比特幣在聯準會投機和經濟不確定性的壓力下承受壓力

比特幣價格面臨下行壓力，逼近6萬美元。焦點轉向美聯儲聯邦公開市場委員會會議和傑羅姆·鮑威爾的評論。這次會議可能會影響比特幣的價格，因為聯準會的利率決定和鮑威爾的語氣將為貨幣政策方向提供見解。市場預期利率將持續穩定，但由於 GDP 成長放緩和通膨上升，預期降息或升息可能會延遲，可能會對加密貨幣情緒產生負面影響。

Bitcoin Faces Pressure Amidst Fed Speculations and Economic Uncertainties

比特幣在聯準會投機和經濟不確定性中面臨壓力

Bitcoin's upward momentum has faltered, with its price gravitating towards the $60,000 mark. The crypto market's attention this week revolves around the pivotal Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, particularly the anticipated comments from Chairman Jerome Powell.

Bearish Sentiment Intensifies

看跌情緒加劇

Hopes of a swift surge to $100,000 have waned, and price action has turned sluggish, prompting sellers to gain traction. Bitcoin bears have set their sights on the $60,000 level, as evidenced by the steady sell-off over the past several trading sessions.

價格迅速飆升至 10 萬美元的希望已經減弱，價格走勢也變得遲緩，促使賣家獲得吸引力。比特幣空頭將目標定在 6 萬美元水平，過去幾個交易日的穩定拋售就證明了這一點。

Fed's Impact on Bitcoin Price

聯準會對比特幣價格的影響

This week's events could prove pivotal. Last week's bullish Tesla earnings call triggered a shift towards risk-on sentiment, including increased demand for Bitcoin. However, the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Powell's subsequent press conference are the primary focus for market participants.

本週的事件可能至關重要。上週看漲的特斯拉財報電話會議引發了風險偏好情緒的轉變，包括對比特幣的需求增加。不過，即將召開的聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議以及鮑威爾隨後的新聞發布會是市場參與者的主要關注點。

In early 2020, the Fed's shift to a fiscally accommodative monetary policy played a significant role in fueling the market rally, with Bitcoin reaching a peak of $70,000 by November 2021.

2020 年初，聯準會轉向財政寬鬆的貨幣政策，在推動市場反彈方面發揮了重要作用，比特幣到 2021 年 11 月達到了 7 萬美元的峰值。

However, the market is currently jittery amidst persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Investors are eagerly awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision on May 1, concerned about the potential impact on Bitcoin and the broader crypto landscape.

然而，目前市場因持續的通膨壓力和中東地緣政治緊張局勢而緊張不安。投資者熱切等待 5 月 1 日聯準會的利率決定，擔心這對比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣格局的潛在影響。

Fed's Interest Rate Decision and Market Impact

聯準會利率決策及市場影響

Analysts expect the Fed to maintain steady interest rates during the FOMC meeting. Nevertheless, volatility is anticipated approximately 45 minutes after the announcement, particularly during Powell's press conference. His tone and insights into the central bank's monetary policy direction are crucial for market sentiment.

分析師預計聯準會將在FOMC會議期間維持利率穩定。儘管如此，預計在公告發布後約 45 分鐘後將出現波動，尤其是在鮑威爾的新聞發布會期間。他的語氣和對央行貨幣政策方向的見解對於市場情緒至關重要。

Recent economic data has cast a shadow over the market's optimism. Real GDP growth slowed to +1.6% in Q1 2024, significantly lower than the +3.4% recorded in Q1 2023. This unexpected deceleration, coupled with rising inflation, has raised concerns about a potential delay in the Fed's anticipated rate cuts, weighing down on crypto sentiment.

近期的經濟數據給市場的樂觀情緒蒙上了陰影。 2024 年第一季實際GDP 成長放緩至+1.6%，顯著低於2023 年第一季的+3.4%。擔憂，因而打壓了加密情緒。

Inflation data for March indicated a 2.7% increase in price pressures in the United States, pushing the annualized headline inflation to 3.4%. This exceeds the Fed's ideal level of 2%.

3 月通膨數據顯示，美國物價壓力增加 2.7%，年化整體通膨率升至 3.4%。這超出了聯準會2%的理想水準。

Meanwhile, the labor market remains robust, with more job openings than available workers. Some analysts suggest that the combination of weak GDP growth and rising inflation could prompt Powell to maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated or even consider raising them to curb inflation.

同時，勞動市場依然強勁，職缺多於可用工人。一些分析師認為，GDP成長疲軟和通膨上升可能促使鮑威爾維持較高利率的時間比預期更長，甚至考慮提高利率以抑制通膨。

Spot BTC ETF Outflows Signal Unease

現貨 BTC ETF 資金外流訊號令人不安

Should the Fed decide to raise rates, as it did in 2022, Bitcoin prices are likely to face further downward pressure, even after the upcoming Halving event. This situation is compounded by the recent surge in spot Bitcoin outflows from ETFs, indicating investor unease.

如果聯準會決定像 2022 年那樣升息，即使在即將到來的減半事件之後，比特幣價格也可能面臨進一步的下行壓力。最近 ETF 現貨比特幣資金流出激增，加劇了這種情況，顯示投資者感到不安。

Data from Lookonchain on April 26th revealed that GBTC and nine other spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock and Fidelity, experienced a combined outflow of more than 5,000 BTC, worth approximately $320 million.

Lookonchain 4 月 26 日數據顯示，GBTC 以及貝萊德、富達等 9 隻現貨比特幣 ETF 合計流出超過 5,000 枚 BTC，價值約 3.2 億美元。

If these outflows persist, Bitcoin's price could potentially collapse below the $60,000 threshold, creating market panic and triggering an altcoin sell-off, potentially creating lucrative opportunities for savvy traders.

如果這些資金外流持續存在，比特幣的價格可能會跌破 6 萬美元的門檻，造成市場恐慌並引發山寨幣拋售，從而可能為精明的交易者創造利潤豐厚的機會。