比特幣融資利率下降暗示市場猶豫和潛在的價格調整

比特幣和更廣泛的加密市場正在經歷急劇下跌，比特幣今天觸及 94,550 美元的低點。在此之前，比特幣本月早些時候短暫回到了六位數的價格範圍

Bitcoin’s price dropped to lows of $94,550 on the 14th of January, following a brief return to the six-figure price range earlier this month. This sharp decline prompted analysts to explore on-chain indicators to identify potential triggers for the bearish turn.

繼本月稍早短暫回到六位數價格區間後，比特幣價格於 1 月 14 日跌至 94,550 美元的低點。這種急劇下跌促使分析師探索鏈上指標，以確定熊市轉向的潛在觸發因素​​。

One critical factor highlighted by Shayan, a verified author at the analytics platform CryptoQuant, is the decline in Bitcoin funding rates within the derivatives market.

分析平台 CryptoQuant 的認證作者 Shayan 強調的關鍵因素是衍生性商品市場中比特幣融資利率的下降。

Funding rates play a crucial role in sustaining price trends—a strong rally is typically accompanied by a rise in funding rates, indicating robust demand. However, Shayan noted that the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price lacked significant funding rate support in the early stages, with rates only seeing a sharp rise midway through the rally. This delay suggests weaker-than-expected market commitment, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to price corrections.

融資利率在維持價格趨勢方面發揮著至關重要的作用——強勁的上漲通常伴隨著融資利率的上升，顯示需求強勁。不過，Shayan 指出，近期比特幣價格的飆昇在早期階段缺乏顯著的資金利率支撐，利率只是在上漲的中途才大幅上漲。這種延遲表明市場承諾弱於預期，使比特幣容易受到價格調整的影響。

To illustrate this situation, data from Coinglass shows that the Bitcoin Open Interest Weighted Funding Rate stood at 0.0906% as of December 5, 2024. At that time, Bitcoin was trading at $102K.

為了說明這種情況，Coinglass 的數據顯示，截至 2024 年 12 月 5 日，比特幣未平倉合約加權融資利率為 0.0906%。

However, the rate decreased in the subsequent days even as the price of Bitcoin continued to rise. Specifically, it dropped sharply as Bitcoin encountered rejection at $108,300 on December 17, 2024.

然而，儘管比特幣的價格繼續上漲，但利率在隨後的幾天裡有所下降。具體來說，比特幣在 2024 年 12 月 17 日在 108,300 美元遭遇拒絕後大幅下跌。

This decline shows a reduction in traders’ commitment, with many losing confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its upward trajectory.

這種下跌表明交易者的承諾減少，許多人對比特幣維持其上漲軌蹟的能力失去了信心。

In his commentary, Shayan confirmed that the observed decline in funding rates signals not only capital outflows from the derivatives market but also insufficient support to sustain the bullish momentum.

沙揚在評論中證實，觀察到的融資利率下降不僅表明資本從衍生性商品市場流出，而且顯示支撐看漲勢頭的支撐不足。

Essentially, leveraged traders showed minimal interest in maintaining their positions as Bitcoin traded in the six-figure range, fearing a major correction. This translated into broader hesitation among market participants, further weighing on Bitcoin’s price.

從本質上講，當比特幣交易價格在六位數範圍內時，槓桿交易者對維持部位的興趣微乎其微，因為他們擔心會出現重大調整。這導致市場參與者更加猶豫，進一步打壓比特幣的價格。

Yesterday, when Bitcoin was trading above $102K, the funding rate dipped to 0.0044% from 0.0113% the previous day.

昨天，當比特幣交易價格超過 10.2 萬美元時，資金費率從前一天的 0.0113% 降至 0.0044%。

Bitcoin Risks Deeper Correction

比特幣面臨進一步修正的風險

The current trend now points to a potential test of lower price levels. Shayan argued that if Bitcoin fails to maintain support above the $90K level, it could face increased selling pressure.

目前的趨勢顯示可能會考驗較低的價格水平。 Shayan 認為，如果比特幣未能維持在 9 萬美元以上的支撐位，它可能會面臨更大的拋售壓力。

Furthermore, he stated that traders may lose even more confidence. He projected deeper corrections and the possibility of revisiting lower Fibonacci levels or psychological price thresholds.

此外，他表示交易員可能會失去更多信心。他預計將出現更深層的調整，並有可能重新審視較低的斐波那契水平或心理價格閾值。

However, if funding rates recover and strong buying activity returns to the market, Bitcoin could stabilize and continue its ascent, resuming its bullish path.

然而，如果融資利率回升並且市場上出現強勁的購買活動，比特幣可能會穩定並繼續上漲，恢復看漲路徑。

At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $95,060, indicating the threat of further declines.

截至發稿時，比特幣交易價格為 95,060 美元，表明存在進一步下跌的威脅。