比特币市场调整：专家预测在看涨前景中稳步复苏

BitMEX 前首席执行官 Arthur Hayes 认为，比特币 (BTC) 已经暂时触底，并将在未来几个月逐渐上涨。海耶斯在博文中分析了近期的市场下跌情况，并预测比特币将反弹至 6 万美元以上，并在 6 万至 7 万美元之间徘徊直至 8 月，然后在美联储量化紧缩和美国国债流动性增加的推动下，开始逐步上涨的趋势发行。

Bitcoin Market Correction: Experts Predict Gradual Recovery Amid Bullish Sentiment

比特币市场调整：专家预测在看涨情绪中逐步复苏

May 3, 2022

2022 年 5 月 3 日

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has asserted that Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a local bottom and anticipates a gradual upward trajectory over the coming months. In a blog post published on May 3, Hayes stated, "The price action played out as I expected."

BitMEX 前首席执行官阿瑟·海耶斯 (Arthur Hayes) 断言，比特币 (BTC) 已触底，并预计未来几个月将逐步上涨。海耶斯在 5 月 3 日发表的博客文章中表示，“价格走势正如我预期的那样。”

Bitcoin experienced a recent low of approximately $58,600 earlier this week but is projected to rebound above $60,000 and maintain a rangebound movement between $60,000 and $70,000 until August, Hayes noted.

Hayes 指出，本周早些时候，比特币跌至约 58,600 美元的近期低点，但预计将反弹至 60,000 美元以上，并在 8 月份之前维持在 60,000 美元至 70,000 美元之间的区间波动。

"The 12% Bitcoin retreat this week was a well-needed market cleansing," Hayes stated. He attributed the decline to factors including the tax season in the United States, concerns over Federal Reserve decisions, the "sell the news event" following the Bitcoin halving, and a slowdown in spot Bitcoin ETF asset under management growth.

Hayes 表示：“本周比特币下跌 12%，这是一次急需的市场清理。”他将下跌归因于包括美国纳税季、对美联储决策的担忧、比特币减半后的“抛售新闻事件”以及管理下的现货比特币 ETF 资产增长放缓等因素。

The 23% correction marked the fourth significant retracement of similar magnitude in the past 12 months.

此次 23% 的调整标志着过去 12 个月内第四次类似幅度的大幅回撤。

Hayes expressed optimism that crypto markets will experience a gradual upward trajectory following the recent sell-off. This optimism stems from increased dollar liquidity resulting from the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) tapering and the U.S. Treasury's debt issuance plans.

海耶斯乐观地认为，在最近的抛售之后，加密货币市场将经历逐步上升的轨迹。这种乐观情绪源于美联储量化紧缩（QT）缩减和美国财政部发债计划带来的美元流动性增加。

By tapering QT, the central bank is essentially injecting more liquidity into markets, potentially leading to an influx of funds into riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. Hayes views this liquidity injection as "stealth money printing," a positive factor for high-risk assets.

通过缩减 QT，央行实质上是向市场注入更多流动性，可能导致资金涌入加密货币等风险较高的资产。海耶斯将这种流动性注入视为“隐形印钞”，对高风险资产来说是一个积极因素。

"Are the recent Fed and Treasury policy announcements stealth forms of money printing? Yes," Hayes stated. "The slow addition of billions of dollars of liquidity each month will dampen negative price movement from here on out," he added, predicting that prices will "bottom, chop, and begin a slow grind higher."

海耶斯表示：“美联储和财政部最近宣布的政策是否属于秘密印钞形式？是的。”他补充说：“每月数十亿美元的流动性缓慢增加将抑制从现在开始的负面价格走势。”他预测价格将“触底、下跌，然后开始缓慢走高”。

Hayes is not alone in anticipating a sideways market for the next few months. Dr. Jeff Ross, Founder and CEO of Vailshire Capital Management, expressed a similar sentiment in a post on X on May 2. Despite market uncertainty, Ross stated, "I'm still respecting the ongoing bullcrab market."

海耶斯并不是唯一一个预计未来几个月市场将横盘整理的人。 Vailshire Capital Management 创始人兼首席执行官杰夫·罗斯 (Jeff Ross) 博士在 5 月 2 日的 X 帖子中表达了类似的观点。尽管市场存在不确定性，罗斯表示，“我仍然尊重当前的牛蟹市场。”

Ross interpreted the Fed's "rhetoric pivot" as an official shift from "bad-to-less-bad liquidity conditions." He believes that analysts and traders who have predicted the end of the Bitcoin bull market "may be dismayed to learn that the actual bull market hasn't even started yet." Ross concluded that the coming weeks will present an opportunity for accumulation.

罗斯将美联储的“言论转向”解读为官方从“流动性状况从糟糕转向不太糟糕”的转变。他认为，预测比特币牛市结束的分析师和交易员“可能会沮丧地发现，实际的牛市尚未开始”。罗斯总结道，未来几周将提供积累的机会。

Institutional crypto brokerage MatrixPort shared a similar outlook in a note to Cointelegraph, stating that historically, "Bitcoin tends to move sideways afterward for four to five months" following a halving.

机构加密经纪公司 MatrixPort 在给 Cointelegraph 的一份报告中分享了类似的前景，指出从历史上看，“比特币在减半后往往会在四到五个月内横向波动”。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin prices had rebounded by 4.2% to trade at $59,804. However, the asset remained 19% below its mid-March all-time high, according to CoinGecko.

截至撰写本文时，比特币价格已反弹 4.2%，至 59,804 美元。然而，根据 CoinGecko 的数据，该资产仍比 3 月中旬的历史高点低 19%。

Conclusion:

结论：

Industry experts, including former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes and others, anticipate a gradual recovery in the Bitcoin market following the recent correction. The increased liquidity resulting from the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening tapering and the U.S. Treasury's debt issuance plans is seen as a positive factor supporting a sustained upward trajectory. While the market may experience some volatility in the short term, long-term bullish sentiment remains intact, suggesting that the current correction presents an opportunity for accumulation.

包括 BitMEX 前首席执行官 Arthur Hayes 等在内的行业专家预计，比特币市场在最近的调整后将逐步复苏。美联储量化紧缩和美国财政部发债计划带来的流动性增加被视为支持持续上行轨迹的积极因素。尽管市场短期内可能会出现一些波动，但长期看涨情绪依然完好，表明当前的调整提供了吸筹的机会。