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在比特幣網路上驗證交易的獎勵減少一半後六個月,加密貨幣挖礦公司正在兩條不同的路徑之間進行選擇以保持生存。
Crypto mining companies are pivoting toward two distinct strategies to remain viable following a halving of rewards for validating transactions on the Bitcoin network.
在比特幣網路上驗證交易的獎勵減半後,加密貨幣挖礦公司正在轉向兩種不同的策略,以保持可行。
Some publicly traded miners, including MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA), Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT), and CleanSpark (NASDAQ:CLSK), are choosing to hold the Bitcoin they produce, anticipating an increase in the digital asset’s value.
一些上市礦商,包括MARA Holdings(納斯達克股票代碼:MARA)、Riot Platforms(納斯達克股票代碼:RIOT)和CleanSpark(納斯達克股票代碼:CLSK),選擇持有他們生產的比特幣,預計數位資產的價值會增加。
Meanwhile, an increasing number of companies are ramping up spending on developing data centers to power artificial intelligence applications.
同時,越來越多的公司正在加大開發資料中心的支出,以支援人工智慧應用程式。
This industry bifurcation has intensified since the April software update in the Bitcoin blockchain. The preprogrammed event, known as the halving, reduces the Bitcoin reward, which serves as the primary revenue source for miners, by 50% every four years. This measure aims to maintain the hard cap of 21 million Bitcoin and prevent the cryptocurrency from becoming inflationary.
自從四月比特幣區塊鏈軟體更新以來,這種行業分歧加劇。這個被稱為減半的預編程事件每四年將作為礦工主要收入來源的比特幣獎勵減少 50%。該措施旨在維持 2,100 萬比特幣的硬上限,並防止加密貨幣出現通貨膨脹。
“With the halving putting a squeeze on profit margins, one of the few strategies available to retain investors is for miners to hold onto the Bitcoin they’ve mined, betting on future price appreciation while they tap into equity or debt financing,” said Wolfie Zhao, an analyst at research firm TheMinerMag. “By avoiding the immediate sale of Bitcoin at a loss, they can keep potential losses unrealized and position themselves for gains if a bull market materializes.”
Wolfie 表示:「隨著減半對利潤率造成擠壓,礦商留住投資者的少數策略之一就是持有他們開採的比特幣,押注未來價格升值,同時進行股權或債務融資。」趙是研究公司TheMinerMag 的分析師。 “通過避免立即虧本出售比特幣,他們可以避免潛在的損失,並在牛市實現時為自己獲利。”
As Bitcoin has rallied by over 60% this year while shares of most companies have underperformed, traders seem to be deciding which strategy will succeed, with those embracing AI posting the largest gains.
由於比特幣今年上漲了 60% 以上,而大多數公司的股價表現不佳,交易者似乎正在決定哪種策略會成功,而那些擁抱人工智慧的公司漲幅最大。
Among the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miners, those that are “hodling” — industry slang for holding the cryptocurrency for the long term — include MARA and Riot. Their shares have declined by 20% and 36%, respectively, in 2023.
在最大的公開交易的比特幣礦商中,那些「長期持有」加密貨幣的礦商包括 MARA 和 Riot。到 2023 年,他們的股價分別下降了 20% 和 36%。
On the other hand, Core Scientific (NASDAQ:CORZ), which emerged from bankruptcy in January, has seen its stock rise almost fourfold since announcing multibillion dollar contracts with AI upstart CoreWeave. The miner will convert some of its data centers to host graphics processing units that can generate high-performance computing power for AI applications. TeraWulf (NYSE:WULF), whose stock has more than doubled this year, is also developing AI data center space, although it is a fairly small-cap stock.
