比特币融资利率下降暗示市场犹豫和潜在的价格调整

比特币和更广泛的加密市场正在经历急剧下跌，比特币今天触及 94,550 美元的低点。在此之前，比特币本月早些时候短暂回到了六位数的价格范围

Bitcoin’s price dropped to lows of $94,550 on the 14th of January, following a brief return to the six-figure price range earlier this month. This sharp decline prompted analysts to explore on-chain indicators to identify potential triggers for the bearish turn.

继本月早些时候短暂回到六位数价格区间后，比特币价格于 1 月 14 日跌至 94,550 美元的低点。这种急剧下跌促使分析师探索链上指标，以确定熊市转向的潜在触发因素。

One critical factor highlighted by Shayan, a verified author at the analytics platform CryptoQuant, is the decline in Bitcoin funding rates within the derivatives market.

分析平台 CryptoQuant 的认证作者 Shayan 强调的一个关键因素是衍生品市场中比特币融资利率的下降。

Funding rates play a crucial role in sustaining price trends—a strong rally is typically accompanied by a rise in funding rates, indicating robust demand. However, Shayan noted that the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price lacked significant funding rate support in the early stages, with rates only seeing a sharp rise midway through the rally. This delay suggests weaker-than-expected market commitment, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to price corrections.

融资利率在维持价格趋势方面发挥着至关重要的作用——强劲的上涨通常伴随着融资利率的上升，表明需求强劲。不过，Shayan 指出，近期比特币价格的飙升在早期阶段缺乏显着的资金利率支撑，利率只是在上涨的中途才出现大幅上涨。这种延迟表明市场承诺弱于预期，使比特币容易受到价格调整的影响。

To illustrate this situation, data from Coinglass shows that the Bitcoin Open Interest Weighted Funding Rate stood at 0.0906% as of December 5, 2024. At that time, Bitcoin was trading at $102K.

为了说明这一情况，Coinglass 的数据显示，截至 2024 年 12 月 5 日，比特币未平仓合约加权融资利率为 0.0906%。当时，比特币的交易价格为 10.2 万美元。

However, the rate decreased in the subsequent days even as the price of Bitcoin continued to rise. Specifically, it dropped sharply as Bitcoin encountered rejection at $108,300 on December 17, 2024.

然而，尽管比特币的价格继续上涨，但利率在随后的几天里有所下降。具体来说，比特币在 2024 年 12 月 17 日在 108,300 美元遭遇拒绝后大幅下跌。

This decline shows a reduction in traders’ commitment, with many losing confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its upward trajectory.

这种下跌表明交易者的承诺减少，许多人对比特币维持其上涨轨迹的能力失去了信心。

In his commentary, Shayan confirmed that the observed decline in funding rates signals not only capital outflows from the derivatives market but also insufficient support to sustain the bullish momentum.

沙扬在评论中证实，观察到的融资利率下降不仅表明资本从衍生品市场流出，而且表明支撑看涨势头的支撑不足。

Essentially, leveraged traders showed minimal interest in maintaining their positions as Bitcoin traded in the six-figure range, fearing a major correction. This translated into broader hesitation among market participants, further weighing on Bitcoin’s price.

从本质上讲，当比特币交易价格在六位数范围内时，杠杆交易者对维持头寸的兴趣微乎其微，因为他们担心会出现重大调整。这导致市场参与者更加犹豫，进一步打压比特币的价格。

Yesterday, when Bitcoin was trading above $102K, the funding rate dipped to 0.0044% from 0.0113% the previous day.

昨天，当比特币交易价格超过 10.2 万美元时，资金费率从前一天的 0.0113% 降至 0.0044%。

Bitcoin Risks Deeper Correction

比特币面临进一步修正的风险

The current trend now points to a potential test of lower price levels. Shayan argued that if Bitcoin fails to maintain support above the $90K level, it could face increased selling pressure.

目前的趋势表明可能会考验较低的价格水平。 Shayan 认为，如果比特币未能维持在 9 万美元以上的支撑位，它可能会面临更大的抛售压力。

Furthermore, he stated that traders may lose even more confidence. He projected deeper corrections and the possibility of revisiting lower Fibonacci levels or psychological price thresholds.

此外，他表示交易员可能会失去更多信心。他预计将出现更深层次的调整，并有可能重新审视较低的斐波那契水平或心理价格阈值。

However, if funding rates recover and strong buying activity returns to the market, Bitcoin could stabilize and continue its ascent, resuming its bullish path.

然而，如果融资利率回升并且市场上出现强劲的购买活动，比特币可能会企稳并继续上涨，恢复看涨路径。

At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $95,060, indicating the threat of further declines.

截至发稿时，比特币交易价格为 95,060 美元，表明存在进一步下跌的威胁。