比特币减半临近，引发市场波动，专家预测

临近比特币第四次减半，市场动态发生了显着变化，反映了减半事件之前价格下跌的历史模式。随着最后期限的临近，行业专家提出了截然不同的观点，一些专家预测短期抛售压力，而另一些专家则预计供应减少和需求增加将推动长期看涨。

Bitcoin Halving Event Approaches, Triggering Market Volatility and Expert Speculation

比特币减半事件临近，引发市场波动和专家猜测

As the highly anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving event draws near, approximately three days hence, the cryptocurrency market has experienced significant turbulence, potentially shaping the digital asset's price trajectory.

随着备受期待的第四次比特币减半事件的临近，大约三天后，加密货币市场经历了巨大的动荡，可能会影响数字资产的价格轨迹。

Deciphering Bitcoin's Halving Patterns: Historical Precedents

破译比特币减半模式：历史先例

Despite a recent market downturn, a CryptoQuant analyst has identified a recurring pattern in Bitcoin's price behavior preceding each halving cycle: a substantial price decline.

尽管最近市场低迷，CryptoQuant 分析师还是发现了每个减半周期之前比特币价格行为的反复模式：价格大幅下跌。

During the second halving, Bitcoin underwent a 40.36% price reduction, reaching a low of $465 before reaching an all-time high of $19,600. Similarly, prior to the third halving, the cryptocurrency experienced a 20.35% decline, dipping to $8,078 before ultimately peaking at $69,000.

在第二次减半期间，比特币价格下跌了 40.36%，跌至 465 美元的低点，然后达到 19,600 美元的历史高点。同样，在第三次减半之前，加密货币经历了 20.35% 的下跌，跌至 8,078 美元，最终达到 69,000 美元的峰值。

In the current halving cycle, Bitcoin has already seen a price decrease of 16.65%, aligning with the historical trend.

在当前的减半周期中，比特币价格已下跌16.65%，符合历史趋势。

Pre-Halving Price Fluctuations

减半前价格波动

"It's crucial to note that before each halving cycle, there is typically a price collapse, a pattern we've observed repeatedly in the past." - @OnchainTarek

“值得注意的是，在每个减半周期之前，通常都会出现价格崩溃，这是我们过去反复观察到的模式。” - @OnchainTarek

Despite the recent price decline, CryptoQuant suggests that such a reduction is typical in the lead-up to halvings, indicating that it may not necessarily be a cause for alarm.

尽管最近价格下跌，CryptoQuant 表示，这种下跌在减半之前是很常见的，这表明这不一定是引起恐慌的原因。

"There's no need for panic, as this scenario repeats consistently in each cycle, albeit with varying percentages. The correct strategy now is to enter the market gradually at previously established strategic points. The path to the current cycle's peak remains open, and we're still at the beginning of this journey." - CryptoQuant analyst

“没有必要恐慌，因为这种情况在每个周期中都会重复出现，尽管百分比有所不同。现在正确的策略是在先前确定的战略点上逐步进入市场。通向当前周期顶峰的道路仍然开放，我们”我们仍处于这段旅程的开始。” - CryptoQuant 分析师

Bitcoin's recent price action aligns with the observations made in the CryptoQuant report. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has witnessed a downward trend, with a decrease of over 10% in the last seven days and a further decline of 3.1% in the past 24 hours. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,098, indicating ongoing market volatility.

比特币最近的价格走势与 CryptoQuant 报告中的观察结果一致。过去一周，加密货币呈现下跌趋势，近7天跌幅超过10%，近24小时进一步跌幅3.1%。截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 63,098 美元，表明市场持续波动。

Market Experts Weigh In: Bitcoin's Future Trajectory

市场专家发表评论：比特币的未来轨迹

Industry experts offer diverse perspectives on Bitcoin's future trajectory in light of the impending halving:

鉴于即将到来的减半，行业专家对比特币的未来轨迹提出了不同的观点：

• Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com: Acknowledges the potential for short-term selling pressure leading up to the halving, citing the common trading strategy of "buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news." However, he remains optimistic about the long-term impact of the halving, emphasizing its ability to "bolster" Bitcoin's price trajectory over time.
• Samson Mow, head of Jan3, a Bitcoin adoption-focused company: Dismisses the current price downturn as an "overreaction," predicting a bullish resurgence post-halving. He cites the halving as a trigger for a significant "supply shock" in the Bitcoin market due to the absorption of BTC by spot Bitcoin ETFs and recent regulatory approvals for Bitcoin-related financial products in Hong Kong.

Conclusion

Crypto.com 首席执行官 Kris Marszalek：承认减半前可能存在短期抛售压力，并引用了“根据谣言买入，根据消息卖出”的常见交易策略。不过，他对减半的长期影响仍然持乐观态度，强调其随着时间的推移“支撑”比特币价格轨迹的能力。专注于比特币采用的公司 Jan3 的负责人 Samson Mow：将当前的价格低迷视为“反应过度”，预测减半后看涨会复苏。他指出，由于现货比特币 ETF 吸收了 BTC，以及香港最近对比特币相关金融产品的监管批准，减半引发了比特币市场的重大“供应冲击”。 结论

As the Bitcoin halving event approaches, market dynamics have become increasingly volatile, influenced by historical price patterns and expert speculation. While short-term price fluctuations are to be expected, long-term projections remain optimistic, with many analysts anticipating a positive impact on Bitcoin's price trajectory. However, it is essential for investors to conduct thorough research and proceed with caution in the face of market uncertainty.

随着比特币减半事件的临近，受历史价格模式和专家猜测的影响，市场动态变得越来越不稳定。虽然短期价格波动是可以预料的，但长期预测仍然乐观，许多分析师预计这将对比特币的价格轨迹产生积极影响。但面对市场的不确定性，投资者仍需进行充分研究并谨慎行事。