專家預測，比特幣價格有望上漲，可能飆升至 15 萬美元

摩根溪資本管理公司執行長馬克尤斯科（Mark Yusko）根據「梅特卡夫定律」和即將到來的減半事件預測，比特幣（BTC）到年底可能會達到 15 萬美元。 Yusko 預計減半後的公允價值為 75,000 美元，根據歷史趨勢，潛在高峰為 150,000 美元。大約每四年發生一次的減半會減少新比特幣的發行量，從而造成供應衝擊，這在歷史上一直推動價格上漲。 Yusko 預計減半後需求將會增加，從而導致年底的牛市行情。

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Bullish Outlook with Potential Surge to $150,000

比特幣價格預測：前景看漲，預計將飆升至 15 萬美元

Mark Yusko, the esteemed founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, a prominent asset management firm based in the United States, recently graced the airwaves of CNBC's "Fast Money" program on March 28th. During his appearance, he expressed his optimistic outlook on the price trajectory of Bitcoin (BTC), the pioneer of crypto assets.

美國著名資產管理公司摩根溪資本管理公司 (Morgan Creek Capital Management) 的創始人兼首席執行官馬克·尤斯科 (Mark Yusko) 最近在 3 月 28 日的 CNBC“快錢”節目中亮相。他在露面時表達了對加密資產先驅比特幣（BTC）價格走勢的樂觀看法。

Yusko employed a mathematical approach, leveraging "Metcalfe's Law," to ascertain the intrinsic value of Bitcoin. By considering factors such as the number of users, miners, and network effects, he arrived at a current fair value of approximately $50,000.

尤斯科採用數學方法，利用「梅特卡夫定律」來確定比特幣的內在價值。透過考慮用戶數量、礦工數量和網路效應等因素，他得出當前的公允價值約為 5 萬美元。

Metcalfe's Law postulates that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its user base. This concept serves as a quantitative tool for evaluating network growth and provides a relatively objective basis for price forecasting.

梅特卡夫定律假設網路的價值與其用戶群的平方成正比。這個概念作為評估網路成長的定量工具，為價格預測提供了相對客觀的基礎。

Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated a pattern of price appreciation coinciding with halving events, which occur once every four years and reduce the block reward for miners by half. Yusko anticipates that this halving cycle, scheduled for around April 20th, will propel the fair value of Bitcoin to $100,000.

從歷史上看，比特幣表現出一種與減半事件同時發生的價格升值模式，減半事件每四年發生一次，並使礦工的區塊獎勵減少一半。 Yusko 預計，計劃於 4 月 20 日左右進行的減半週期將推動比特幣的公允價值達到 10 萬美元。

However, Yusko introduces a novel factor into his assessment. The emergence of "Ordinals," a Bitcoin-based version of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), has introduced transaction fees that supplement miners' income from block rewards. This, he believes, will elevate the post-halving fair value to $75,000.

然而，尤斯科在他的評估中引入了一個新穎的因素。 「Ordinals」是一種基於比特幣的不可替代代幣（NFT）版本，它的出現引入了交易費用，以補充礦工從區塊獎勵中獲得的收入。他認為，這將使減半後的公允價值提升至 7.5 萬美元。

Drawing parallels to prior Bitcoin cycles, Yusko suggests that the peak price typically approximates twice the fair value. In the previous cycle, with a fair value of $30,000, the price surged to $69,000. Applying this pattern to the current cycle, he projects a potential peak price of $150,000, double the anticipated fair value of $75,000.

尤斯科認為，與先前的比特幣週期相似，尖峰價格通常約為公允價值的兩倍。在上一個週期中，公允價值為30,000美元，價格飆升至69,000美元。將這種模式應用於當前週期，他預計潛在峰值價格為 150,000 美元，是預期公允價值 75,000 美元的兩倍。

Yusko also highlights the significance of halving events in stimulating Bitcoin's price trajectory. Halvings reduce the issuance rate of new Bitcoins, increasing their scarcity value. They have historically triggered a surge in demand that exceeds supply, resulting in price increases and market peaks in each preceding cycle.

Yusko 也強調了減半事件對刺激比特幣價格軌跡的重要性。減半降低了新比特幣的發行率，增加了其稀缺價值。從歷史上看，它們引發了需求激增，超過了供應，導致先前每個週期的價格上漲和市場高峰。

After the halving, Yusko anticipates an influx of interest in Bitcoin and increased demand from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Conversely, the supply of new Bitcoins will be halved from 900 to 450 coins per day. This imbalance between demand and supply, he argues, will drive prices higher.

尤斯科預計，比特幣減半後，人們對比特幣的興趣將會湧入，現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）的需求也會增加。相反，新比特幣的供應量將從每天 900 個減半至 450 個。他認為，這種供需失衡將推高價格。

Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited a remarkable tendency to rally "exponentially and parabolically" approximately nine months following a halving event. Yusko predicts that the current bull market is likely to culminate near the end of the year, coinciding with the holiday season.

從歷史上看，比特幣在減半事件後約九個月內表現出「指數式和拋物線式」反彈的顯著趨勢。尤斯科預測，目前的牛市可能會在年底前達到頂峰，恰逢假期。

Beyond Bitcoin, Yusko emphasizes the dominance of Bitcoin as the "king" of tokens and the superiority it enjoys in the digital asset landscape. He envisions Bitcoin, which he regards as a superior form of gold, potentially increasing tenfold over the next decade.

除了比特幣之外，Yusko 還強調了比特幣作為代幣「之王」的主導地位以及它在數位資產領域享有的優勢。他預計比特幣將在未來十年內成長十倍，他認為比特幣是黃金的一種高級形式。

Other virtual currencies that have captured Morgan Creek's attention include Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Avalanche (AVAX). Yusko notes that as the market expands, these tokens with lower market capitalizations may experience growth rates that outpace Bitcoin.

其他引起 Morgan Creek 關注的虛擬貨幣包括以太坊 (ETH)、Solana (SOL) 和 Avalanche (AVAX)。 Yusko 指出，隨著市場的擴大，這些市值較低的代幣的成長率可能會超過比特幣。

In conclusion, Yusko presents a compelling bullish case for Bitcoin, predicting a potential surge to $150,000 by the end of this year. He underscores the significance of the upcoming halving event and highlights the growing interest in Bitcoin from institutional investors. While acknowledging the potential for price fluctuations inherent in the cryptocurrency market, Yusko remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin and its potential to reshape the global financial landscape.

最後，Yusko 提出了一個令人信服的看漲比特幣的理由，預測到今年年底比特幣價格可能會飆升至 15 萬美元。他強調了即將到來的減半事件的重要性，並強調了機構投資者對比特幣日益增長的興趣。儘管承認加密貨幣市場固有的價格波動潛力，尤斯科仍然對比特幣的長期前景及其重塑全球金融格局的潛力持樂觀態度。