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隨著夏季臨近,CryptoQuant 警告稱,如果在此期間價格未能大幅反彈,比特幣礦商可能會遇到重大挑戰。儘管比特幣目前的價格跌破 58,000 美元,但礦工尚未出現大規模投降。 CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 強調,網路算力仍然較高,這表明擁有高效設備的礦工仍然可以產生利潤。然而,使用舊 ASIC 的零售礦工可能會因電力成本增加而遭受損失,並且根據未來的算力和價格趨勢,可能會導致投降。
Bitcoin Miners Face Looming Challenges as Summer Temperatures Rise
隨著夏季氣溫上升,比特幣礦工面臨迫在眉睫的挑戰
Amidst the impending arrival of summer, CryptoQuant has issued a stern warning to Bitcoin miners, cautioning them about the potential for significant challenges ahead. The primary concern stems from the possibility that Bitcoin prices may not experience substantial recovery during the warmer months.
在夏季即將到來之際,CryptoQuant 向比特幣礦工發出了嚴厲警告,警告他們未來可能面臨的重大挑戰。主要擔憂源於比特幣價格在溫暖的月份可能不會大幅復甦的可能性。
Despite Bitcoin's recent price dip below the $58,000 mark, which has prompted weaker investors to liquidate their holdings, large-scale capitulation among Bitcoin miners has yet to materialize. CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, has indicated in an exclusive interview with crypto.news that the network hashrate remains marginally higher than its pre-halving levels. Moreno attributes this to the fact that miners can still extract profits with "relatively efficient equipment."
儘管比特幣價格最近跌破 58,000 美元大關,促使實力較弱的投資者清算其持有的資產,但比特幣礦商的大規模投降尚未實現。 CryptoQuant 的研究主管 Julio Moreno 在接受 crypto.news 獨家採訪時表示,網路算力仍略高於減半前的水平。莫雷諾將此歸因於礦工仍可透過「相對高效的設備」獲取利潤。
The profitability of Bitcoin mining remains evident from the break-even electricity price for ASIC models S19 and S21, which continue to exceed the electricity costs of large industrial miners (as illustrated by the green area in the accompanying chart).
從 ASIC 型號 S19 和 S21 的盈虧平衡電價來看,比特幣挖礦的獲利能力仍然很明顯,這些電價持續超過大型工業礦機的電力成本(如附圖中的綠色區域所示)。
However, Moreno has also highlighted concerns regarding the potential for some retail miners to encounter negative profits, especially those utilizing older ASIC models such as the S17 and S19. This situation arises due to the higher electricity costs associated with these older models. Moreno further emphasizes that a capitulation event for miners will be contingent on the combined evolution of network hashrate and Bitcoin prices in the coming weeks.
然而,莫雷諾也強調了對一些零售礦商可能出現負利潤的擔憂,特別是那些使用 S17 和 S19 等舊 ASIC 型號的礦商。造成這種情況的原因是這些舊型號的電費較高。莫雷諾進一步強調,礦工的投降事件將取決於未來幾週網路算力和比特幣價格的全面演變。
Addressing apprehensions about potential price volatility during the customary summer trading slowdown, Moreno has stressed that miners tend to react to price movements rather than instigate them. Nevertheless, he has not dismissed the possibility of Bitcoin experiencing increased selling pressure in the upcoming months.
在解決夏季交易放緩期間潛在價格波動的擔憂時,莫雷諾強調,礦商傾向於對價格變動做出反應,而不是煽動價格變動。儘管如此,他並沒有否認比特幣在未來幾個月面臨更大拋售壓力的可能性。
"The market is more likely to witness miner capitulation if prices fail to rebound significantly during the summer. This is especially pertinent considering the hashprice (average miner revenue per hash) is reaching new lows," Moreno said.
「如果價格在夏季未能大幅反彈,市場更有可能見證礦工投降。考慮到哈希價格(每個哈希的平均礦工收入)正在創下新低,這一點尤其重要,」莫雷諾說。
As reported previously by crypto.news, Bitcoin miners have refrained from selling their cryptocurrency holdings despite a drop in their revenue to levels last seen in early 2023 following the most recent halving event, which reduced fixed block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, miners currently face a dual choice: capitulate or anticipate a resurgence in Bitcoin's price, which currently hovers below the $58,000 threshold.
正如crypto.news 之前所報導的那樣,儘管在最近的減半事件之後,比特幣礦工的收入下降至2023 年初的水平,固定區塊獎勵從6.25 BTC 減少到3.125 BTC,但比特幣礦工並未出售其持有的加密貨幣。 CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 表示,礦商目前面臨雙重選擇:要麼屈服,要麼預期比特幣價格回升,目前比特幣價格徘徊在 58,000 美元的門檻以下。
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