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比特币(BTC)减半后,供应通胀率大幅下降至0.85%,超过黄金2.3%的发行率。虽然比特币多头表示,有限的供应将增强其价值存储潜力,但分析师认为,减半对价格的影响仍然值得怀疑,因为与总体交易量相比,受影响的代币数量相对较少。
Bitcoin's Halving: A Comprehensive Analysis of Its Impact
比特币减半:对其影响的综合分析
Introduction
介绍
On April 11, 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) underwent its fourth halving event, marking a significant milestone in the cryptocurrency's history. Halvings, which occur approximately every four years, involve a reduction in the block reward for Bitcoin miners, effectively diminishing the supply of new BTC entering the market. This event has garnered significant attention within the cryptocurrency community, with analysts eagerly assessing its potential implications on Bitcoin's supply dynamics, price trajectory, and the mining industry.
2024 年 4 月 11 日,比特币 (BTC) 经历了第四次减半事件,标志着加密货币历史上的一个重要里程碑。减半大约每四年发生一次,涉及比特币矿工的区块奖励减少,从而有效减少了进入市场的新比特币供应。这一事件在加密货币社区中引起了极大关注,分析师急切地评估其对比特币供应动态、价格轨迹和采矿业的潜在影响。
Supply Inflation Rate Collapse
供应通胀率崩溃
One of the most immediate effects of the halving is the substantial reduction in Bitcoin's supply inflation rate. The halving event halved the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, resulting in a significant decrease in the daily supply of new Bitcoins. Prior to the halving, Bitcoin's supply inflation rate stood at approximately 1.7%. However, with the halving, the inflation rate has fallen to an estimated 0.85%, placing it substantially below the 2.3% inflation rate of gold, a traditional store of value asset.
减半最直接的影响之一是比特币供应通胀率大幅下降。减半事件将区块奖励从 6.25 BTC 减半至 3.125 BTC,导致每日新比特币供应量大幅减少。在减半之前,比特币的供应通胀率约为 1.7%。然而,随着减半,通胀率已降至估计的 0.85%,远低于传统保值资产黄金 2.3% 的通胀率。
This reduction in inflation rate suggests that Bitcoin's supply growth has slowed down considerably. As a result, Bitcoin's scarcity becomes more pronounced, potentially enhancing its attractiveness as a deflationary asset.
通货膨胀率的下降表明比特币的供应增长已大大放缓。因此,比特币的稀缺性变得更加明显,可能会增强其作为通缩资产的吸引力。
Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Scarcity Advantage
比特币与黄金:稀缺性优势
Bitcoin proponents frequently draw comparisons between Bitcoin and gold, highlighting Bitcoin's digital nature as an advantage over precious metals. They argue that Bitcoin's divisibility and portability make it a more practical medium of exchange in the modern digital age. The halving event further solidifies Bitcoin's scarcity compared to gold, reinforcing the argument that Bitcoin may serve as a more effective store of value over time.
比特币支持者经常将比特币和黄金进行比较,强调比特币的数字性质相对于贵金属的优势。他们认为,比特币的可分割性和可移植性使其成为现代数字时代更实用的交换媒介。减半事件进一步巩固了比特币相对于黄金的稀缺性,强化了比特币随着时间的推移可能成为更有效的价值储存手段的论点。
Price Movements: Halving Impact Uncertain
价格走势:减半影响不确定
While the halving's impact on Bitcoin's supply dynamics is evident, its influence on price movements remains a subject of debate among analysts. Some believe the halving is a significant bullish catalyst, citing historical price surges following previous halvings. However, others argue that the halving's impact on price is negligible, given the relatively small percentage of new coins introduced to the market compared to the existing supply.
尽管减半对比特币供应动态的影响显而易见,但其对价格走势的影响仍然是分析师争论的话题。一些人认为,减半是一个重要的看涨催化剂,理由是之前减半后的历史价格飙升。然而,其他人认为,鉴于与现有供应量相比,进入市场的新代币所占比例相对较小,减半对价格的影响可以忽略不计。
Glassnode's Analysis: Halving as a "Narrative Game"
Glassnode的分析:减半是一个“叙事游戏”
A recent on-chain analysis report by Glassnode suggests that the halving's impact on Bitcoin's price is overstated. The report highlights that the number of coins removed from the market through the halving is dwarfed by the volume of coins traded on exchanges daily. Lead analyst James Check refers to the halving as a "narrative game" that has limited practical significance.
Glassnode 最近的一份链上分析报告表明,减半对比特币价格的影响被夸大了。该报告强调,通过减半从市场上撤出的代币数量与交易所每日交易的代币数量相形见绌。首席分析师 James Check 将减半称为“叙事游戏”,实际意义有限。
Diminishing Investment Returns
投资回报递减
Glassnode's analysis also indicates diminishing investment returns between Bitcoin halvings. While Bitcoin's price rose by 1,336% between the third and fourth halving epochs, the price increase during the fourth epoch was a more modest 569%. This suggests that as Bitcoin's market capitalization grows, the amount of capital required to move the price higher also increases.
Glassnode 的分析还表明,比特币减半期间的投资回报正在减少。虽然比特币的价格在第三个和第四个减半时期上涨了 1,336%,但第四个时期的价格涨幅较为温和,为 569%。这表明,随着比特币市值的增长,推高价格所需的资金量也会增加。
Mining Industry Resilience
采矿业的弹性
Despite the halving's reduction in miner revenues, the Bitcoin mining industry has remained resilient. Network hash rates have held steady at or near all-time highs, indicating that miners are continuing to invest in their operations. Additionally, the recent launch of the Bitcoin token protocol "Runes" has driven up network transaction fees, resulting in a surge in miner revenues post-halving.
尽管减半导致矿工收入减少,但比特币采矿业仍然保持弹性。网络哈希率一直稳定在或接近历史高点,这表明矿工正在继续投资于他们的运营。此外,最近推出的比特币代币协议“Runes”推高了网络交易费用,导致减半后矿工收入激增。
Conclusion
结论
The fourth Bitcoin halving has had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency's supply dynamics, reducing its inflation rate and solidifying its scarcity compared to gold. However, its influence on Bitcoin's price remains uncertain, with analysts offering contrasting views on its significance. Nonetheless, the halving serves as a reminder of Bitcoin's unique monetary properties, its potential as a store of value, and the ongoing evolution of the cryptocurrency landscape. As Bitcoin continues to mature, its resilience and adaptability will undoubtedly be tested in the years to come.
比特币第四次减半对加密货币的供应动态产生了重大影响,降低了其通货膨胀率并巩固了其相对于黄金的稀缺性。然而,它对比特币价格的影响仍然不确定,分析师对其重要性提出了截然不同的看法。尽管如此,减半提醒人们注意比特币独特的货币属性、其作为价值储存手段的潜力以及加密货币格局的持续演变。随着比特币的不断成熟,其弹性和适应性无疑将在未来几年受到考验。
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