比特幣減半將近，引發市場波動，專家預測

接近比特幣第四次減半，市場動態發生了顯著變化，反映了減半事件之前價格下跌的歷史模式。隨著最後期限的臨近，行業專家提出了截然不同的觀點，一些專家預測短期拋售壓力，而另一些專家則預計供應減少和需求增加將推動長期看漲。

Bitcoin Halving Event Approaches, Triggering Market Volatility and Expert Speculation

比特幣減半事件將近，引發市場波動和專家猜測

As the highly anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving event draws near, approximately three days hence, the cryptocurrency market has experienced significant turbulence, potentially shaping the digital asset's price trajectory.

隨著備受期待的第四次比特幣減半事件的臨近，大約三天后，加密貨幣市場經歷了巨大的動盪，可能會影響數位資產的價格軌跡。

Deciphering Bitcoin's Halving Patterns: Historical Precedents

破解比特幣減半模式：歷史先例

Despite a recent market downturn, a CryptoQuant analyst has identified a recurring pattern in Bitcoin's price behavior preceding each halving cycle: a substantial price decline.

儘管最近市場低迷，CryptoQuant 分析師還是發現了每個減半週期之前比特幣價格行為的反覆模式：價格大幅下跌。

During the second halving, Bitcoin underwent a 40.36% price reduction, reaching a low of $465 before reaching an all-time high of $19,600. Similarly, prior to the third halving, the cryptocurrency experienced a 20.35% decline, dipping to $8,078 before ultimately peaking at $69,000.

在第二次減半期間，比特幣價格下跌了 40.36%，跌至 465 美元的低點，然後達到 19,600 美元的歷史高點。同樣，在第三次減半之前，加密貨幣經歷了 20.35% 的下跌，跌至 8,078 美元，最終達到 69,000 美元的峰值。

In the current halving cycle, Bitcoin has already seen a price decrease of 16.65%, aligning with the historical trend.

在目前的減半週期中，比特幣價格已下跌16.65%，符合歷史趨勢。

Pre-Halving Price Fluctuations

減半前價格波動

"It's crucial to note that before each halving cycle, there is typically a price collapse, a pattern we've observed repeatedly in the past." - @OnchainTarek

“值得注意的是，在每個減半週期之前，通常都會出現價格崩潰，這是我們過去反​​覆觀察到的模式。” - @OnchainTarek

Despite the recent price decline, CryptoQuant suggests that such a reduction is typical in the lead-up to halvings, indicating that it may not necessarily be a cause for alarm.

儘管最近價格下跌，CryptoQuant 表示，這種下跌在減半之前是很常見的，這表明這不一定是恐慌的原因。

"There's no need for panic, as this scenario repeats consistently in each cycle, albeit with varying percentages. The correct strategy now is to enter the market gradually at previously established strategic points. The path to the current cycle's peak remains open, and we're still at the beginning of this journey." - CryptoQuant analyst

「沒有必要恐慌，因為這種情況在每個週期中都會重複出現，儘管百分比有所不同。現在正確的策略是在先前確定的戰略點上逐步進入市場。通往當前週期頂峰的道路仍然開放，我們”我們仍處於這段旅程的開始。” - CryptoQuant 分析師

Bitcoin's recent price action aligns with the observations made in the CryptoQuant report. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has witnessed a downward trend, with a decrease of over 10% in the last seven days and a further decline of 3.1% in the past 24 hours. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,098, indicating ongoing market volatility.

比特幣最近的價格走勢與 CryptoQuant 報告中的觀察結果一致。過去一周，加密貨幣呈現下跌趨勢，近7天跌幅超過10%，近24小時進一步跌幅3.1%。截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 63,098 美元，顯示市場持續波動。

Market Experts Weigh In: Bitcoin's Future Trajectory

市場專家發表評論：比特幣的未來軌跡

Industry experts offer diverse perspectives on Bitcoin's future trajectory in light of the impending halving:

鑑於即將到來的減半，產業專家對比特幣的未來軌跡提出了不同的觀點：

• Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com: Acknowledges the potential for short-term selling pressure leading up to the halving, citing the common trading strategy of "buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news." However, he remains optimistic about the long-term impact of the halving, emphasizing its ability to "bolster" Bitcoin's price trajectory over time.
• Samson Mow, head of Jan3, a Bitcoin adoption-focused company: Dismisses the current price downturn as an "overreaction," predicting a bullish resurgence post-halving. He cites the halving as a trigger for a significant "supply shock" in the Bitcoin market due to the absorption of BTC by spot Bitcoin ETFs and recent regulatory approvals for Bitcoin-related financial products in Hong Kong.

Conclusion

Crypto.com 執行長 Kris Marszalek：承認減半前可能存在短期拋售壓力，並引用了「根據謠言買入，根據訊息賣出」的常見交易策略。不過，他對減半的長期影響仍然持樂觀態度，強調其隨著時間的推移「支撐」比特幣價格軌蹟的能力。視為“反應過度”，預測減半後看漲會復甦。他指出，由於現貨比特幣 ETF 吸收了 BTC，以及香港最近對比特幣相關金融產品的監管批准，減半引發了比特幣市場的重大「供應衝擊」。

As the Bitcoin halving event approaches, market dynamics have become increasingly volatile, influenced by historical price patterns and expert speculation. While short-term price fluctuations are to be expected, long-term projections remain optimistic, with many analysts anticipating a positive impact on Bitcoin's price trajectory. However, it is essential for investors to conduct thorough research and proceed with caution in the face of market uncertainty.

隨著比特幣減半事件的臨近，受歷史價格模式和專家猜測的影響，市場動態變得越來越不穩定。雖然短期價格波動是可以預料的，但長期預測仍然樂觀，許多分析師預計這將對比特幣的價格軌跡產生積極影響。但面對市場的不確定性，投資人仍需進行充分研究並謹慎行事。