比特幣價格預測暴跌：Peter Brandt 預測「指數式衰減」至 30,000 美元

資深交易員 Peter Brandt 預測比特幣 (BTC) 價格將跌至 30,000 美元左右，甚至跌至 2021 年低點。他認為，我們正處於 BTC 週期的「指數衰減」階段，之前的四個看漲週期都顯示出振幅遞減的模式。 Brandt 的分析顯示高峰已經達到，並且有可能下降至 72,723 美元。

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Peter Brandt Predicts "Exponential Decay," Sees Potential for Drop to $30,000

比特幣價格預測：Peter Brandt 預測“指數式衰退”，認為有可能跌至 30,000 美元

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has published his latest analysis on the price of Bitcoin, suggesting that the cryptocurrency has entered the "exponential decay" phase of its cycle. According to Brandt, this indicates a sharp correction is imminent, with Bitcoin potentially dropping to around $30,000 or even to the lows of 2021.

資深交易員彼得·布蘭特（Peter Brandt）發表了對比特幣價格的最新分析，表明加密貨幣已進入其週期的「指數衰減」階段。 Brandt 表示，這表明大幅調整即將到來，比特幣可能會跌至 30,000 美元左右，甚至跌至 2021 年的低點。

In a comprehensive blog post, Brandt meticulously examined Bitcoin's price history, highlighting five major bullish cycles. He observed a consistent pattern of diminishing growth in each cycle, with the amplitude of each subsequent cycle being approximately 20% of the previous one.

在一篇綜合部落格文章中，布蘭特仔細研究了比特幣的價格歷史，強調了五個主要的看漲週期。他觀察到每個週期都有一致的成長遞減模式，隨後每個週期的幅度約為前一個週期的 20%。

Brandt extrapolated this trend to the current bullish cycle, which began in November 2022. Applying the 80% rule, he estimated that the exponential advancement of this cycle should be approximately 4.5 times the 22-fold growth seen in the 2018-2021 cycle.

Brandt 將此趨勢推斷為目前始於 2022 年 11 月的牛市週期。

This would imply a minimum price of $15,473 for the current cycle. However, Brandt believes that the peak has already been reached, as Bitcoin surpassed $72,723 in mid-March 2024, which corresponds to the maximum expected for this cycle.

這意味著當前週期的最低價格為 15,473 美元。然而，布蘭特認為，高峰已經達到，比特幣在 2024 年 3 月中旬突破了 72,723 美元，這對應於本週期的預期最高值。

"It happened. It's real. You may not want to believe it, but I believe there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already reached its peak for this cycle," Brandt wrote. "If Bitcoin has reached its peak, what will be the next step? Obviously, I have no idea. But if Bitcoin has reached its peak, I would expect a drop towards the mid-30K dollars, or towards the lows of 2021."

「它發生了。這是真的。你可能不想相信，但我相信比特幣有 25% 的可能性已經達到了這個週期的峰值，」布蘭特寫道。 「如果比特幣已經達到頂峰，下一步會是什麼？顯然，我不知道。但如果比特幣已經達到頂峰，我預計比特幣會跌至 3 萬美元左右，或者跌至 2021 年的低點。”

Brandt acknowledged the bitterness of his pessimistic predictions but emphasized the significance of relying on data. He expressed his belief that Bitcoin remains one of his most important investment positions.

布蘭特承認他的悲觀預測令人痛苦，但強調了依賴數據的重要性。他表示相信比特幣仍然是他最重要的投資部位之一。

Contrasting Forecasts: Optimism vs. Pessimism

對比預測：樂觀與悲觀

Brandt's bearish forecast stands in stark contrast to the generally optimistic outlook expressed by respondents to a recent Finder survey. The survey polled 31 specialists and analysts in the crypto market to gather their price forecasts for Bitcoin.

布蘭特的悲觀預測與最近 Finder 調查受訪者普遍樂觀的前景形成鮮明對比。該調查對加密貨幣市場的 31 名專家和分析師進行了調查，收集他們對比特幣的價格預測。

The average forecast for the end of 2024 was a bullish $109,141, with some analysts predicting even higher prices, such as $150,996 by 2025 and $567,489 by 2030.

2024 年底的平均預測為樂觀的 109,141 美元，一些分析師預測價格甚至更高，例如到 2025 年為 150,996 美元，到 2030 年為 567,489 美元。

However, the survey also highlighted some bearish sentiment, with a few participants predicting a drop below $20,000 by the end of the year.

然而，調查也凸顯了一些看跌情緒，一些參與者預測到今年年底價格將跌破 2 萬美元。

The discrepancy in these forecasts underscores the inherent volatility and uncertainty associated with Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole. Brandt's analysis provides a valuable perspective on the potential downside risks, while the Finder survey reflects the optimism prevalent among some analysts.

這些預測的差異凸顯了比特幣和整個加密貨幣市場固有的波動性和不確定性。布蘭特的分析為潛在下行風險提供了寶貴的視角，而 Finder 的調查反映了一些分析師普遍的樂觀態度。

Ultimately, the future price of Bitcoin remains subject to a complex interplay of factors, including macroeconomic conditions, technological advancements, and investor sentiment. As the market continues to evolve, it is crucial for investors to carefully assess all available information and make informed decisions based on their own risk tolerance and investment goals.

最終，比特幣的未來價格仍然受到多種因素複雜的相互作用的影響，包括宏觀經濟狀況、技術進步和投資者情緒。隨著市場的不斷發展，投資者必須仔細評估所有可用資訊並根據自己的風險承受能力和投資目標做出明智的決策。