比特幣減半：對供應、價格和挖礦的影響

比特幣（BTC）減半後，供應通膨率大幅下降至0.85%，超過黃金2.3%的發行率。雖然比特幣多頭表示，有限的供應將增強其價值儲存潛力，但分析師認為，減半對價格的影響仍然值得懷疑，因為與整體交易量相比，受影響的代幣數量相對較少。

Bitcoin's Halving: A Comprehensive Analysis of Its Impact

比特幣減半：對其影響的綜合分析

Introduction

介紹

On April 11, 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) underwent its fourth halving event, marking a significant milestone in the cryptocurrency's history. Halvings, which occur approximately every four years, involve a reduction in the block reward for Bitcoin miners, effectively diminishing the supply of new BTC entering the market. This event has garnered significant attention within the cryptocurrency community, with analysts eagerly assessing its potential implications on Bitcoin's supply dynamics, price trajectory, and the mining industry.

2024 年 4 月 11 日，比特幣 (BTC) 經歷了第四次減半事件，標誌著加密貨幣歷史上的重要里程碑。減半大約每四年發生一次，涉及比特幣礦工的區塊獎勵減少，從而有效減少了進入市場的新比特幣供應。這一事件在加密貨幣社群中引起了極大關注，分析師急切地評估其對比特幣供應動態、價格軌跡和採礦業的潛在影響。

Supply Inflation Rate Collapse

供應通膨率崩潰

One of the most immediate effects of the halving is the substantial reduction in Bitcoin's supply inflation rate. The halving event halved the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, resulting in a significant decrease in the daily supply of new Bitcoins. Prior to the halving, Bitcoin's supply inflation rate stood at approximately 1.7%. However, with the halving, the inflation rate has fallen to an estimated 0.85%, placing it substantially below the 2.3% inflation rate of gold, a traditional store of value asset.

減半最直接的影響之一是比特幣供應通膨率大幅下降。減半事件將區塊獎勵從 6.25 BTC 減半至 3.125 BTC，導致每日新比特幣供應量大幅減少。在減半之前，比特幣的供應通膨率約為 1.7%。然而，隨著減半，通膨率已降至估計的 0.85%，遠低於傳統保值資產黃金 2.3% 的通膨率。

This reduction in inflation rate suggests that Bitcoin's supply growth has slowed down considerably. As a result, Bitcoin's scarcity becomes more pronounced, potentially enhancing its attractiveness as a deflationary asset.

通貨膨脹率的下降表明比特幣的供應增長已大大放緩。因此，比特幣的稀缺性變得更加明顯，可能會增強其作為通貨緊縮資產的吸引力。

Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Scarcity Advantage

比特幣與黃金：稀缺性優勢

Bitcoin proponents frequently draw comparisons between Bitcoin and gold, highlighting Bitcoin's digital nature as an advantage over precious metals. They argue that Bitcoin's divisibility and portability make it a more practical medium of exchange in the modern digital age. The halving event further solidifies Bitcoin's scarcity compared to gold, reinforcing the argument that Bitcoin may serve as a more effective store of value over time.

比特幣支持者經常將比特幣和黃金進行比較，強調比特幣的數位性質相對於貴金屬的優勢。他們認為，比特幣的可分割性和可移植性使其成為現代數位時代更實用的交換媒介。減半事件進一步鞏固了比特幣相對於黃金的稀缺性，強化了比特幣隨著時間的推移可能成為更有效的價值儲存手段的論點。

Price Movements: Halving Impact Uncertain

價格走勢：減半影響不確定

While the halving's impact on Bitcoin's supply dynamics is evident, its influence on price movements remains a subject of debate among analysts. Some believe the halving is a significant bullish catalyst, citing historical price surges following previous halvings. However, others argue that the halving's impact on price is negligible, given the relatively small percentage of new coins introduced to the market compared to the existing supply.

儘管減半對比特幣供應動態的影響顯而易見，但其對價格走勢的影響仍是分析師爭論的話題。有些人認為，減半是重要的看漲催化劑，理由是先前減半後的歷史價格飆升。然而，其他人認為，鑑於與現有供應量相比，進入市場的新代幣比例相對較小，減半對價格的影響可以忽略不計。

Glassnode's Analysis: Halving as a "Narrative Game"

Glassnode的分析：減半是一個“敘事遊戲”

A recent on-chain analysis report by Glassnode suggests that the halving's impact on Bitcoin's price is overstated. The report highlights that the number of coins removed from the market through the halving is dwarfed by the volume of coins traded on exchanges daily. Lead analyst James Check refers to the halving as a "narrative game" that has limited practical significance.

Glassnode 最近的一份鏈上分析報告表明，減半對比特幣價格的影響被誇大了。該報告強調，透過減半從市場上撤出的代幣數量與交易所每日交易的代幣數量相形見絀。首席分析師 James Check 將減半稱為“敘事遊戲”，實際意義有限。

Diminishing Investment Returns

投資報酬率遞減

Glassnode's analysis also indicates diminishing investment returns between Bitcoin halvings. While Bitcoin's price rose by 1,336% between the third and fourth halving epochs, the price increase during the fourth epoch was a more modest 569%. This suggests that as Bitcoin's market capitalization grows, the amount of capital required to move the price higher also increases.

Glassnode 的分析還表明，比特幣減半期間的投資回報正在減少。雖然比特幣的價格在第三和第四個減半時期上漲了 1,336%，但第四個時期的價格漲幅較為溫和，為 569%。這表明，隨著比特幣市值的增長，推高價格所需的資金量也會增加。

Mining Industry Resilience

採礦業的彈性

Despite the halving's reduction in miner revenues, the Bitcoin mining industry has remained resilient. Network hash rates have held steady at or near all-time highs, indicating that miners are continuing to invest in their operations. Additionally, the recent launch of the Bitcoin token protocol "Runes" has driven up network transaction fees, resulting in a surge in miner revenues post-halving.

儘管減半導致礦工收入減少，但比特幣採礦業仍保持彈性。網路哈希率一直穩定在或接近歷史高點，這表明礦工正在繼續投資於他們的營運。此外，最近推出的比特幣代幣協議「Runes」推高了網路交易費用，導致減半後礦工收入激增。

Conclusion

結論

The fourth Bitcoin halving has had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency's supply dynamics, reducing its inflation rate and solidifying its scarcity compared to gold. However, its influence on Bitcoin's price remains uncertain, with analysts offering contrasting views on its significance. Nonetheless, the halving serves as a reminder of Bitcoin's unique monetary properties, its potential as a store of value, and the ongoing evolution of the cryptocurrency landscape. As Bitcoin continues to mature, its resilience and adaptability will undoubtedly be tested in the years to come.

比特幣第四次減半對加密貨幣的供應動態產生了重大影響，降低了其通貨膨脹率並鞏固了其相對於黃金的稀缺性。然而，它對比特幣價格的影響仍然不確定，分析師對其重要性提出了截然不同的看法。儘管如此，減半提醒人們注意比特幣獨特的貨幣屬性、其作為價值儲存手段的潛力以及加密貨幣格局的持續演變。隨著比特幣的不斷成熟，其彈性和適應性無疑將在未來幾年受到考驗。