另一方面,Core Scientific(納斯達克股票代碼:CORZ)於 1 月擺脫破產困境,自宣布與人工智慧新貴 CoreWeave 簽訂數十億美元的合約以來,其股價已上漲近四倍。該礦商將把部分資料中心轉變為託管圖形處理單元,為人工智慧應用程式產生高效能運算能力。 TeraWulf(NYSE:WULF)的股價今年上漲了一倍多,儘管它是一隻相當小的股票,但它也在開發人工智慧資料中心領域。
Shares of other Bitcoin miners that are dedicating more resources to AI, such as Iris Energy (NASDAQ:IREN) and Bit Digital (NYSE:BTBT), tend to trade at higher levels than some of their peers that are doubling down on holding the Bitcoin they mine.
其他投入更多資源的比特幣礦商,例如Iris Energy(納斯達克股票代碼:IREN)和Bit Digital(NYSE:BTBT),股價往往比一些加倍持有比特幣的同行更高。
It remains to be seen which strategy will ultimately be more successful. While AI is currently very popular, there have been signs of cooling interest in the sector. There are also questions about whether some of the Bitcoin miners have the necessary resources and commitment to join the capital-intensive AI race.
哪種策略最終會更成功還有待觀察。雖然人工智慧目前非常受歡迎,但有跡象表明對該行業的興趣正在降溫。還有一些問題是,一些比特幣礦工是否擁有必要的資源和承諾來加入資本密集的人工智慧競賽。
In the meantime, the Bitcoin-holding miners have become better at timing the cycles of the crypto market following the industry meltdown of the past few years. For some companies, especially large-scale operators like MARA and CleanSpark, Bitcoin mining is still profitable at the gross margin level.
同時,在過去幾年的產業崩盤之後,持有比特幣的礦商在掌握加密市場週期方面變得更加出色。對於一些公司,尤其是像MARA和CleanSpark這樣的大型業者來說,比特幣挖礦在毛利率水準上仍然是有利可圖的。
“Our view is that pure-play Bitcoin mining has a place in the market currently with the respect to generating economic value from growing capacity to mine Bitcoin,” said Paul Golding, a senior analyst at Macquarie Capital USA. He has “outperform” ratings on MARA, Riot, Core Scientific, Iris Energy, CleanSpark, and Cipher Mining (NYSE:CIFR).
麥格理資本美國公司的高級分析師 Paul Golding 表示:“我們認為,純粹的比特幣挖礦目前在市場上佔有一席之地,因為通過不斷增長的比特幣挖礦能力來創造經濟價值。”他對 MARA、Riot、Core Scientific、Iris Energy、CleanSpark 和 Cipher Mining(NYSE:CIFR)給予「跑贏大盤」評級。
According to Golding, advances in hardware efficiency and potential appreciation in Bitcoin are among the factors that can keep miners viable from a gross margin perspective even after the halving.
戈爾丁表示,硬體效率的進步和比特幣的潛在升值是即使在減半後從毛利率角度來看也能讓礦商維持生存的因素之一。
As Bitcoin has risen again following the 2022 market crash, miners have started borrowing and issuing more shares once more. This time around, companies like MARA are even using the proceeds to buy crypto, following the buy-and-hold strategy that helped MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) transform from an obscure enterprise software maker into the world's leading Bitcoin proxy.
隨著 2022 年市場崩盤後比特幣再次上漲,礦商再次開始借貸並發行更多股票。這次,像MARA 這樣的公司甚至使用所得收益來購買加密貨幣,遵循了幫助MicroStrategy(納斯達克股票代碼:MSTR)從一家默默無聞的企業軟體製造商轉型為全球領先的比特幣代理的買入並持有策略。
“In a rising Bitcoin price environment, it is going to be an extremely successful strategy, but it’ll be a disaster if Bitcoin prices plummet,” said Ethan Vera, chief operating officer at Luxor Technology. “You will continue to see negative profits and they are hiding how bad the industry is right now and how bad their operations are by diluting shareholders and buying newer machines.”
Luxor Technology 首席營運長 Ethan Vera 表示:“在比特幣價格上漲的環境中,這將是一個極其成功的策略,但如果比特幣價格暴跌,那將是一場災難。” “你將繼續看到負利潤,他們通過稀釋股東和購買新機器來掩蓋行業目前的狀況以及他們的運營狀況。”
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