比特幣減半迫在眉睫：供應減少可能推動價格飆升

比特幣減半事件定於週五晚些時候或週六早些時候舉行，涉及新比特幣的發行量減少一半，從而影響加密貨幣的供應和潛在價值。從歷史上看，減半與價格上漲有關，但由於與影響比特幣市場表現的地緣政治緊張局勢同時發生，即將到來的減半引起了人們的關注。

Bitcoin Halving: A Reduction in Supply and a Potential Impact on Prices

比特幣減半：供應減少及其對價格的潛在影響

The highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, a significant milestone in the cryptocurrency's history, is projected to occur within the next 48 hours, either late Friday or early Saturday. This event refers to a predetermined alteration in the underlying blockchain technology of Bitcoin, specifically designed to reduce the issuance rate of new bitcoins.

備受期待的比特幣減半是加密貨幣歷史上的重要里程碑，預計將在未來 48 小時內（週五晚間或週六早）發生。該事件是指比特幣底層區塊鏈技術的預定變更，專門用於降低新比特幣的發行率。

Understanding Bitcoin Halving

了解比特幣減半

Bitcoin's genesis block, created by the enigmatic figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto, established a finite supply of 21 million tokens. To date, this halving event marks the fourth iteration in Bitcoin's existence. The inaugural halving in 2012 witnessed the block reward drop from 50 bitcoins to 25 bitcoins. This upcoming halving will further reduce the reward to 3.125 bitcoins, currently valued at approximately $200,000 based on Bitcoin's current market price of $64,000.

比特幣的創世區塊由神秘人物中本聰 (Satoshi Nakamoto) 創建，規定了 2,100 萬枚代幣的有限供應。迄今為止，這次減半事件標誌著比特幣存在的第四次迭代。 2012 年首次減半見證了區塊獎勵從 50 比特幣降至 25 比特幣。即將到來的減半將進一步將獎勵減少至 3.125 個比特幣，根據比特幣目前 64,000 美元的市場價格，目前價值約為 20 萬美元。

The halving process will continue until 2041, at which point all bitcoins will have been mined. However, this particular halving event is expected to exhibit unique characteristics due to recent geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, which have introduced an element of market instability. As a result, Bitcoin experienced a substantial downturn, plummeting to its lowest level in a month. On Friday, during the Asia trading session, Bitcoin underwent a decline exceeding 5.5%, reaching a low of $59,961.

減半過程將持續到 2041 年，屆時所有比特幣都將被開採完畢。然而，由於最近伊朗和以色列之間的地緣政治緊張局勢引入了市場不穩定的因素，預計這一特殊的減半事件將表現出獨特的特徵。結果，比特幣經歷了大幅下滑，跌至一個月來的最低點。週五亞洲交易時段，比特幣跌幅超過 5.5%，觸及 59,961 美元的低點。

Potential Impact on the Crypto Market

對加密貨幣市場的潛在影響

Industry experts posit that the halving event may exert a significant influence on Bitcoin's price. The reduced supply could potentially lead to upward pressure on prices, enticing a surge of new investors into the cryptocurrency market. Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited a pronounced rally approximately 60 days before the halving event. This pattern has been consistently observed in past cycles, including 2016 and 2020, with the cryptocurrency frequently reaching new all-time highs.

業內專家認為，減半事件可能會對比特幣價格造成重大影響。供應減少可能會導致價格上漲壓力，吸引大量新投資者進入加密貨幣市場。從歷史上看，比特幣在減半事件前約 60 天出現了明顯的反彈。這種模式在過去的周期（包括 2016 年和 2020 年）中得到了一致觀察，加密貨幣經常創下歷史新高。

Following the initial rally, a retracement period often ensues, typically occurring within 28 to 14 days of the halving. The 2020 cycle featured a 19% retrace, while the 2016 cycle experienced a more pronounced 40% retrace when considering downside wicks.

在最初的反彈之後，通常會出現回調期，通常發生在減半後的 28 至 14 天內。考慮到下行影線，2020 年周期出現了 19% 的回撤，而 2016 年周期則經歷了更明顯的 40% 回撤。

Rajagopal Menon, Vice President of WazirX, provides insights into the post-halving market dynamics: "After the halving, Bitcoin typically enters a phase of sideways movement, which can be characterized as reaccumulation. This phase generally transpires at levels around previous all-time highs, preparing the market for the next impulsive wave of price increases. Historical data suggests that post-halving reaccumulation phases tend to precede parabolic price surges. This pattern is evident in the aftermath of the 2020 halving event, where a substantial upward trajectory followed the halving and reaccumulation stages."

WazirX 副總裁 Rajagopal Menon 提供了對減半後市場動態的見解：「減半後，比特幣通常會進入橫盤運動階段，這可以被稱為重新積累。這個階段通常發生在先前歷史水平附近歷史數據表明，減半後的重新積累階段往往先於拋物線價格飆升，這種模式在2020 年減半事件之後很明顯，隨後出現大幅上漲。

However, Menon also cautions: "While the consensus suggests that prices should rise due to the supply shock, geopolitical factors, such as the ongoing conflict, could potentially cause market fluctuations, as witnessed over the past weekend."

不過，梅農也警告說：“雖然共識表明價格應因供應衝擊而上漲，但地緣政治因素，例如持續的衝突，可能會導致市場波動，正如上週末所見證的那樣。”

Conclusion

結論

The upcoming Bitcoin halving event is a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency's history, with the potential to shape its future trajectory. The reduced supply of new bitcoins could ignite a renewed wave of investor interest, potentially driving prices upwards. However, it is crucial to acknowledge the influence of external factors, such as geopolitical tensions, which could introduce volatility to the market.

即將到來的比特幣減半事件是加密貨幣歷史上的關鍵時刻，有可能塑造其未來的軌跡。新比特幣供應的減少可能會激發新一輪投資者興趣，從而可能推動價格上漲。然而，至關重要的是要承認外部因素的影響，例如地緣政治緊張局勢，這可能會為市場帶來波動。