专家预测，比特币价格有望上涨，可能飙升至 15 万美元

摩根溪资本管理公司首席执行官马克·尤斯科（Mark Yusko）根据“梅特卡夫定律”和即将到来的减半事件预测，比特币（BTC）到年底可能会达到 15 万美元。 Yusko 预计减半后的公允价值为 75,000 美元，根据历史趋势，潜在峰值为 150,000 美元。大约每四年发生一次的减半会减少新比特币的发行量，从而造成供应冲击，这在历史上一直推动价格上涨。 Yusko 预计减半后需求将会增加，从而导致年底的牛市行情。

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Bullish Outlook with Potential Surge to $150,000

比特币价格预测：前景看涨，有望飙升至 150,000 美元

Mark Yusko, the esteemed founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, a prominent asset management firm based in the United States, recently graced the airwaves of CNBC's "Fast Money" program on March 28th. During his appearance, he expressed his optimistic outlook on the price trajectory of Bitcoin (BTC), the pioneer of crypto assets.

美国著名资产管理公司摩根溪资本管理公司 (Morgan Creek Capital Management) 的创始人兼首席执行官马克·尤斯科 (Mark Yusko) 最近在 3 月 28 日的 CNBC“快钱”节目中亮相。他在露面时表达了对加密资产先驱比特币（BTC）价格走势的乐观看法。

Yusko employed a mathematical approach, leveraging "Metcalfe's Law," to ascertain the intrinsic value of Bitcoin. By considering factors such as the number of users, miners, and network effects, he arrived at a current fair value of approximately $50,000.

尤斯科采用数学方法，利用“梅特卡夫定律”来确定比特币的内在价值。通过考虑用户数量、矿工数量和网络效应等因素，他得出当前的公允价值约为 50,000 美元。

Metcalfe's Law postulates that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its user base. This concept serves as a quantitative tool for evaluating network growth and provides a relatively objective basis for price forecasting.

梅特卡夫定律假设网络的价值与其用户群的平方成正比。这一概念作为评估网络增长的定量工具，为价格预测提供了相对客观的基础。

Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated a pattern of price appreciation coinciding with halving events, which occur once every four years and reduce the block reward for miners by half. Yusko anticipates that this halving cycle, scheduled for around April 20th, will propel the fair value of Bitcoin to $100,000.

从历史上看，比特币表现出一种与减半事件同时发生的价格升值模式，减半事件每四年发生一次，并使矿工的区块奖励减少一半。 Yusko 预计，计划于 4 月 20 日左右进行的减半周期将推动比特币的公允价值达到 10 万美元。

However, Yusko introduces a novel factor into his assessment. The emergence of "Ordinals," a Bitcoin-based version of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), has introduced transaction fees that supplement miners' income from block rewards. This, he believes, will elevate the post-halving fair value to $75,000.

然而，尤斯科在他的评估中引入了一个新颖的因素。 “Ordinals”是一种基于比特币的不可替代代币（NFT）版本，它的出现引入了交易费用，以补充矿工从区块奖励中获得的收入。他认为，这将使减半后的公允价值提升至 75,000 美元。

Drawing parallels to prior Bitcoin cycles, Yusko suggests that the peak price typically approximates twice the fair value. In the previous cycle, with a fair value of $30,000, the price surged to $69,000. Applying this pattern to the current cycle, he projects a potential peak price of $150,000, double the anticipated fair value of $75,000.

尤斯科认为，与之前的比特币周期相似，峰值价格通常约为公允价值的两倍。在上一个周期中，公允价值为30,000美元，价格飙升至69,000美元。将这种模式应用于当前周期，他预计潜在峰值价格为 150,000 美元，是预期公允价值 75,000 美元的两倍。

Yusko also highlights the significance of halving events in stimulating Bitcoin's price trajectory. Halvings reduce the issuance rate of new Bitcoins, increasing their scarcity value. They have historically triggered a surge in demand that exceeds supply, resulting in price increases and market peaks in each preceding cycle.

Yusko 还强调了减半事件对刺激比特币价格轨迹的重要性。减半降低了新比特币的发行率，增加了其稀缺价值。从历史上看，它们引发了需求激增，超过了供应，导致之前每个周期的价格上涨和市场高峰。

After the halving, Yusko anticipates an influx of interest in Bitcoin and increased demand from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Conversely, the supply of new Bitcoins will be halved from 900 to 450 coins per day. This imbalance between demand and supply, he argues, will drive prices higher.

尤斯科预计，比特币减半后，人们对比特币的兴趣将会涌入，现货交易所交易基金（ETF）的需求也会增加。相反，新比特币的供应量将从每天 900 个减半至 450 个。他认为，这种供需失衡将推高价格。

Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited a remarkable tendency to rally "exponentially and parabolically" approximately nine months following a halving event. Yusko predicts that the current bull market is likely to culminate near the end of the year, coinciding with the holiday season.

从历史上看，比特币在减半事件后约九个月内表现出“指数式和抛物线式”反弹的显着趋势。尤斯科预测，当前的牛市可能会在年底前达到顶峰，恰逢假期。

Beyond Bitcoin, Yusko emphasizes the dominance of Bitcoin as the "king" of tokens and the superiority it enjoys in the digital asset landscape. He envisions Bitcoin, which he regards as a superior form of gold, potentially increasing tenfold over the next decade.

除了比特币之外，Yusko 还强调了比特币作为代币“之王”的主导地位以及它在数字资产领域享有的优势。他预计比特币将在未来十年内增长十倍，他认为比特币是黄金的一种高级形式。

Other virtual currencies that have captured Morgan Creek's attention include Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Avalanche (AVAX). Yusko notes that as the market expands, these tokens with lower market capitalizations may experience growth rates that outpace Bitcoin.

其他引起 Morgan Creek 关注的虚拟货币包括以太坊 (ETH)、Solana (SOL) 和 Avalanche (AVAX)。 Yusko 指出，随着市场的扩大，这些市值较低的代币的增长率可能会超过比特币。

In conclusion, Yusko presents a compelling bullish case for Bitcoin, predicting a potential surge to $150,000 by the end of this year. He underscores the significance of the upcoming halving event and highlights the growing interest in Bitcoin from institutional investors. While acknowledging the potential for price fluctuations inherent in the cryptocurrency market, Yusko remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin and its potential to reshape the global financial landscape.

最后，Yusko 提出了一个令人信服的看涨比特币的理由，预测到今年年底比特币价格可能飙升至 150,000 美元。他强调了即将到来的减半事件的重要性，并强调了机构投资者对比特币日益增长的兴趣。尽管承认加密货币市场固有的价格波动潜力，尤斯科仍然对比特币的长期前景及其重塑全球金融格局的潜力持乐观态度。