現貨 ETF 可能會緩解比特幣減半的影響

Glassnode 表示，由於現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）的出現，即將到來的比特幣減半可能不會引發預期的供應緊張。 ETF 讓投資者間接投資比特幣，導致需求增加和可用供應減少。這種先發制人的供應緊縮可能會減輕減半的影響，因為比特幣湧入 ETF 已經造成了供應緊張。

Bitcoin Halving: Spot ETFs May Mitigate Anticipated Supply Squeeze

比特幣減半：現貨 ETF 可能緩解預期的供應緊張

A recent report by the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode suggests that the upcoming Bitcoin halving, a periodic event that cuts block rewards by 50%, may not have as significant an impact on the cryptocurrency's supply dynamics as anticipated.

鏈上分析公司 Glassnode 最近的一份報告表明，即將到來的比特幣減半（將區塊獎勵削減 50% 的周期性事件）可能不會像預期的那樣對加密貨幣的供應動態產生重大影響。

Historical Significance of Halvings

減半的歷史意義

Halvings have historically been viewed as bullish events for Bitcoin, as they constrict the supply of new coins entering circulation. The halving mechanism, built into the blockchain code, triggers a reduction in block rewards every 210,000 blocks, approximately every four years. The next halving is expected to occur within the next month.

歷史上，減半被視為比特幣的看漲事件，因為它們限制了進入流通的新硬幣的供應。區塊鏈程式碼內建的減半機制，每 21 萬個區塊（大約每四年）就會觸發區塊獎勵減少。下一次減半預計將在下個月內發生。

Traditionally, halvings have influenced supply dynamics by slowing down the rate of BTC production since block rewards are the sole means of introducing new tokens. This supply constraint, coupled with steady demand, has often led to price appreciation following halvings.

傳統上，減半會降低比特幣的生產速度，進而影響供應動態，因為區塊獎勵是引入新代幣的唯一手段。這種供應限制加上穩定的需求往往導致減半後價格上漲。

Spot ETFs: A Game-Changer

現貨 ETF：遊戲規則改變者

However, Glassnode contends that the current market conditions differ from historical norms due to the emergence of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These ETFs, which invest directly in Bitcoin, provide indirect exposure to its price action. Their availability on traditional exchanges makes them attractive to investors who prefer to avoid the complexity of digital asset platforms and wallets.

然而，Glassnode 認為，由於現貨交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的出現，當前的市場狀況與歷史常態不同。這些直接投資於比特幣的 ETF 提供了對其價格走勢的間接曝險。它們在傳統交易所的可用性使得它們對那些喜歡避免數位資產平台和錢包複雜性的投資者俱有吸引力。

ETFs' Impact on Supply Dynamics

ETF 對供應動態的影響

Spot ETFs have introduced substantial demand for Bitcoin, resulting in a rapid withdrawal of supply from the market. Glassnode has compared the ETF inflows to the amount of BTC issued by miners daily, demonstrating that ETF flows have consistently exceeded miners' issuance.

現貨 ETF 引入了對比特幣的大量需求，導致市場供應迅速撤出。 Glassnode 將 ETF 流入量與礦工每日發行的 BTC 數量進行了比較，顯示 ETF 流量一直超過礦工的發行量。

Glassnode posits that "the upcoming halving might not result in the supply squeeze once anticipated." The report asserts that "ETFs are, in essence, preempting the halving's impact by already tightening the available supply through their substantial and continuous buying activity."

Glassnode 認為，“即將到來的減半可能不會導致預期的供應緊張。”該報告聲稱，“ETF本質上是透過大量持續的購買活動來收緊可用供應，從而搶佔減半的影響。”

Potential Challenges

潛在的挑戰

While spot ETFs have largely been a bullish influence for Bitcoin, Glassnode cautions that their presence does not guarantee a perpetually bullish market. If the current inflow-heavy regime reverses, leading to significant outflows, the cryptocurrency could face substantial selling pressure.

雖然現貨 ETF 在很大程度上對比特幣產生了看漲影響，但 Glassnode 警告稱，它們的存在並不能保證市場永遠看漲。如果當前的大量資金流入狀況發生逆轉，導致大量資金流出，加密貨幣可能會面臨巨大的拋售壓力。

Current Market Conditions

目前的市場狀況

In the past four days, Bitcoin spot ETF netflows have been negative, suggesting that a trend shift may already be underway. The cryptocurrency's price, which had briefly recovered above $68,000 yesterday, has since declined to around $64,200.

過去四天，比特幣現貨 ETF 淨流量為負，顯示趨勢轉變可能已經開始。該加密貨幣的價格昨天短暫回升至 68,000 美元以上，此後已跌至 64,200 美元左右。

Conclusion

結論

Glassnode's analysis suggests that the upcoming Bitcoin halving might not trigger the anticipated supply squeeze due to the significant demand created by spot ETFs. While spot ETFs have played a positive role in expanding access to Bitcoin, their potential for volatility in the event of large-scale outflows cannot be overlooked.

Glassnode 的分析表明，由於現貨 ETF 產生的巨大需求，即將到來的比特幣減半可能不會引發預期的供應緊張。雖然現貨ETF在擴大比特幣獲取管道方面發揮了積極作用，但在大規模資金外流時其波動的潛力也不容忽視。