比特币价格预测：Polymarket、Kalshi 和 Fundstrat 预计比特币 (BTC) 到年底将达到 10 万美元或更多

因此，自唐纳德·特朗普赢得大选以来，随着各种加密货币的飙升，也许预测市场可以准确回答“比特币会涨到多高？”的问题。

With various cryptocurrencies soaring since Donald Trump won the election, perhaps prediction markets can accurately answer the question, “How high will Bitcoin go?”

自唐纳德·特朗普赢得大选以来，随着各种加密货币的飙升，也许预测市场可以准确回答“比特币会涨到多高？”的问题。

On the crypto-based Polymarket, where the so-called French whale netted a massive post-election windfall, bettors have several options for Bitcoin, which is currently trading at around $91,000.

在基于加密货币的 Polymarket 上，所谓的法国鲸鱼在选举后获得了巨额横财，投注者有多种比特币选择，目前比特币的交易价格约为 91,000 美元。

For a contract on what price Bitcoin will hit in November, the odds are 72% that it will reach $95,000. The price with the next highest odds is $105,000 at 23%, followed by $110,000 at 14%.

对于 11 月比特币价格的合约，其达到 95,000 美元的可能性为 72%。第二高赔率的价格是 105,000 美元（23%），其次是 110,000 美元（14%）。

A separate contract that asks if Bitcoin will be above $90,000 on Nov. 22 shows 60% odds, while another contract asking if Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in November has only a 42% chance.

一份询问比特币在 11 月 22 日是否会达到 90,000 美元的单独合约显示了 60% 的可能性，而另一份询问比特币在 11 月是否会达到 100,000 美元的合同只有 42% 的可能性。

On the prediction market Kalshi, a contract that asks how high Bitcoin will get before 2026 shows 52% odds for $125,000 or above and 44% odds for $150,000 and above.

在预测市场 Kalshi 上，一份询问比特币在 2026 年之前会涨到多高的合约显示，比特币达到 125,000 美元或以上的可能性为 52%，达到 150,000 美元或以上的可能性为 44%。

If prediction markets aren't your thing and you prefer a forecast from a more conventional Wall Street analyst, there's Fundstrat Global Advisors cofounder Tom Lee.

如果您不喜欢预测市场，并且您更喜欢更传统的华尔街分析师的预测，那么 Fundstrat Global Advisors 联合创始人汤姆·李 (Tom Lee) 就是您的选择。

Among the forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, his stock market call in 2023 turned out to be the most accurate.

在彭博社调查的预测者中，他对 2023 年股市的预测是最准确的。

As for Bitcoin, he said in March that it could hit $150,000 by year-end. While that looks less likely now with just a month and a half left in the year, Lee told CNBC last week that “six figures” is still possible before the end of the year with more gains in 2025 in 2026.

至于比特币，他在 3 月份表示，到年底比特币价格可能会达到 15 万美元。虽然今年只剩下一个半月的时间，这种情况看起来不太可能发生，但李上周对 CNBC 表示，年底前仍有可能实现“六位数”的增长，2025 年和 2026 年的涨幅会更大。

“I think now because post-halving, Bitcoin is becoming a lot more relevant, and I think maybe the regulatory overhang is diminishing, there's a lot of upside from here,” he explained.

“我认为现在因为减半后，比特币变得更加重要，而且我认为监管悬而未决的问题可能正在减少，因此有很多上行空间，”他解释道。

Bitcoin has already soared 32% so far in November alone and has more than doubled this year. To get to $100,000, it would have to climb another 10%.

到目前为止，仅 11 月份比特币就已经飙升了 32%，今年已经上涨了一倍多。要达到 10 万美元，还必须再上涨 10%。

But there are signs that the post-election rally is stalling as the stock market notched a losing week. Still, key components of the “Trump trade” are riding high, like Tesla stock, Treasury yields, and the dollar.

但有迹象表明，随着股市连续一周下跌，大选后的涨势正在停滞。尽管如此，“特朗普交易”的关键组成部分仍在走高，比如特斯拉股票、美国国债收益率和美元。

Meanwhile, Quinn Thompson, the founder of the crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, told Fortune this past week that he's optimistic Bitcoin will attain the $100,000 milestone soon.

与此同时，加密货币对冲基金 Lekker Capital 的创始人 Quinn Thompson 上周向《财富》杂志表示，他对比特币很快将达到 10 万美元的里程碑感到乐观。

“I feel good that we hit it by year-end,” he said. “Very possible by end of month, but we'll see.”

“我很高兴我们在年底之前实现了目标，”他说。 “很有可能到月底，但我们拭目以待。”