比特幣回檔：修正還是看跌逆轉？

儘管 3 月 20 日出現看漲反彈，但比特幣 (BTC) 未能延續漲勢，表明空頭在緩解反彈時積極拋售。這種回調削弱了市場情緒，導致現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）連續四天出現淨流出。然而，鏈上數據表明，BTC 多頭市場依然完好，短期持有者僅貢獻了總投資的 48%，遠低於通常與市場結束相關的 84-92% 範圍。分析師認為，即將到來的比特幣減半之前的修正對於牛市的長期可持續性來說是一個健康的信號，因為拋物線走勢很少是可持續的。

Bitcoin's Pullback: A Sign of Correction or a Bearish Reversal?

比特幣的回檔：修正的跡象還是看跌逆轉？

Despite its impressive rally on March 20th, Bitcoin (BTC) failed to sustain its momentum, indicating that bears remain active in the market. This pullback has weakened sentiment in the short term, leading to net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for four consecutive days, as reported by Farside Investors.

儘管 3 月 20 日比特幣 (BTC) 出現令人印象深刻的反彈，但未能維持其勢頭，表明空頭在市場上仍然活躍。根據 Farside Investors 報導，這種回檔在短期內削弱了市場情緒，導致現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）連續四天出現淨流出。

However, a recent analysis by CryptoQuant suggests that the Bitcoin bull market may not have reached its conclusion. The on-chain data analytics firm noted that the bull market typically culminates with "84%-92% of investment" from short-term holders, while this figure currently stands at 48%.

然而，CryptoQuant 最近的一項分析表明，比特幣牛市可能尚未得出結論。這家鏈上數據分析公司指出，多頭市場通常以「84%-92%的投資」來自短期持有者而達到頂峰，而目前這一數字為 48%。

Implications of the Correction

修正的影響

The correction before the upcoming Bitcoin Halving is viewed by many as a positive sign for the long-term sustainability of the bull market. Parabolic moves, characterized by rapid and unsustainable price increases, are rarely sustainable. The recent dip may serve to shake out weak hands and provide opportunities for stronger hands to accumulate more Bitcoin.

許多人認為即將到來的比特幣減半之前的調整是牛市長期可持續性的積極信號。以快速且不可持續的價格上漲為特徵的拋物線走勢很少是可持續的。最近的下跌可能有助於擺脫弱手，並為強手提供累積更多比特幣的機會。

Technical Analysis of Top Cryptocurrencies

頂級加密貨幣的技術分析

To gauge the potential trajectory of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, we will now analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies:

為了衡量比特幣和其他加密貨幣的潛在軌跡，我們現在將分析前 10 名加密貨幣的圖表：

1. Bitcoin (BTC)

1. 比特幣（BTC）

BTC rebounded sharply from its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $61,736, indicating that traders perceive dips as buying opportunities. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) has flattened, and the relative strength index (RSI) is just above the midpoint, suggesting a range-bound action in the near term. The BTC/USDT pair may face resistance at $69,000 and support at $60,775. Consolidation near the high suggests that bulls are holding on to their positions and not rushing to sell. A break above $69,000 could open the doors for a retest of the all-time high at $73,777. Conversely, a decline below $60,775 could expose the 50-day SMA at $57,623.

BTC 從 61,736 美元的 38.2% 斐波那契回撤位大幅反彈，表明交易者將逢低視為買入機會。 20日指數移動平均線（EMA）已趨於平緩，相對強弱指數（RSI）略高於中點，顯示近期將出現區間波動。 BTC/USDT 貨幣對可能面臨 69,000 美元的阻力和 60,775 美元的支撐。高點附近的盤整顯示多頭正在堅守頭寸，並不急於拋售。突破 69,000 美元可能為重新測試歷史高點 73,777 美元打開大門。相反，跌破 60,775 美元可能會暴露 50 日移動平均線 57,623 美元的風險。

2. Ether (ETH)

2. 以太幣（ETH）

ETH snapped back from its 50-day SMA ($3,161) on March 20th, but the bulls failed to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($3,537). The ETH/USDT pair turned down from the 20-day EMA on March 22nd, indicating a shift in sentiment and selling on rallies. Sellers may attempt to break the 50-day SMA support. A successful breach could lead to a decline to $2,717. Alternatively, a rebound off the 50-day SMA would suggest a range-bound movement. Bullish momentum could resume upon a rise above $3,700, potentially targeting the resistance at $4,100.

