比特币价格预测暴跌：Peter Brandt 预测“指数式衰减”至 30,000 美元

资深交易员 Peter Brandt 预测比特币 (BTC) 价格将跌至 30,000 美元左右，甚至跌至 2021 年低点。他认为，我们正处于 BTC 周期的“指数衰减”阶段，之前的四个看涨周期都显示出振幅递减的模式。 Brandt 的分析表明峰值已经达到，并且有可能下降至 72,723 美元。

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Peter Brandt Predicts "Exponential Decay," Sees Potential for Drop to $30,000

比特币价格预测：Peter Brandt 预测“指数式衰退”，认为有可能跌至 30,000 美元

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has published his latest analysis on the price of Bitcoin, suggesting that the cryptocurrency has entered the "exponential decay" phase of its cycle. According to Brandt, this indicates a sharp correction is imminent, with Bitcoin potentially dropping to around $30,000 or even to the lows of 2021.

资深交易员彼得·勃兰特（Peter Brandt）发表了对比特币价格的最新分析，表明加密货币已进入其周期的“指数衰减”阶段。 Brandt 表示，这表明大幅调整即将到来，比特币可能会跌至 30,000 美元左右，甚至跌至 2021 年的低点。

In a comprehensive blog post, Brandt meticulously examined Bitcoin's price history, highlighting five major bullish cycles. He observed a consistent pattern of diminishing growth in each cycle, with the amplitude of each subsequent cycle being approximately 20% of the previous one.

在一篇综合博客文章中，布兰特仔细研究了比特币的价格历史，强调了五个主要的看涨周期。他观察到每个周期都有一致的增长递减模式，随后每个周期的幅度约为前一个周期的 20%。

Brandt extrapolated this trend to the current bullish cycle, which began in November 2022. Applying the 80% rule, he estimated that the exponential advancement of this cycle should be approximately 4.5 times the 22-fold growth seen in the 2018-2021 cycle.

Brandt 将这一趋势推断为当前始于 2022 年 11 月的牛市周期。应用 80% 规则，他估计该周期的指数级增长应约为 2018-2021 年周期中 22 倍增长的 4.5 倍。

This would imply a minimum price of $15,473 for the current cycle. However, Brandt believes that the peak has already been reached, as Bitcoin surpassed $72,723 in mid-March 2024, which corresponds to the maximum expected for this cycle.

这意味着当前周期的最低价格为 15,473 美元。然而，布兰特认为，峰值已经达到，比特币在 2024 年 3 月中旬突破了 72,723 美元，这对应于本周期的预期最高值。

"It happened. It's real. You may not want to believe it, but I believe there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already reached its peak for this cycle," Brandt wrote. "If Bitcoin has reached its peak, what will be the next step? Obviously, I have no idea. But if Bitcoin has reached its peak, I would expect a drop towards the mid-30K dollars, or towards the lows of 2021."

“它发生了。这是真的。你可能不想相信，但我相信比特币有 25% 的可能性已经达到了这个周期的峰值，”布兰特写道。 “如果比特币已经达到顶峰，下一步会是什么？显然，我不知道。但如果比特币已经达到顶峰，我预计比特币会跌至 3 万美元左右，或者跌至 2021 年的低点。”

Brandt acknowledged the bitterness of his pessimistic predictions but emphasized the significance of relying on data. He expressed his belief that Bitcoin remains one of his most important investment positions.

布兰特承认他的悲观预测令人痛苦，但强调了依赖数据的重要性。他表示相信比特币仍然是他最重要的投资头寸之一。

Contrasting Forecasts: Optimism vs. Pessimism

对比预测：乐观与悲观

Brandt's bearish forecast stands in stark contrast to the generally optimistic outlook expressed by respondents to a recent Finder survey. The survey polled 31 specialists and analysts in the crypto market to gather their price forecasts for Bitcoin.

布兰特的悲观预测与最近 Finder 调查受访者普遍乐观的前景形成鲜明对比。该调查对加密货币市场的 31 名专家和分析师进行了调查，收集他们对比特币的价格预测。

The average forecast for the end of 2024 was a bullish $109,141, with some analysts predicting even higher prices, such as $150,996 by 2025 and $567,489 by 2030.

2024 年底的平均预测为乐观的 109,141 美元，一些分析师预测价格甚至更高，例如到 2025 年为 150,996 美元，到 2030 年为 567,489 美元。

However, the survey also highlighted some bearish sentiment, with a few participants predicting a drop below $20,000 by the end of the year.

然而，调查也凸显了一些看跌情绪，一些参与者预测到今年年底价格将跌破 20,000 美元。

The discrepancy in these forecasts underscores the inherent volatility and uncertainty associated with Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole. Brandt's analysis provides a valuable perspective on the potential downside risks, while the Finder survey reflects the optimism prevalent among some analysts.

这些预测的差异凸显了比特币和整个加密货币市场固有的波动性和不确定性。布兰特的分析为潜在下行风险提供了宝贵的视角，而 Finder 的调查反映了一些分析师普遍的乐观态度。

Ultimately, the future price of Bitcoin remains subject to a complex interplay of factors, including macroeconomic conditions, technological advancements, and investor sentiment. As the market continues to evolve, it is crucial for investors to carefully assess all available information and make informed decisions based on their own risk tolerance and investment goals.

最终，比特币的未来价格仍然受到多种因素复杂的相互作用的影响，包括宏观经济状况、技术进步和投资者情绪。随着市场的不断发展，投资者必须仔细评估所有可用信息并根据自己的风险承受能力和投资目标做出明智的决策。