“VanEck 表示，到 2049 年，美国比特币储备可能将国债削减 35%”

资产管理公司VanEck表示，如果美国根据参议员Cynthia Lummis提出的法案建立100万比特币的储备，美国可以在未来24年内将其国债减少35%。

VanEck stated that if the United States establishes a bitcoin reserve of 1 million BTC, as proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, the country could reduce its national debt by 35% over the next 24 years.

VanEck 表示，如果美国按照参议员 Cynthia Lummis 的提议建立 100 万 BTC 的比特币储备，该国可以在未来 24 年内将其国债减少 35%。

VanEck estimates that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of bitcoin will reach 25% by 2049, reaching $42.3 million, while the CAGR of U.S. national debt will reach 5%, increasing from $37 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $119.3 trillion.

VanEck预计，到2049年，比特币的复合年增长率（CAGR）将达到25%，达到4230万美元，而美国国债的复合年增长率将达到5%，从2025年初的37万亿美元增至119.3万亿美元。

“This reserve would equate to 35% of the national debt by 2049, offsetting roughly $42 trillion in debt,” wrote Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and Nathan Frankovitz, an investment analyst, in a note on Dec. 20.

VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 和投资分析师 Nathan Frankovitz 在 12 月 20 日的一份报告中写道：“到 2049 年，这一储备将相当于国家债务的 35%，抵消大约 42 万亿美元的债务。” 。

It is expected that U.S. national debt will increase alongside the growth of bitcoin reserves from 2025 to 2049. Source: VanEck

预计从 2025 年到 2049 年，美国国债将随着比特币储备的增长而增加。资料来源：VanEck

The "bullish" forecast assumes that the 25% CAGR for bitcoin will start from a price point of $200,000 in 2025. Bitcoin is currently trading at $95,360, needing to more than double to reach the starting point indicated by VanEck.

“看涨”预测假设比特币 25% 的复合年增长率将从 2025 年 200,000 美元的价格点开始。比特币目前的交易价格为 95,360 美元，需要增加一倍以上才能达到 VanEck 指出的起点。

A rise in the price of bitcoin to $42.3 million would mean that it comprises about 18% of global financial assets—significantly higher than its current share of approximately 0.22% in today's $90 trillion market.

比特币价格上涨至 4230 万美元意味着它约占全球金融资产的 18%，远高于其目前在 90 万亿美元市场中约 0.22% 的份额。

Projections for U.S. national debt and bitcoin reserve holdings, assuming a 25% CAGR for bitcoin. Source: VanEck

对美国国债和比特币储备持有量的预测，假设比特币的复合年增长率为 25%。资料来源：范埃克

The concept of a bitcoin reserve was proposed by Donald Trump's new administration, which drove the price of bitcoin above six figures, but Senator Lummis's bill has yet to be considered by the Senate or the House of Representatives.

比特币储备的概念是由唐纳德·特朗普新政府提出的，这使得比特币的价格升至六位数以上，但参议员鲁米斯的法案尚未得到参议院或众议院的审议。

Earlier this month, Strike founder and CEO Jack Mallers claimed that Trump could issue an executive order on his first day in office, designating bitcoin as a reserve asset.

本月早些时候，Strike 创始人兼首席执行官杰克·马勒斯 (Jack Mallers) 声称，特朗普可能在上任第一天就发布行政命令，将比特币指定为储备资产。

According to the Lummis bill, the U.S. could utilize the 198,100 BTC it already holds from asset seizures, while the remaining 801,900 BTC could be funded through emergency support functions, selling a portion of its $455 billion gold reserves in exchange for bitcoin, or both—none of which would require printing money or taxpayer funds, noted VanEck.

根据 Lummis 法案，美国可以利用其已从资产扣押中持有的 198,100 BTC，而剩余的 801,900 BTC 可以通过紧急支持功能提供资金，出售其 4550 亿美元黄金储备的一部分以换取比特币，或者两者兼而有之——范埃克指出，这些都不需要印钞票或纳税人的资金。

Sigel and Frankovitz stated that the state, institutional, and corporate adoption of bitcoin in the U.S. will also boost CAGR projections for bitcoin and ether exchange-traded fund issuers.

Sigel 和 Frankovitz 表示，美国国家、机构和企业对比特币的采用也将提高比特币和以太币交易所交易基金发行人的复合年增长率预测。

Sigel wrote in an X post on Dec. 21 that the member nation-states of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) could also influence the price of bitcoin, leading to its increased use as a currency.

Sigel 在 12 月 21 日的 X 帖子中写道，金砖国家联盟的成员国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非）也可能影响比特币的价格，从而导致比特币作为货币的使用增加。

“For those member states looking to avoid the exponentially growing dollar sanctions, bitcoin is likely to be widely adopted as a settlement currency for global trade,” they noted.

他们指出：“对于那些希望避免呈指数级增长的美元制裁的成员国来说，比特币可能会被广泛采用作为全球贸易的结算货币。”