比特币回调：修正还是看跌逆转？

尽管 3 月 20 日出现看涨反弹，但比特币 (BTC) 未能延续涨势，表明空头在缓解反弹时积极抛售。这种回调削弱了市场情绪，导致现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）连续四天出现净流出。然而，链上数据表明，BTC 牛市依然完好，短期持有者仅贡献了总投资的 48%，远低于通常与市场结束相关的 84-92% 范围。分析师认为，即将到来的比特币减半之前的修正对于牛市的长期可持续性来说是一个健康的信号，因为抛物线走势很少是可持续的。

Bitcoin's Pullback: A Sign of Correction or a Bearish Reversal?

比特币的回调：修正的迹象还是看跌逆转？

Despite its impressive rally on March 20th, Bitcoin (BTC) failed to sustain its momentum, indicating that bears remain active in the market. This pullback has weakened sentiment in the short term, leading to net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for four consecutive days, as reported by Farside Investors.

尽管 3 月 20 日比特币 (BTC) 出现令人印象深刻的反弹，但未能维持其势头，表明空头在市场上仍然活跃。据 Farside Investors 报道，这种回调在短期内削弱了市场情绪，导致现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）连续四天出现净流出。

However, a recent analysis by CryptoQuant suggests that the Bitcoin bull market may not have reached its conclusion. The on-chain data analytics firm noted that the bull market typically culminates with "84%-92% of investment" from short-term holders, while this figure currently stands at 48%.

然而，CryptoQuant 最近的一项分析表明，比特币牛市可能尚未得出结论。这家链上数据分析公司指出，牛市通常以“84%-92%的投资”来自短期持有者而达到顶峰，而目前这一数字为 48%。

Implications of the Correction

修正的影响

The correction before the upcoming Bitcoin Halving is viewed by many as a positive sign for the long-term sustainability of the bull market. Parabolic moves, characterized by rapid and unsustainable price increases, are rarely sustainable. The recent dip may serve to shake out weak hands and provide opportunities for stronger hands to accumulate more Bitcoin.

许多人认为即将到来的比特币减半之前的调整是牛市长期可持续性的积极信号。以快速且不可持续的价格上涨为特征的抛物线走势很少是可持续的。最近的下跌可能有助于摆脱弱手，并为强手提供积累更多比特币的机会。

Technical Analysis of Top Cryptocurrencies

顶级加密货币的技术分析

To gauge the potential trajectory of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, we will now analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies:

为了衡量比特币和其他加密货币的潜在轨迹，我们现在将分析前 10 名加密货币的图表：

1. Bitcoin (BTC)

1. 比特币（BTC）

BTC rebounded sharply from its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $61,736, indicating that traders perceive dips as buying opportunities. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) has flattened, and the relative strength index (RSI) is just above the midpoint, suggesting a range-bound action in the near term. The BTC/USDT pair may face resistance at $69,000 and support at $60,775. Consolidation near the high suggests that bulls are holding on to their positions and not rushing to sell. A break above $69,000 could open the doors for a retest of the all-time high at $73,777. Conversely, a decline below $60,775 could expose the 50-day SMA at $57,623.

BTC 从 61,736 美元的 38.2% 斐波那契回撤位大幅反弹，表明交易者将逢低视为买入机会。 20日指数移动平均线（EMA）已经趋于平缓，相对强弱指数（RSI）略高于中点，表明近期将出现区间波动。 BTC/USDT 货币对可能面临 69,000 美元的阻力和 60,775 美元的支撑。高点附近的盘整表明多头正在坚守头寸，并不急于抛售。突破 69,000 美元可能为重新测试历史高点 73,777 美元打开大门。相反，跌破 60,775 美元可能会暴露 50 日移动平均线 57,623 美元的风险。

2. Ether (ETH)

2. 以太币（ETH）

ETH snapped back from its 50-day SMA ($3,161) on March 20th, but the bulls failed to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($3,537). The ETH/USDT pair turned down from the 20-day EMA on March 22nd, indicating a shift in sentiment and selling on rallies. Sellers may attempt to break the 50-day SMA support. A successful breach could lead to a decline to $2,717. Alternatively, a rebound off the 50-day SMA would suggest a range-bound movement. Bullish momentum could resume upon a rise above $3,700, potentially targeting the resistance at $4,100.

