比特幣市場調整：專家預測在看漲前景中穩步復甦

BitMEX 前執行長 Arthur Hayes 認為，比特幣 (BTC) 已經暫時觸底，並將在未來幾個月逐漸上漲。海耶斯在部落格文章中分析了近期的市場下跌情況，並預測比特幣將反彈至6 萬美元以上，並在6 萬至7 萬美元之間徘徊直至8 月，然後在美聯儲量化緊縮和美國國債流動在性增加的推動下，開始逐步上漲的趨勢發行。

Bitcoin Market Correction: Experts Predict Gradual Recovery Amid Bullish Sentiment

比特幣市場調整：專家預測在看漲情緒中逐步復甦

May 3, 2022

2022 年 5 月 3 日

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has asserted that Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a local bottom and anticipates a gradual upward trajectory over the coming months. In a blog post published on May 3, Hayes stated, "The price action played out as I expected."

BitMEX 前執行長 Arthur Hayes 斷言，比特幣 (BTC) 已觸底，並預計未來幾個月將逐步上漲。海耶斯在 5 月 3 日發表的部落格文章中表示，“價格走勢正如我預期的那樣。”

Bitcoin experienced a recent low of approximately $58,600 earlier this week but is projected to rebound above $60,000 and maintain a rangebound movement between $60,000 and $70,000 until August, Hayes noted.

Hayes 指出，本週早些時候，比特幣跌至約 58,600 美元的近期低點，但預計將反彈至 60,000 美元以上，並在 8 月之前維持在 60,000 美元至 70,000 美元之間的區間波動。

"The 12% Bitcoin retreat this week was a well-needed market cleansing," Hayes stated. He attributed the decline to factors including the tax season in the United States, concerns over Federal Reserve decisions, the "sell the news event" following the Bitcoin halving, and a slowdown in spot Bitcoin ETF asset under management growth.

Hayes 表示：“本週比特幣下跌 12%，這是一次急需的市場清理。”他將下跌歸因於包括美國納稅季、對聯準會決策的擔憂、比特幣減半後的「拋售新聞事件」以及管理下的現貨比特幣 ETF 資產成長放緩等因素。

The 23% correction marked the fourth significant retracement of similar magnitude in the past 12 months.

這次 23% 的調整標誌著過去 12 個月內第四次類似幅度的大幅回撤。

Hayes expressed optimism that crypto markets will experience a gradual upward trajectory following the recent sell-off. This optimism stems from increased dollar liquidity resulting from the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) tapering and the U.S. Treasury's debt issuance plans.

海耶斯樂觀地認為，在最近的拋售之後，加密貨幣市場將經歷逐步上升的軌跡。這種樂觀情緒源自於聯準會量化緊縮（QT）縮減和美國財政部發債計畫帶來的美元流動性增加。

By tapering QT, the central bank is essentially injecting more liquidity into markets, potentially leading to an influx of funds into riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. Hayes views this liquidity injection as "stealth money printing," a positive factor for high-risk assets.

透過縮減 QT，央行實質上是向市場注入更多流動性，可能導致資金湧入加密貨幣等風險較高的資產。海耶斯將這種流動性注入視為“隱形印鈔”，對高風險資產來說是一個積極因素。

"Are the recent Fed and Treasury policy announcements stealth forms of money printing? Yes," Hayes stated. "The slow addition of billions of dollars of liquidity each month will dampen negative price movement from here on out," he added, predicting that prices will "bottom, chop, and begin a slow grind higher."

海耶斯表示：“美聯儲和財政部最近宣布的政策是否屬於秘密印鈔形式？是的。”他補充說：「每月數十億美元的流動性緩慢增加將抑制從現在開始的負面價格走勢。」他預測價格將「觸底、下跌，然後開始緩慢走高」。

Hayes is not alone in anticipating a sideways market for the next few months. Dr. Jeff Ross, Founder and CEO of Vailshire Capital Management, expressed a similar sentiment in a post on X on May 2. Despite market uncertainty, Ross stated, "I'm still respecting the ongoing bullcrab market."

海耶斯並不是唯一一個預計未來幾個月市場將橫盤整理的人。 Vailshire Capital Management 創始人兼首席執行官傑夫·羅斯(Jeff Ross) 博士在5 月2 日的X 帖子中表達了類似的觀點。蟹市場。

Ross interpreted the Fed's "rhetoric pivot" as an official shift from "bad-to-less-bad liquidity conditions." He believes that analysts and traders who have predicted the end of the Bitcoin bull market "may be dismayed to learn that the actual bull market hasn't even started yet." Ross concluded that the coming weeks will present an opportunity for accumulation.

羅斯將聯準會的「言論轉向」解讀為官方從「流動性狀況從糟糕轉向不太糟糕」的轉變。他認為，預測比特幣牛市結束的分析師和交易員「可能會沮喪地發現，實際的牛市尚未開始」。羅斯總結道，未來幾週將提供累積的機會。

Institutional crypto brokerage MatrixPort shared a similar outlook in a note to Cointelegraph, stating that historically, "Bitcoin tends to move sideways afterward for four to five months" following a halving.

機構加密經紀公司 MatrixPort 在給 Cointelegraph 的報告中分享了類似的前景，指出從歷史上看，「比特幣在減半後往往會在四到五個月內橫向波動」。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin prices had rebounded by 4.2% to trade at $59,804. However, the asset remained 19% below its mid-March all-time high, according to CoinGecko.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣價格已反彈 4.2%，至 59,804 美元。然而，根據 CoinGecko 的數據，該資產仍比 3 月中旬的歷史高點低 19%。

Conclusion:

結論：

Industry experts, including former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes and others, anticipate a gradual recovery in the Bitcoin market following the recent correction. The increased liquidity resulting from the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening tapering and the U.S. Treasury's debt issuance plans is seen as a positive factor supporting a sustained upward trajectory. While the market may experience some volatility in the short term, long-term bullish sentiment remains intact, suggesting that the current correction presents an opportunity for accumulation.

包括 BitMEX 前執行長 Arthur Hayes 等在內的行業專家預計，比特幣市場在最近的調整後將逐步復甦。聯準會量化緊縮和美國財政部發債計畫帶來的流動性增加被視為支持持續上行軌跡的正面因素。儘管市場短期內可能會出現一些波動，但長期看漲情緒依然完好，顯示當前的調整提供了吸籌的機會。