3 月 20 日，ETH 從 50 日均線（3,161 美元）反彈，但多頭未能將價格推升至 20 日均線（3,537 美元）上方。 ETH/USDT 貨幣對從 3 月 22 日的 20 日均線下跌，顯示市場情緒轉變並逢高拋售。賣家可能會嘗試突破 50 日移動平均線支撐。成功的違規可能會導致價格跌至 2,717 美元。或者，從 50 日移動平均線反彈將表示區間波動。當升破 3,700 美元時，看漲勢頭可能會恢復，阻力位可能是 4,100 美元。

3. BNB (BNB)

3、幣安幣（BNB）

BNB turned up from its 20-day EMA ($520) on March 20th, but its relief rally faced resistance near $590. The long wick on the March 22nd candlestick indicates selling pressure at higher levels. Bears may attempt to drive the price below the 20-day EMA, potentially leading to a drop to the breakout level of $460. This level is likely to attract significant buying. A break above $590 could push BNB/USDT to the overhead resistance at $645 and potentially higher to $692.

BNB 於 3 月 20 日從 20 日均線（520 美元）上漲，但其反彈勢頭在 590 美元附近遇到阻力。 3 月 22 日燭台上的長影線表明更高程度的拋售壓力。空頭可能會試圖將價格推低至 20 日均線下方，這可能會導致價格跌至 460 美元的突破水平。這個水平可能會吸引大量購買。突破 590 美元可能會將 BNB/USDT 推至上方阻力位 645 美元，並可能進一步升至 692 美元。

4. Solana (SOL)

4. 索拉納 (SUN)

SOL witnessed strong buying at its 20-day EMA ($163) on March 20th, but the bulls failed to drive the price above $205. The inability to clear the overhead resistance suggests that bears are active at higher levels. A break below the 20-day EMA could signal a shift in momentum, potentially leading to a decline to the support at $126. Conversely, a rebound from the current level or the 20-day EMA would indicate continued buying on dips. SOL/USDT could then rise to $205 and potentially higher to $267.

3 月 20 日，SOL 在 20 日均線（163 美元）出現強勁買盤，但多頭未能將價格推至 205 美元上方。無法清除上方阻力表示空頭在較高水平活躍。跌破 20 日均線可能預示著動能的轉變，可能導致跌至 126 美元的支撐位。相反，從目前水準或 20 日均線反彈將表示繼續逢低買盤。 SOL/USDT 隨後可能上漲至 205 美元，甚至可能進一步上漲至 267 美元。

5. XRP (XRP)

5. 瑞波幣（XRP）

XRP bounced off its uptrend line on March 20th and rose above the 20-day EMA ($0.62) on March 21st, signaling buying at lower levels. If buyers push the price above $0.67, XRP/USDT is likely to gain momentum and reach the formidable resistance at $0.74. A break above this level could signal the start of a new leg of the uptrend, targeting $0.95. Conversely, a decline and a break below the 20-day EMA would suggest that higher levels attract sellers. The pair may oscillate between $0.67 and the uptrend line. A slide below the uptrend line could lead to a drop to $0.52.

XRP 於 3 月 20 日從上升趨勢線反彈，並於 3 月 21 日昇至 20 日均線（0.62 美元）上方，顯示在較低水平進行買盤。如果買家將價格推高至 0.67 美元以上，XRP/USDT 可能會獲得動力並達到 0.74 美元的強大阻力。突破該水平可能標誌著新一輪上升趨勢的開始，目標為 0.95 美元。相反，如果下跌並跌破 20 日均線，則表明更高的水平會吸引賣家。該貨幣對可能在 0.67 美元和上升趨勢線之間振盪。跌破上升趨勢線可能導致跌至 0.52 美元。

6. Cardano (ADA)

6.卡爾達諾（ADA）

ADA bulls successfully defended the $0.57 support on March 20th but are struggling to sustain the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.63). The 20-day EMA ($0.67) has turned down, and the RSI is in negative territory, indicating that bears have the upper hand. Sellers may attempt to drive the price below the $0.57 support. A successful breach could lead to a drop to $0.53 and possibly $0.46. Conversely, a rebound off the $0.57 support would suggest that bulls are defending the level. ADA/USDT would then attempt to rise towards the 20-day EMA. A break above $0.70 would indicate an end to the correction.

