比特幣價格預測：Polymarket、Kalshi 和 Fundstrat 預計比特幣 (BTC) 到年底將達到 10 萬美元或更多

因此，自從唐納德·川普贏得大選以來，隨著各種加密貨幣的飆升，也許預測市場可以準確回答「比特幣會漲到多高？」的​​問題。

With various cryptocurrencies soaring since Donald Trump won the election, perhaps prediction markets can accurately answer the question, “How high will Bitcoin go?”

自從唐納川普贏得大選以來，隨著各種加密貨幣的飆升，也許預測市場可以準確回答「比特幣會漲到多高？」的​​問題。

On the crypto-based Polymarket, where the so-called French whale netted a massive post-election windfall, bettors have several options for Bitcoin, which is currently trading at around $91,000.

在基於加密貨幣的 Polymarket 上，所謂的法國鯨魚在選舉後獲得了巨額橫財，投注者有多種比特幣選擇，目前比特幣的交易價格約為 91,000 美元。

For a contract on what price Bitcoin will hit in November, the odds are 72% that it will reach $95,000. The price with the next highest odds is $105,000 at 23%, followed by $110,000 at 14%.

對於 11 月比特幣價格的合約，其達到 95,000 美元的可能性為 72%。第二高賠率的價格是 105,000 美元（23%），其次是 110,000 美元（14%）。

A separate contract that asks if Bitcoin will be above $90,000 on Nov. 22 shows 60% odds, while another contract asking if Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in November has only a 42% chance.

一份詢問比特幣在 11 月 22 日是否會達到 90,000 美元的單獨合約顯示了 60% 的可能性，而另一份詢問比特幣在 11 月是否會達到 100,000 美元的合約只有 42% 的可能性。

On the prediction market Kalshi, a contract that asks how high Bitcoin will get before 2026 shows 52% odds for $125,000 or above and 44% odds for $150,000 and above.

在預測市場 Kalshi 上，一份詢問比特幣在 2026 年之前會漲到多高的合約顯示，比特幣達到 125,000 美元或以上的可能性為 52%，達到 150,000 美元或以上的可能性為 44%。

If prediction markets aren't your thing and you prefer a forecast from a more conventional Wall Street analyst, there's Fundstrat Global Advisors cofounder Tom Lee.

如果您不喜歡預測市場，並且您更喜歡更傳統的華爾街分析師的預測，那麼 Fundstrat Global Advisors 聯合創始人湯姆·李 (Tom Lee) 就是您的選擇。

Among the forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, his stock market call in 2023 turned out to be the most accurate.

在彭博調查的預測者中，他對 2023 年股市的預測是最準確的。

As for Bitcoin, he said in March that it could hit $150,000 by year-end. While that looks less likely now with just a month and a half left in the year, Lee told CNBC last week that “six figures” is still possible before the end of the year with more gains in 2025 in 2026.

至於比特幣，他 3 月表示，到年底比特幣價格可能會達到 15 萬美元。雖然今年只剩下一個半月的時間，這種情況看起來不太可能發生，但李上週對CNBC 表示，年底前仍有可能實現「六位數」的增長，2025 年和2026 年的漲幅會更大。

“I think now because post-halving, Bitcoin is becoming a lot more relevant, and I think maybe the regulatory overhang is diminishing, there's a lot of upside from here,” he explained.

「我認為現在因為減半後，比特幣變得更加重要，而且我認為監管懸而未決的問題可能正在減少，因此有很多上行空間，」他解釋道。

Bitcoin has already soared 32% so far in November alone and has more than doubled this year. To get to $100,000, it would have to climb another 10%.

到目前為止，光是 11 月比特幣就已經飆升了 32%，今年已經上漲了一倍多。要達到 10 萬美元，還必須再上漲 10%。

But there are signs that the post-election rally is stalling as the stock market notched a losing week. Still, key components of the “Trump trade” are riding high, like Tesla stock, Treasury yields, and the dollar.

但有跡象表明，隨著股市連續一周下跌，大選後的漲勢正在停滯。儘管如此，「川普交易」的關鍵組成部分仍在走高，例如特斯拉股票、美國國債殖利率和美元。

Meanwhile, Quinn Thompson, the founder of the crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, told Fortune this past week that he's optimistic Bitcoin will attain the $100,000 milestone soon.

與此同時，加密貨幣對沖基金 Lekker Capital 的創始人 Quinn Thompson 上週向《財星》雜誌表示，他對比特幣很快就會達到 10 萬美元的里程碑感到樂觀。

“I feel good that we hit it by year-end,” he said. “Very possible by end of month, but we'll see.”

「我很高興我們在年底之前實現了目標，」他說。 “很有可能到月底，但我們拭目以待。”