比特幣減半倒數計時：修正還是巔峰表現？

Bitcoin's Halving Countdown: Correction or Peak Performance?

比特幣減半倒數計時：修正還是巔峰表現？

As the 2024 Bitcoin halving looms, the digital asset has been struggling to maintain its position above $63,000. Analysts speculate that a further price decline is on the horizon, referring to it as a "correction."

隨著 2024 年比特幣減半的臨近，這種數位資產一直在努力維持在 63,000 美元以上的位置。分析師推測價格即將進一步下跌，並將其稱為「修正」。

Van de Poppe's Peaking Pre-Halving Theory

范德波普的減半前峰值理論

Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe suggests that the current consolidation is a manifestation of "peaking pre-halving," a phenomenon observed in previous cycles. He believes there is still an opportunity for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high, but acknowledges that it will require a breakout above $70,300.

加密貨幣分析師 Michael van de Poppe 表示，目前的盤整是「減半前見頂」的表現，這種現像在先前的周期中觀察到。他認為比特幣仍有機會創下歷史新高，但也承認這需要突破 70,300 美元。

Halving History and Its Impact on Price

減半歷史及其對價格的影響

Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event that reduces miner rewards by half every four years or after 210,000 blocks are mined. The upcoming halving is anticipated to occur in April 2024. Van de Poppe draws parallels between Bitcoin's current price action and the 2016–2017 cycle, suggesting that history could repeat itself and Bitcoin could experience a significant upward trend.

比特幣減半是一個預先編程的事件，每四年或在開採 210,000 個區塊後，礦工獎勵就會減少一半。即將到來的減半預計將於2024 年4 月發生。Van de Poppe 將比特幣當前的價格走勢與2016-2017 年周期進行了比較，表明歷史可能會重演，比特幣可能會經歷顯著的上漲趨勢。

Rekt Capital's Pre-Halving Correction Thesis

Rekt Capital的減半前修正論

Pseudonymous analyst Rekt Capital proposes that the pre-halving correction has already commenced. Historically, Bitcoin has undergone retracements 14–28 days prior to halving events. Rekt Capital compares the current price decline to the 20% pre-halving correction in 2020 and the 40% pullback before the 2016 halving.

化名分析師Rekt Capital表示，減半前的調整已經開始。從歷史上看，比特幣在減半事件前 14-28 天經歷過回檔。 Rekt Capital將目前價格下跌與2020年減半前20%的回檔以及2016年減半前40%的回檔進行了比較。

Timing and Duration of the Correction

修正的時間和持續時間

Rekt Capital estimates that the correction will persist for approximately 77 days, although the decline could be less severe than in previous cycles. This downward trend offers an opportune moment for investors to accumulate Bitcoin before the halving, which has historically been followed by a bullish rally.

Rekt Capital 估計，調整將持續約 77 天，儘管下降幅度可能沒有之前週期那麼嚴重。這種下降趨勢為投資者在減半之前累積比特幣提供了一個絕佳時機，歷史上減半之後會出現看漲反彈。

Current Price Action and Outlook

當前的價格走勢與前景

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $65,537, reflecting a 3.2% increase in the past 24 hours but a 2.6% decline over the past week. Despite the recent price fluctuations, Bitcoin has still experienced a 26% appreciation over the past 30 days.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 65,537 美元，過去 24 小時內上漲 3.2%，但過去一週下跌 2.6%。儘管近期價格波動較大，但比特幣在過去 30 天內仍升值了 26%。

Conclusion

結論

The upcoming Bitcoin halving presents both opportunities and challenges for investors. Analysts predict a potential correction in the lead-up to the event, but also anticipate a subsequent bullish trend. As Bitcoin's price trajectory remains uncertain, investors should proceed with caution and consider the historical patterns and expert insights to inform their investment decisions.

即將到來的比特幣減半對投資者來說既是機會也是挑戰。分析師預測該事件發生前可能會出現修正，但也預計隨後會出現看漲趨勢。由於比特幣的價格軌跡仍然不確定，投資者應謹慎行事，並考慮歷史模式和專家見解來為他們的投資決策提供資訊。