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在最近的減半事件之後,比特幣挖礦的獲利能力大幅下降,來自區塊獎勵的收入下降了一半。儘管減半後交易費用暫時上漲,但由於補貼減少,礦商現在面臨利潤壓縮的問題。對上市礦業公司營運成本和利潤率的分析表明,那些營運高效、電力成本較低的公司,如 CleanSpark、Riot 和 Core Scientific,毛利率最高。然而,包括 Hive 和 Hut8 在內的一些礦商的營運接近無利可圖,利潤率等於或低於 10%。 Riot、Cleanspark 和 Marathon 等計劃對設施和車隊進行擴張和升級的礦商可能會經受住當前的挑戰,而那些債務高或擴張計劃有限的礦商可能會面臨更大的財務壓力。
Bitcoin Mining Enters a Challenging Phase: Margins Shrink as Halving Impacts Profits
比特幣挖礦進入挑戰階段:利潤減半影響利潤
Amidst the ongoing cryptocurrency market volatility, the recent halving event in the Bitcoin network has sent shockwaves through the mining industry. The quadrennial event, which reduces the number of bitcoins generated per block, has significantly reduced the economic incentives for miners.
在加密貨幣市場持續波動的背景下,最近比特幣網路的減半事件給挖礦業帶來了衝擊。四年一度的活動減少了每個區塊產生的比特幣數量,大大降低了礦工的經濟誘因。
Post-Halving Revenue Surge Stalls
減半後收入激增停滯
In the immediate aftermath of the halving, miners experienced a brief surge in revenue from transaction fees. The introduction of a new token standard on Bitcoin, known as Runes, resulted in a record-breaking $78.3 million in transaction fees on April 20, 2024. However, this boost proved short-lived as Runes activity and transaction fees have since dwindled.
減半後,礦工們的交易費收入出現了短暫的激增。比特幣引入了新的代幣標準(稱為Runes),導致2024 年4 月20 日交易費用達到破紀錄的7830 萬美元。此後不斷減少。
Hashprice Plunges, Miners Face Squeeze
算力暴跌,礦工面臨擠壓
Hashprice, a measure of the earning potential for mining operations, has seen a sharp decline since the halving. On April 29, 2024, hashprice hit an all-time low of $49/PH/Day, severely squeezing miners' profit margins. This metric reflects the revenue that miners can generate daily based on their compute power.
哈希價格是衡量挖礦業務獲利潛力的指標,自減半以來已大幅下跌。 2024 年 4 月 29 日,哈希價格觸及 49 美元/PH/天的歷史低點,嚴重擠壓了礦工的利潤率。該指標反映了礦工根據其計算能力每天可以產生的收入。
Profitability Varies Significantly
獲利能力差異很大
The economic realities of the post-halving era are evident in the operating costs of publicly traded mining companies. By subtracting hashcost, or direct operating costs, from hashprice, we can derive implied daily profits and costs.
減半後時代的經濟現實在上市礦業公司的營運成本中顯而易見。透過從哈希價格中減去哈希成本或直接營運成本,我們可以得出隱含的每日利潤和成本。
CleanSpark, Riot, and Core Scientific have emerged as the most profitable miners, boasting efficient mining fleets and lower power costs. Hive and Hut 8, on the other hand, teeter on the brink of unprofitability, with margins below 10%.
CleanSpark、Riot 和 Core Scientific 成為最賺錢的礦商,擁有高效率的礦機和較低的電力成本。另一方面,Hive 和 Hut 8 則徘徊在無利可圖的邊緣,利潤率低於 10%。
Marginal Impact on Market Performance
對市場表現的邊際影響
While the halving has impacted mining profitability, its effect on publicly traded mining stocks has been mixed. Despite reduced margins, Cleanspark remains the only miner with positive returns in 2024, largely due to its strong operational performance.
雖然減半影響了礦業獲利能力,但對公開交易的礦業股的影響卻好壞參半。儘管利潤率下降,Cleanspark 仍然是 2024 年唯一實現正回報的礦商,這主要歸功於其強勁的營運表現。
Conversely, Core Scientific's seemingly high margins are deceptive. The company emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in December 2022 with a hefty $864 million debt burden, limiting its investment capacity.
相反,Core Scientific看似高的利潤率是具有欺騙性的。該公司於 2022 年 12 月擺脫美國破產法第 11 章破產保護,背負著 8.64 億美元的巨額債務負擔,限制了其投資能力。
Thin Margins Raise Concerns
利潤微薄引發擔憂
Several mining companies, including Hut 8 and Marathon, are facing significant challenges. Hut 8's high power costs and inefficient fleet have eroded its profitability. Marathon, despite its large market capitalization, has the second-lowest profit margin among the public miners.
Hut 8 和 Marathon 等多家礦業公司正面臨重大挑戰。 Hut 8 的高電力成本和低效率的機隊削弱了其獲利能力。儘管Marathon的市值很大,但其利潤率在公共礦商中排名第二低。
Expansion Plans Crucial for Survival
擴張計畫對生存至關重要
To weather the current market conditions, mining companies are pursuing various expansion strategies. Riot and Bitfarms have significant ASIC purchase orders outstanding, which will improve their fleet efficiency and reduce operating costs.
為了應對當前的市場狀況,礦業公司正在採取各種擴張策略。 Riot 和 Bitfarms 擁有大量未完成的 ASIC 採購訂單,這將提高其車隊效率並降低營運成本。
Cleanspark, Marathon, and Core Scientific are focusing on acquiring or building their own mining sites to gain greater control over power costs and vertical integration. Other miners, such as Bitfarms, Terawulf, and Iris, are expanding existing facilities to increase capacity.
Cleanspark、Marathon 和 Core Scientific 正專注於收購或建造自己的礦場,以更好地控制電力成本和垂直整合。 Bitfarms、Terawulf 和 Iris 等其他礦商正在擴大現有設施以提高產能。
Efficiency and Cost-Cutting Key
效率和削減成本的關鍵
The post-halving era is forcing miners to prioritize efficiency and cost-cutting. Miners with hedging and trading strategies for power, behind-the-meter rates, and energy-efficient ASICs are likely to outperform in the coming years.
減半後時代迫使礦商優先考慮效率和成本削減。擁有電力、用戶電錶費率和節能 ASIC 等對沖和交易策略的礦商在未來幾年可能會表現出色。
One undervalued miner to watch is Bitfarms, which has low power costs and plans to improve its energy efficiency through strategic expansions. If successful, the company could join the ranks of Riot, Marathon, and Cleanspark in terms of hashrate size and market valuation.
Bitfarms 是值得關注的一家被低估的礦商,該公司的電力成本較低,並計劃透過策略擴張來提高能源效率。如果成功,該公司在算力規模和市場估值方面可能會加入 Riot、Marathon 和 Cleanspark 的行列。
Conclusion
結論
The Bitcoin mining industry is facing a challenging period as the post-halving environment compresses margins. Efficient miners with proven expansion strategies are best positioned to navigate this downturn. Those prioritizing cost-cutting and adopting innovative power management techniques will emerge as the leaders of the next Bitcoin mining epoch.
由於減半後的環境壓縮了利潤率,比特幣挖礦產業正面臨一個充滿挑戰的時期。擁有經過驗證的擴張策略的高效礦商最有能力渡過這次低迷時期。那些優先考慮削減成本和採用創新電源管理技術的人將成為下一個比特幣挖礦時代的領導者。
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