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随着夏季临近,CryptoQuant 警告称,如果在此期间价格未能大幅反弹,比特币矿商可能会遇到重大挑战。尽管比特币目前的价格跌破 58,000 美元,但矿工尚未出现大规模投降。 CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 强调,网络算力仍然较高,这表明拥有高效设备的矿工仍然可以产生利润。然而,使用旧 ASIC 的零售矿工可能会因电力成本增加而遭受损失,并且根据未来的算力和价格趋势,可能会导致投降。
Bitcoin Miners Face Looming Challenges as Summer Temperatures Rise
随着夏季气温上升,比特币矿工面临迫在眉睫的挑战
Amidst the impending arrival of summer, CryptoQuant has issued a stern warning to Bitcoin miners, cautioning them about the potential for significant challenges ahead. The primary concern stems from the possibility that Bitcoin prices may not experience substantial recovery during the warmer months.
在夏季即将到来之际,CryptoQuant 向比特币矿工发出了严厉警告,警告他们未来可能面临的重大挑战。主要担忧源于比特币价格在温暖的月份可能不会大幅复苏的可能性。
Despite Bitcoin's recent price dip below the $58,000 mark, which has prompted weaker investors to liquidate their holdings, large-scale capitulation among Bitcoin miners has yet to materialize. CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, has indicated in an exclusive interview with crypto.news that the network hashrate remains marginally higher than its pre-halving levels. Moreno attributes this to the fact that miners can still extract profits with "relatively efficient equipment."
尽管比特币价格最近跌破 58,000 美元大关,促使实力较弱的投资者清算其持有的资产,但比特币矿商的大规模投降尚未实现。 CryptoQuant 的研究主管 Julio Moreno 在接受 crypto.news 独家采访时表示,网络算力仍略高于减半前的水平。莫雷诺将此归因于矿工仍然可以通过“相对高效的设备”获取利润。
The profitability of Bitcoin mining remains evident from the break-even electricity price for ASIC models S19 and S21, which continue to exceed the electricity costs of large industrial miners (as illustrated by the green area in the accompanying chart).
从 ASIC 型号 S19 和 S21 的盈亏平衡电价来看,比特币挖矿的盈利能力仍然很明显,这些电价继续超过大型工业矿机的电力成本(如附图中的绿色区域所示)。
However, Moreno has also highlighted concerns regarding the potential for some retail miners to encounter negative profits, especially those utilizing older ASIC models such as the S17 and S19. This situation arises due to the higher electricity costs associated with these older models. Moreno further emphasizes that a capitulation event for miners will be contingent on the combined evolution of network hashrate and Bitcoin prices in the coming weeks.
然而,莫雷诺也强调了对一些零售矿商可能出现负利润的担忧,特别是那些使用 S17 和 S19 等旧 ASIC 型号的矿商。出现这种情况的原因是这些旧型号的电费较高。莫雷诺进一步强调,矿工的投降事件将取决于未来几周网络算力和比特币价格的综合演变。
Addressing apprehensions about potential price volatility during the customary summer trading slowdown, Moreno has stressed that miners tend to react to price movements rather than instigate them. Nevertheless, he has not dismissed the possibility of Bitcoin experiencing increased selling pressure in the upcoming months.
在解决夏季交易放缓期间潜在价格波动的担忧时,莫雷诺强调,矿商倾向于对价格变动做出反应,而不是煽动价格变动。尽管如此,他并没有否认比特币在未来几个月面临更大抛售压力的可能性。
"The market is more likely to witness miner capitulation if prices fail to rebound significantly during the summer. This is especially pertinent considering the hashprice (average miner revenue per hash) is reaching new lows," Moreno said.
“如果价格在夏季未能大幅反弹,市场更有可能见证矿工投降。考虑到哈希价格(每个哈希的平均矿工收入)正在创下新低,这一点尤其重要,”莫雷诺说。
As reported previously by crypto.news, Bitcoin miners have refrained from selling their cryptocurrency holdings despite a drop in their revenue to levels last seen in early 2023 following the most recent halving event, which reduced fixed block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, miners currently face a dual choice: capitulate or anticipate a resurgence in Bitcoin's price, which currently hovers below the $58,000 threshold.
正如 crypto.news 之前报道的那样,尽管在最近的减半事件之后,比特币矿工的收入下降至 2023 年初的水平,固定区块奖励从 6.25 BTC 减少到 3.125 BTC,但比特币矿工并未出售其持有的加密货币。 CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 表示,矿商目前面临双重选择:要么屈服,要么预期比特币价格回升,目前比特币价格徘徊在 58,000 美元的门槛以下。
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