比特币减半迫在眉睫：供应减少可能推动价格飙升

比特币减半事件定于周五晚些时候或周六早些时候举行，涉及新比特币的发行量减少一半，从而影响加密货币的供应和潜在价值。从历史上看，减半与价格上涨有关，但由于与影响比特币市场表现的地缘政治紧张局势同时发生，即将到来的减半引起了人们的关注。

Bitcoin Halving: A Reduction in Supply and a Potential Impact on Prices

比特币减半：供应减少及其对价格的潜在影响

The highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, a significant milestone in the cryptocurrency's history, is projected to occur within the next 48 hours, either late Friday or early Saturday. This event refers to a predetermined alteration in the underlying blockchain technology of Bitcoin, specifically designed to reduce the issuance rate of new bitcoins.

备受期待的比特币减半事件是加密货币历史上的一个重要里程碑，预计将在未来 48 小时内（周五晚或周六早）发生。该事件是指比特币底层区块链技术的预定变更，专门用于降低新比特币的发行率。

Understanding Bitcoin Halving

了解比特币减半

Bitcoin's genesis block, created by the enigmatic figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto, established a finite supply of 21 million tokens. To date, this halving event marks the fourth iteration in Bitcoin's existence. The inaugural halving in 2012 witnessed the block reward drop from 50 bitcoins to 25 bitcoins. This upcoming halving will further reduce the reward to 3.125 bitcoins, currently valued at approximately $200,000 based on Bitcoin's current market price of $64,000.

比特币的创世区块由神秘人物中本聪 (Satoshi Nakamoto) 创建，规定了 2100 万枚代币的有限供应。迄今为止，这次减半事件标志着比特币存在的第四次迭代。 2012 年首次减半见证了区块奖励从 50 比特币降至 25 比特币。即将到来的减半将进一步将奖励减少至 3.125 个比特币，根据比特币当前 64,000 美元的市场价格，目前价值约为 200,000 美元。

The halving process will continue until 2041, at which point all bitcoins will have been mined. However, this particular halving event is expected to exhibit unique characteristics due to recent geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, which have introduced an element of market instability. As a result, Bitcoin experienced a substantial downturn, plummeting to its lowest level in a month. On Friday, during the Asia trading session, Bitcoin underwent a decline exceeding 5.5%, reaching a low of $59,961.

减半过程将持续到 2041 年，届时所有比特币都将被开采完毕。然而，由于最近伊朗和以色列之间的地缘政治紧张局势引入了市场不稳定的因素，预计这一特殊的减半事件将表现出独特的特征。结果，比特币经历了大幅下滑，跌至一个月来的最低水平。周五亚洲交易时段，比特币跌幅超过 5.5%，触及 59,961 美元的低点。

Potential Impact on the Crypto Market

对加密货币市场的潜在影响

Industry experts posit that the halving event may exert a significant influence on Bitcoin's price. The reduced supply could potentially lead to upward pressure on prices, enticing a surge of new investors into the cryptocurrency market. Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited a pronounced rally approximately 60 days before the halving event. This pattern has been consistently observed in past cycles, including 2016 and 2020, with the cryptocurrency frequently reaching new all-time highs.

业内专家认为，减半事件可能会对比特币价格产生重大影响。供应减少可能会导致价格上涨压力，吸引大量新投资者进入加密货币市场。从历史上看，比特币在减半事件前约 60 天出现了明显的反弹。这种模式在过去的周期（包括 2016 年和 2020 年）中得到了一致观察，加密货币经常创下历史新高。

Following the initial rally, a retracement period often ensues, typically occurring within 28 to 14 days of the halving. The 2020 cycle featured a 19% retrace, while the 2016 cycle experienced a more pronounced 40% retrace when considering downside wicks.

在最初的反弹之后，通常会出现回调期，通常发生在减半后的 28 至 14 天内。考虑到下行影线，2020 年周期出现了 19% 的回撤，而 2016 年周期则经历了更明显的 40% 回撤。

Rajagopal Menon, Vice President of WazirX, provides insights into the post-halving market dynamics: "After the halving, Bitcoin typically enters a phase of sideways movement, which can be characterized as reaccumulation. This phase generally transpires at levels around previous all-time highs, preparing the market for the next impulsive wave of price increases. Historical data suggests that post-halving reaccumulation phases tend to precede parabolic price surges. This pattern is evident in the aftermath of the 2020 halving event, where a substantial upward trajectory followed the halving and reaccumulation stages."

WazirX 副总裁 Rajagopal Menon 提供了对减半后市场动态的见解：“减半后，比特币通常会进入横盘运动阶段，这可以被称为重新积累。这个阶段通常发生在之前历史水平附近历史数据表明，减半后的重新积累阶段往往先于抛物线价格飙升，这种模式在 2020 年减半事件之后很明显，随后出现大幅上涨。减半和重新积累阶段。”

However, Menon also cautions: "While the consensus suggests that prices should rise due to the supply shock, geopolitical factors, such as the ongoing conflict, could potentially cause market fluctuations, as witnessed over the past weekend."

不过，梅农也警告说：“虽然共识表明价格应因供应冲击而上涨，但地缘政治因素，例如持续的冲突，可能会导致市场波动，正如上周末所见证的那样。”

Conclusion

结论

The upcoming Bitcoin halving event is a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency's history, with the potential to shape its future trajectory. The reduced supply of new bitcoins could ignite a renewed wave of investor interest, potentially driving prices upwards. However, it is crucial to acknowledge the influence of external factors, such as geopolitical tensions, which could introduce volatility to the market.

即将到来的比特币减半事件是加密货币历史上的关键时刻，有可能塑造其未来的轨迹。新比特币供应的减少可能会激发新一轮投资者兴趣，从而可能推动价格上涨。然而，至关重要的是要承认外部因素的影响，例如地缘政治紧张局势，这可能会给市场带来波动。