由於情緒轉變，比特幣 6.9 萬美元的支撐位面臨壓力

在調整期間，比特幣價格面臨 71,000 美元的阻力，導致專業交易者的看漲情緒下降，多空比率下降就是證明。儘管現貨 ETF 流量出現逆轉且淨流入回升，但由於全球經濟擔憂、盈利增長乏力以及聯準會缺乏降息承諾，交易員仍保持謹慎態度。因此，69,000 美元的支撐位尚不確定，更廣泛的經濟前景和外部壓力影響著比特幣的表現。

Is Bitcoin's Support Level at Risk?

比特幣的支撐位是否面臨風險？

Bitcoin (BTC) took a breather on March 27, pulling back to $68,430 after failing to breach the $71,000 resistance. Data on Bitcoin derivatives points to a shift in sentiment among professional traders, suggesting that the current support level of $69,000 may be vulnerable.

比特幣 (BTC) 於 3 月 27 日稍作喘息，在未能突破 71,000 美元阻力位後回落至 68,430 美元。比特幣衍生性商品數據顯示專業交易員的情緒發生轉變，顯示目前 69,000 美元的支撐位可能很脆弱。

Spot ETF Inflows: Key to Bitcoin's Trajectory?

現貨 ETF 流入：比特幣走勢的關鍵？

Despite a rally from $63,800 to $70,000 in the lead-up to March 27, only $151 million in leveraged short positions were forcibly closed in BTC futures markets. This lack of bear activity, despite significant net withdrawals from U.S. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), raises questions about the strength of the $69,000 support.

儘管截至 3 月 27 日，比特幣價格從 63,800 美元上漲至 70,000 美元，但 BTC 期貨市場上只有 1.51 億美元的槓桿空頭部位被強制平倉。儘管美國比特幣現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）出現大量淨撤資，但空頭活動的缺乏引發了人們對 69,000 美元支撐位強度的質疑。

Spot ETF Resilience Amidst Volatility

現貨 ETF 在波動中保持韌性

Bitcoin has shown resilience, recovering from a 17.6% drop from $73,757 on March 14 to $60,795 on March 20 without sparking panic among spot ETF investors. However, some analysts believe that the primary catalyst for BTC's recent highs was the surge in spot ETF inflows, highlighting their importance for bullish sentiment.

比特幣表現出了韌性，從 3 月 14 日的 73,757 美元跌幅 17.6% 恢復至 3 月 20 日的 60,795 美元，沒有引發現貨 ETF 投資者的恐慌。然而，一些分析師認為，BTC 近期高點的主要催化劑是現貨 ETF 資金流入的激增，凸顯了它們對看漲情緒的重要性。

Bull Ambitions: Revival of Spot ETF Flows

牛市野心：現貨 ETF 流量的復甦

Enthusiastically, this week brought a reversal in spot ETF flows, with a net inflow of $418 million on March 26. Notably, this reversal was not driven by reduced outflows from Grayscale's GBTC, suggesting genuine institutional demand. However, this alone does not guarantee that $69,000 will hold as support.

令人興奮的是，本週現貨ETF 流量出現逆轉，3 月26 日淨流入4.18 億美元。值得注意的是，這種逆轉並不是由Grayscale 的GBTC 流出減少推動的，這表明存在真正的機構需求。然而，僅此並不能保證 69,000 美元將成為支撐位。

Market Sentiment: Whales and Arbitrageurs Weigh In

市場情緒：鯨魚和套利者參與其中

To gauge the sentiment of whales and arbitrage desks, analysts scrutinize aggregated positions across spot, perpetual, and quarterly futures contracts.

為了衡量鯨魚和套利平台的情緒，分析師仔細審查了現貨、永續合約和季度期貨合約的總部位。

Binance: Long-to-short ratio among professional traders was 1.50 on March 22, favoring long positions. This ratio has since declined to 1.42.

幣安：3月22日，專業交易者的多空比為1.50，有利於多頭部位。此後該比率已降至 1.42。

OKX: The sentiment was bullish on March 22, with a long-to-short ratio of 3.22. This ratio has dwindled to 1.49, indicating a noticeable reduction in optimism among top traders, despite the 9.5% price increase during the period.

OKX：3月22日市場情緒看漲，多空比為3.22。該比率已降至 1.49，表明儘管在此期間價格上漲了 9.5%，但頂級交易商的樂觀情緒卻明顯下降。

Global Economic Concerns: Dampening Bullish Sentiment?

全球經濟擔憂：抑制看漲情緒？

Some analysts attribute Bitcoin's muted performance to the global economic downturn, particularly the S&P 500 index's inability to sustain its all-time high of 5,320 on March 21. Uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions for 2024 weighs on investor confidence, as rate cuts are generally viewed favorably by risk-on assets like Bitcoin. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's May 1 meeting is pegged at only 8%.

一些分析師將比特幣表現不佳歸因於全球經濟低迷，特別是標準普爾500 指數無法維持3 月21 日5,320 點的歷史高點。聯準會2024 年利率決定的不確定性影響了投資者的信心，因為降息通常受到比特幣等風險資產的青睞。根據 CME FedWatch 工具，聯準會 5 月 1 日會議降息的可能性僅為 8%。

Beyond Rate Cuts: Broader Economic Concerns

降息之外：更廣泛的經濟擔憂

Analysts caution that a Fed rate cut may not signal prosperity but rather trouble. Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group, raises concerns about the lack of earnings growth posing the greatest risk to the stock market. He also voices worries about the excessive reliance on artificial intelligence, which has played a significant role in recent market gains.

分析師警告稱，聯準會降息可能並不意味著繁榮，而是意味著麻煩。 Bespoke Investment Group 聯合創辦人 Paul Hickey 對獲利成長疲軟對股市構成最大風險表示擔憂。他也對過度依賴人工智慧表示擔憂，人工智慧在近期市場上漲中發揮了重要作用。

Diminished Leverage: Market Rotation or Recession Fears?

槓桿作用減弱：市場輪動還是經濟衰退擔憂？

Data on Bitcoin's top traders reveals a decline in preference for leveraged long positions, but this does not necessarily indicate a surge in bear sentiment. The shift may be attributed to simultaneous all-time highs in diverse asset classes, including gold, U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, Japan's Nikkei 225 index, and live cattle. This market behavior suggests anticipation of a weaker U.S. dollar against scarce resources.

比特幣頂級交易員的數據顯示，對槓桿多頭部位的偏好有所下降，但這並不一定表示空頭情緒激增。這種轉變可能歸因於不同資產類別同時創下歷史新高，包括黃金、美國股票、比特幣、日本日經 225 指數和活牛。這種市場行為顯示人們預期美元兌稀缺資源將走弱。

The diminished interest in leveraged BTC longs should not raise undue alarm or signal that Bitcoin will trade below $69,000. More likely, it reflects broader economic recession concerns and external pressures, such as the U.S. Justice Department's charges against KuCoin exchange on March 26 and the European Parliament's committee discussions on restricting cryptocurrency payments from self-hosted wallets.

對槓桿 BTC 多頭興趣的減弱不應引起過度恐慌或表明比特幣交易價格將低於 69,000 美元。更有可能的是，它反映了更廣泛的經濟衰退擔憂和外部壓力，例如美國司法部3月26日對KuCoin交易所的指控以及歐洲議會委員會關於限制自託管錢包的加密貨幣支付的討論。