3 月 20 日，ETH 从 50 日均线（3,161 美元）反弹，但多头未能将价格推升至 20 日均线（3,537 美元）上方。 ETH/USDT 货币对从 3 月 22 日的 20 日均线下跌，表明市场情绪发生转变并逢高抛售。卖家可能会尝试突破 50 日移动平均线支撑。成功的违规可能会导致价格跌至 2,717 美元。或者，从 50 日移动平均线反弹将表明区间波动。当升破 3,700 美元时，看涨势头可能会恢复，阻力位可能是 4,100 美元。

3. BNB (BNB)

3、币安币（BNB）

BNB turned up from its 20-day EMA ($520) on March 20th, but its relief rally faced resistance near $590. The long wick on the March 22nd candlestick indicates selling pressure at higher levels. Bears may attempt to drive the price below the 20-day EMA, potentially leading to a drop to the breakout level of $460. This level is likely to attract significant buying. A break above $590 could push BNB/USDT to the overhead resistance at $645 and potentially higher to $692.

BNB 于 3 月 20 日从 20 日均线（520 美元）上涨，但其反弹势头在 590 美元附近遇到阻力。 3 月 22 日烛台上的长影线表明更高水平的抛售压力。空头可能会试图将价格推低至 20 日均线下方，从而可能导致价格跌至 460 美元的突破水平。这个水平可能会吸引大量购买。突破 590 美元可能会将 BNB/USDT 推至上方阻力位 645 美元，并可能进一步升至 692 美元。

4. Solana (SOL)

4. 索拉纳 (SUN)

SOL witnessed strong buying at its 20-day EMA ($163) on March 20th, but the bulls failed to drive the price above $205. The inability to clear the overhead resistance suggests that bears are active at higher levels. A break below the 20-day EMA could signal a shift in momentum, potentially leading to a decline to the support at $126. Conversely, a rebound from the current level or the 20-day EMA would indicate continued buying on dips. SOL/USDT could then rise to $205 and potentially higher to $267.

3 月 20 日，SOL 在 20 日均线（163 美元）出现强劲买盘，但多头未能将价格推至 205 美元上方。无法清除上方阻力表明空头在较高水平上活跃。跌破 20 日均线可能预示着动能的转变，可能导致跌至 126 美元的支撑位。相反，从当前水平或 20 日均线反弹将表明继续逢低买盘。 SOL/USDT 随后可能上涨至 205 美元，甚至可能进一步上涨至 267 美元。

5. XRP (XRP)

5. 瑞波币（XRP）

XRP bounced off its uptrend line on March 20th and rose above the 20-day EMA ($0.62) on March 21st, signaling buying at lower levels. If buyers push the price above $0.67, XRP/USDT is likely to gain momentum and reach the formidable resistance at $0.74. A break above this level could signal the start of a new leg of the uptrend, targeting $0.95. Conversely, a decline and a break below the 20-day EMA would suggest that higher levels attract sellers. The pair may oscillate between $0.67 and the uptrend line. A slide below the uptrend line could lead to a drop to $0.52.

XRP 于 3 月 20 日从上升趋势线反弹，并于 3 月 21 日升至 20 日均线（0.62 美元）上方，表明在较低水平进行买盘。如果买家将价格推高至 0.67 美元以上，XRP/USDT 可能会获得动力并达到 0.74 美元的强大阻力。突破该水平可能标志着新一轮上升趋势的开始，目标为 0.95 美元。相反，如果下跌并跌破 20 日均线，则表明更高的水平会吸引卖家。该货币对可能在 0.67 美元和上升趋势线之间振荡。跌破上升趋势线可能导致跌至 0.52 美元。

6. Cardano (ADA)

6.卡尔达诺（ADA）

ADA bulls successfully defended the $0.57 support on March 20th but are struggling to sustain the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.63). The 20-day EMA ($0.67) has turned down, and the RSI is in negative territory, indicating that bears have the upper hand. Sellers may attempt to drive the price below the $0.57 support. A successful breach could lead to a drop to $0.53 and possibly $0.46. Conversely, a rebound off the $0.57 support would suggest that bulls are defending the level. ADA/USDT would then attempt to rise towards the 20-day EMA. A break above $0.70 would indicate an end to the correction.

