比特币减半倒计时：修正还是巅峰表现？

Bitcoin's Halving Countdown: Correction or Peak Performance?

比特币减半倒计时：修正还是巅峰表现？

As the 2024 Bitcoin halving looms, the digital asset has been struggling to maintain its position above $63,000. Analysts speculate that a further price decline is on the horizon, referring to it as a "correction."

随着 2024 年比特币减半的临近，这种数字资产一直在努力维持在 63,000 美元以上的位置。分析师推测价格即将进一步下跌，并将其称为“修正”。

Van de Poppe's Peaking Pre-Halving Theory

范德波普的减半前峰值理论

Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe suggests that the current consolidation is a manifestation of "peaking pre-halving," a phenomenon observed in previous cycles. He believes there is still an opportunity for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high, but acknowledges that it will require a breakout above $70,300.

加密货币分析师 Michael van de Poppe 表示，当前的盘整是“减半前见顶”的表现，这种现象在之前的周期中观察到。他认为比特币仍有机会创下历史新高，但也承认这需要突破 70,300 美元。

Halving History and Its Impact on Price

减半历史及其对价格的影响

Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event that reduces miner rewards by half every four years or after 210,000 blocks are mined. The upcoming halving is anticipated to occur in April 2024. Van de Poppe draws parallels between Bitcoin's current price action and the 2016–2017 cycle, suggesting that history could repeat itself and Bitcoin could experience a significant upward trend.

比特币减半是一个预先编程的事件，每四年或在开采 210,000 个区块后，矿工奖励就会减少一半。即将到来的减半预计将于 2024 年 4 月发生。Van de Poppe 将比特币当前的价格走势与 2016-2017 年周期进行了比较，表明历史可能会重演，比特币可能会经历显着的上涨趋势。

Rekt Capital's Pre-Halving Correction Thesis

Rekt Capital的减半前修正论

Pseudonymous analyst Rekt Capital proposes that the pre-halving correction has already commenced. Historically, Bitcoin has undergone retracements 14–28 days prior to halving events. Rekt Capital compares the current price decline to the 20% pre-halving correction in 2020 and the 40% pullback before the 2016 halving.

化名分析师Rekt Capital表示，减半前的调整已经开始。从历史上看，比特币在减半事件前 14-28 天经历过回调。 Rekt Capital将当前价格下跌与2020年减半前20%的回调以及2016年减半前40%的回调进行了比较。

Timing and Duration of the Correction

纠正的时间和持续时间

Rekt Capital estimates that the correction will persist for approximately 77 days, although the decline could be less severe than in previous cycles. This downward trend offers an opportune moment for investors to accumulate Bitcoin before the halving, which has historically been followed by a bullish rally.

Rekt Capital 估计，调整将持续约 77 天，尽管下降幅度可能没有之前周期那么严重。这种下降趋势为投资者在减半之前积累比特币提供了一个绝佳时机，历史上减半之后会出现看涨反弹。

Current Price Action and Outlook

当前的价格走势和前景

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $65,537, reflecting a 3.2% increase in the past 24 hours but a 2.6% decline over the past week. Despite the recent price fluctuations, Bitcoin has still experienced a 26% appreciation over the past 30 days.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 65,537 美元，过去 24 小时内上涨 3.2%，但过去一周下跌 2.6%。尽管近期价格波动较大，但比特币在过去 30 天内仍然升值了 26%。

Conclusion

结论

The upcoming Bitcoin halving presents both opportunities and challenges for investors. Analysts predict a potential correction in the lead-up to the event, but also anticipate a subsequent bullish trend. As Bitcoin's price trajectory remains uncertain, investors should proceed with caution and consider the historical patterns and expert insights to inform their investment decisions.

即将到来的比特币减半对投资者来说既是机遇也是挑战。分析师预测该事件发生前可能会出现修正，但也预计随后会出现看涨趋势。由于比特币的价格轨迹仍然不确定，投资者应谨慎行事，并考虑历史模式和专家见解来为他们的投资决策提供信息。