比特幣減半迫在眉睫：重大軟體更新為礦工帶來財務挑戰

備受期待的比特幣區塊獎勵「減半」定於 2023 年 4 月進行，預計每年將導致挖礦收入減少約 100 億美元。這種下降將加劇該行業不斷增加的成本，包括能源消耗的不斷升級以及人工智慧產業對電力的競爭。私人礦業公司缺乏上市公司的融資能力，由於嚴重依賴債務或創投融資，因此面臨更大的脆弱性。

Bitcoin Halving: A Major Software Update with Significant Financial Implications

比特幣減半：具有重大財務影響的重大軟體更新

Prologue: The Significance of the Halving

前言：減半的意義

The upcoming halving, a pivotal event scheduled for approximately April 20th, is a software update that occurs every four years in the Bitcoin ecosystem. This update is specifically designed to reduce the amount of Bitcoin rewarded to miners, the individuals who validate transactions on the blockchain network. The halving has historically been regarded as a catalyst for price increases, but this time around, it is anticipated to trigger a substantial decline in revenue for mining companies, who are already grappling with surging operational costs.

即將到來的減半是定於 4 月 20 日左右發生的關鍵事件，是比特幣生態系統中每四年進行一次的軟體更新。此更新專門用於減少獎勵給礦工（即在區塊鏈網路上驗證交易的個人）的比特幣數量。減半歷來被視為價格上漲的催化劑，但這一次，預計將引發礦業公司收入大幅下降，因為礦業公司已經在應對營運成本飆升的問題。

Impact on Mining Revenue

對挖礦收入的影響

The halving will slash the daily Bitcoin reward for miners from its current level of 900 to 450. This reduction, coupled with the current price of Bitcoin, could result in an estimated loss of approximately $10 billion per year for the mining industry as a whole. To mitigate this revenue drop, mining companies such as Marathon Digital Holdings and CleanSpark have invested heavily in new equipment and acquisitions of smaller competitors.

減半將使礦工的每日比特幣獎勵從目前的 900 枚削減至 450 枚。為了緩解收入下降的影響，Marathon Digital Holdings 和 CleanSpark 等礦業公司大力投資新設備並收購規模較小的競爭對手。

Intensifying Competition for Resources

資源競爭加劇

Mining Bitcoin requires specialized computers that solve complex mathematical puzzles. As miners compete for a fixed reward, they are constantly investing in more powerful machines to increase their chances of winning. However, the ongoing technological arms race is driving up costs, and miners now face even fiercer competition for energy resources from the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence (AI) industry.

開採比特幣需要專門的計算機來解決複雜的數學難題。當礦工爭奪固定獎勵時，他們不斷投資更強大的機器以增加獲勝的機會。然而，持續的技術軍備競賽正在推高成本，礦商現在面臨著來自快速擴張的人工智慧（AI）產業對能源資源的更激烈的競爭。

Energy Constraints and AI's Influence

能源限制和人工智慧的影響

The energy-intensive process of validating Bitcoin transactions has always been a major expense for miners, but the proliferation of AI companies has intensified the competition for power. Deep-pocketed tech giants like Amazon, Blackstone, Google, and Microsoft are investing heavily in data centers, which are also known for their high energy consumption. This has led to a surge in electricity prices, further squeezing miners' margins. David Foley, co-managing partner at Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, highlighted that "The artificial intelligence crowd is willing to pay three or four times what Bitcoin miners were paying last year" for electricity.

驗證比特幣交易的能源密集過程一直是礦工的主要開支，但人工智慧公司的激增加劇了權力競爭。亞馬遜、黑石、Google和微軟等財力雄厚的科技巨頭正大力投資資料中心，而這些資料中心也以高能耗而聞名。這導致電價飆升，進一步擠壓礦工的利潤。比特幣機會基金聯合管理合夥人 David Foley 強調，「人工智慧群體願意支付比去年比特幣礦工支付的三到四倍的電費」。

Market Positioning of Public and Private Miners

公共和私人礦工的市場定位

While US-listed miners represent a prominent face of the industry, they account for only about 20% of the sector's overall computing power. Private miners constitute the remaining 80% and may be more vulnerable after the halving, as they typically rely on debt financing or venture capital to cover their costs, while public companies can raise funds through stock sales.

雖然在美國上市的礦商代表了該行業的知名面孔，但它們僅佔該行業整體算力的 20% 左右。剩下的 80% 是私人礦商，在減半後可能會更加脆弱，因為他們通常依靠債務融資或風險資本來支付成本，而上市公司可以透過股票銷售籌集資金。

Short-Selling Trend and Market Sentiment

賣空趨勢和市場情緒

As the halving approaches, traders have been betting on a potential decline in mining stocks. Total short interest, an indicator of bearish market sentiment, stood at approximately $2 billion as of April 11th. This figure accounted for nearly 15% of the group's outstanding shares, significantly higher than the US average of 4.75%.

隨著減半的臨近，交易員一直押注礦業股可能下跌。截至 4 月 11 日，作為市場看跌情緒指標的空頭利息總額約為 20 億美元。這一數字佔該集團已發行股票的近15%，顯著高於美國平均4.75%。

Historical Context and Long-Term Impact

歷史背景和長期影響

The upcoming halving will be the fourth such event since the inception of Bitcoin in 2012. It was pre-programmed by the anonymous creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, to ensure a hard cap of 21 million tokens and prevent inflation. While Bitcoin has historically experienced price increases following halvings, mitigating the drop in mining rewards, the industry landscape has evolved significantly since the last halving in 2020. The increased competition, rising costs, and technological advancements have created a more challenging environment for miners.

即將到來的減半將是自2012 年比特幣誕生以來的第四次此類事件。通貨膨脹。雖然比特幣歷來經歷減半後價格上漲的情況，從而緩解了挖礦獎勵的下降，但自2020 年上次減半以來，行業格局已經發生了顯著變化。為礦工創造了更具挑戰性的環境。

Conclusion

結論

The upcoming halving is a pivotal event for the Bitcoin ecosystem and the companies that sustain its infrastructure. While the long-term impact remains uncertain, the halving is expected to trigger a significant decline in revenue for miners, intensify competition for resources, and potentially reshape the market dynamics. As the industry navigates these challenges, it will be crucial for miners to adapt and evolve their strategies to remain competitive and secure their position in the ever-changing cryptocurrency landscape.

即將到來的減半對於比特幣生態系統和維持其基礎設施的公司來說是一個關鍵事件。儘管長期影響仍不確定，但減半預計將引發礦商收入大幅下降，加劇資源競爭，並可能重塑市場動態。隨著產業應對這些挑戰，礦商調整和發展其策略以保持競爭力並確保其在不斷變化的加密貨幣領域中的地位至關重要。