3 月 20 日，ADA 多头成功守住了 0.57 美元的支撑位，但正在努力将价格维持在 50 日移动平均线（0.63 美元）之上。 20 日均线（0.67 美元）已转向下方，RSI 处于负值区域，表明空头占据上风。卖家可能会尝试将价格压低至 0.57 美元的支撑位以下。成功的违规可能会导致价格跌至 0.53 美元，甚至可能跌至 0.46 美元。相反，从 0.57 美元支撑位反弹将表明多头正在捍卫该水平。然后 ADA/USDT 将尝试上涨至 20 日均线。突破 0.70 美元将表明调整结束。

7. Dogecoin (DOGE)

7.狗狗币（DOGE）

DOGE's relief rally rose above the 20-day EMA ($0.15) on March 20th, indicating solid buying at lower levels. The bulls aim to keep the price above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, DOGE/USDT will attempt to rise above $0.16 and challenge the overhead resistance of $0.19. This level may prove difficult to break. A decline from this resistance could lead to a range-bound movement between $0.12 and $0.19. The next leg of the uptrend is likely to begin once buyers push and maintain the price above $0.19, potentially targeting $0.23.

3 月 20 日，DOGE 的缓解性反弹升至 20 日均线（0.15 美元）之上，表明较低水平的买盘强劲。多头的目标是将价格保持在 20 日均线之上。如果成功，DOGE/USDT 将尝试升至 0.16 美元上方并挑战 0.19 美元的上方阻力位。这个水平可能很难突破。从该阻力位下跌可能会导致 0.12 美元至 0.19 美元之间的区间波动。一旦买家将价格推高并维持在 0.19 美元以上，下一阶段的上升趋势可能会开始，目标可能是 0.23 美元。

8. Avalanche (AVAX)

8.雪崩（AVAX）

AVAX buyers have managed to keep the price above the breakout level of $50, suggesting that they are trying to establish this level as support. The rising 20-day EMA ($51) and the RSI in positive territory indicate that the bulls have the edge. AVAX/USDT may gradually rise to the $62-$65 resistance zone. Sellers are expected to defend this zone. If the price declines from this zone, the pair may consolidate between $50 and $65. The uptrend could resume after buyers overcome the obstacle at $65, potentially reaching $75. A slide below $50 would favor the bears.

AVAX 买家已成功将价格保持在 50 美元的突破水平之上，这表明他们正试图将该水平确立为支撑位。不断上升的 20 日均线（51 美元）和 RSI 处于正值区域表明多头具有优势。 AVAX/USDT 可能会逐渐升至 62-65 美元阻力区。预计卖家将捍卫这一区域。如果价格从该区域下跌，该货币对可能会在 50 美元至 65 美元之间盘整。在买家克服 65 美元的障碍后，上涨趋势可能会恢复，有可能达到 75 美元。跌破 50 美元将有利于空头。

9. Shiba Inu (SHIB)

9.柴犬（SHIB）

The bulls' failure to push SHIB above the breakdown level of $0.000029 suggests that bears are selling on rallies. The flattish 20-day EMA ($0.000027) and the RSI just above the midpoint indicate a balance between supply and demand. This equilibrium will tilt in favor of the bulls if the price rises above the resistance line.

多头未能将 SHIB 推至 0.000029 美元的崩溃水平之上，这表明空头正在逢高抛售。持平的 20 日均线（0.000027 美元）和略高于中点的 RSI 表明供需平衡。如果价格升至阻力线上方，这种平衡将向多头倾斜。