3 月 20 日，ADA 多頭成功守住了 0.57 美元的支撐位，但正在努力將價格維持在 50 日移動平均線（0.63 美元）之上。 20 日均線（0.67 美元）已轉向下方，RSI 處於負值區域，表明空頭佔上風。賣家可能會嘗試將價格壓低至 0.57 美元的支撐位以下。成功的違規可能會導致價格跌至 0.53 美元，甚至可能跌至 0.46 美元。相反，從 0.57 美元支撐位反彈將表明多頭正在捍衛該水平。然後 ADA/USDT 將嘗試上漲至 20 日均線。突破 0.70 美元將表明調整結束。

7. Dogecoin (DOGE)

7.狗狗幣（DOGE）

DOGE's relief rally rose above the 20-day EMA ($0.15) on March 20th, indicating solid buying at lower levels. The bulls aim to keep the price above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, DOGE/USDT will attempt to rise above $0.16 and challenge the overhead resistance of $0.19. This level may prove difficult to break. A decline from this resistance could lead to a range-bound movement between $0.12 and $0.19. The next leg of the uptrend is likely to begin once buyers push and maintain the price above $0.19, potentially targeting $0.23.

3 月 20 日，DOGE 的緩解性反彈升至 20 日均線（0.15 美元）之上，顯示較低的買盤強勁。多頭的目標是將價格保持在 20 日均線之上。如果成功，DOGE/USDT 將嘗試升至 0.16 美元上方並挑戰 0.19 美元的上方阻力位。這個水平可能很難突破。從該阻力位下跌可能會導致 0.12 美元至 0.19 美元之間的區間波動。一旦買家將價格推高並維持在 0.19 美元以上，下一階段的上升趨勢可能會開始，目標可能是 0.23 美元。

8. Avalanche (AVAX)

8.雪崩（AVAX）

AVAX buyers have managed to keep the price above the breakout level of $50, suggesting that they are trying to establish this level as support. The rising 20-day EMA ($51) and the RSI in positive territory indicate that the bulls have the edge. AVAX/USDT may gradually rise to the $62-$65 resistance zone. Sellers are expected to defend this zone. If the price declines from this zone, the pair may consolidate between $50 and $65. The uptrend could resume after buyers overcome the obstacle at $65, potentially reaching $75. A slide below $50 would favor the bears.

AVAX 買家已成功將價格保持在 50 美元的突破水平之上，這表明他們正試圖將該水平確立為支撐位。不斷上升的 20 日均線（51 美元）和 RSI 處於正值區域表明多頭具有優勢。 AVAX/USDT 可能會逐漸升至 62-65 美元阻力區。預計賣家將捍衛這一區域。如果價格從該區域下跌，該貨幣對可能會在 50 美元至 65 美元之間盤整。在買家克服 65 美元的障礙後，上漲趨勢可能會恢復，有可能達到 75 美元。跌破 50 美元將有利於空頭。

9. Shiba Inu (SHIB)

9.柴犬（SHIB）

The bulls' failure to push SHIB above the breakdown level of $0.000029 suggests that bears are selling on rallies. The flattish 20-day EMA ($0.000027) and the RSI just above the midpoint indicate a balance between supply and demand. This equilibrium will tilt in favor of the bulls if the price rises above the resistance line.

多頭未能將 SHIB 推至 0.000029 美元的崩潰水平之上，這表明空頭正在逢高拋售。持平的 20 日均線（0.000027 美元）和略高於中點的 RSI 表示供需平衡。如果價格升至阻力線上方，這種平衡將向多頭傾斜。