾議院的審議。

Earlier this month, Strike founder and CEO Jack Mallers claimed that Trump could issue an executive order on his first day in office, designating bitcoin as a reserve asset.

本月早些時候，Strike 創始人兼執行長 Jack Mallers 聲稱，川普可能在上任第一天就發布行政命令，將比特幣指定為儲備資產。

According to the Lummis bill, the U.S. could utilize the 198,100 BTC it already holds from asset seizures, while the remaining 801,900 BTC could be funded through emergency support functions, selling a portion of its $455 billion gold reserves in exchange for bitcoin, or both—none of which would require printing money or taxpayer funds, noted VanEck.

根據Lummis 法案，美國可以利用其已從資產扣押中持有的198,100 BTC，而剩餘的801,900 BTC 可以透過緊急支援功能提供資金，出售其4550 億美元黃金儲備的一部分以換取比特幣，或者兩者兼換取比特幣，或者兩者兼換取而有之——範埃克指出，這些都不需要印鈔票或納稅人的資金。

Sigel and Frankovitz stated that the state, institutional, and corporate adoption of bitcoin in the U.S. will also boost CAGR projections for bitcoin and ether exchange-traded fund issuers.

Sigel 和 Frankovitz 表示，美國國家、機構和企業對比特幣的採用也將提高比特幣和以太幣交易所交易基金發行人的複合年增長率預測。

Sigel wrote in an X post on Dec. 21 that the member nation-states of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) could also influence the price of bitcoin, leading to its increased use as a currency.

Sigel 在 12 月 21 日的 X 貼文中寫道，金磚國家聯盟的成員國（巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非）也可能影響比特幣的價格，導致比特幣作為貨幣的使用增加。

“For those member states looking to avoid the exponentially growing dollar sanctions, bitcoin is likely to be widely adopted as a settlement currency for global trade,” they noted.

他們指出：“對於那些希望避免指數級增長的美元製裁的成員國來說，比特幣可能會被廣泛採用作為全球貿易的結算貨幣。”