比特幣在負資金利率減半前標誌著看跌情緒

比特幣期貨和衍生性商品的負融資利率顯示近期減半之前的看跌情緒。 4 月 18 日，融資利率今年首次轉為負值，顯示由於看跌情緒加劇，空頭部位正在向多頭部位支付費用。然而，減半後，資金費率有所回升，顯示市場參與者的看漲情緒重新抬頭。

Bitcoin Experiences Negative Funding Rate Prior to Halving, Signaling Bearish Sentiment

比特幣在減半前經歷負資金利率，顯示看跌情緒

Bitcoin's funding rate, a metric indicative of market sentiment, recently turned negative for the first time this year, just ahead of the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event on April 20. This negative rate implies that short positions are compensating long positions for their exposure, indicating increased bearish sentiment among traders.

比特幣的融資利率是反映市場情緒的指標，在 4 月20 日備受期待的比特幣減半事件之前，最近今年首次轉為負值。風險，這表示交易者的看跌情緒加劇。

Data Confirms Negative Funding Rate

數據證實負資金利率

Market data provider Kaiko, along with Coinalyze, a crypto derivatives and futures market platform, confirmed the negative funding rate. On April 18, Bitcoin's aggregated funding rate across major derivatives markets dipped to -0.0030, marking the first negative reading since October 19, 2023.

市場數據提供商 Kaiko 以及加密貨幣衍生性商品和期貨市場平台 Coinalyze 確認了負融資利率。 4 月 18 日，比特幣在主要衍生性商品市場的總融資利率降至-0.0030，這是自 2023 年 10 月 19 日以來的首次負值。

Historical Perspective

歷史的角度

The last time Bitcoin's funding rate fell into negative territory was in October 2023, when it plummeted to -0.0047. Since then, it had remained positive, reaching a peak of 0.0669 on March 31, 2024. However, it subsequently declined, ultimately crossing into negative territory on April 18.

比特幣融資利率上一次跌入負值是在 2023 年 10 月，當時暴跌至-0.0047。此後，它一直保持正值，並於2024年3月31日達到0.0669的峰值。

Market Recovery Post-Halving

減半後市場復甦

Despite the negative funding rate prior to the halving, Bitcoin's funding rate rebounded shortly after the event. As of April 24, the latest value stood at 0.0051. Aggregated Open Interest (OI), a measure of the total number of outstanding contracts, has also recovered since dropping to $15.55 billion on April 17. OI has now risen to $17.18 billion.

儘管減半前的資金費率為負，但比特幣的資金費率在減半後不久就出現了反彈。截至4月24日，最新值為0.0051。綜合未平倉合約 (OI)（衡量未平倉合約總數的指標）自 4 月 17 日跌至 155.5 億美元以來也有所回升。

Bullish Sentiment Emerges

看漲情緒出現

The BTC Long/Short Ratio, which compares the number of long positions to short positions, has also increased to 1.46 over the past 24 hours. This suggests that market participants are becoming more bullish on Bitcoin's price prospects.

BTC 多頭/空頭比率（多頭部位與空頭部位數量的比較）在過去 24 小時內也增加至 1.46。這表明市場參與者對比特幣的價格前景變得更加看好。

Halving Impact

影響減半

Kaiko's report indicates that the Bitcoin halving has had a positive impact on Bitcoin's price so far. At the time of the report, BTC was up 3% since the halving, a more substantial increase than observed after previous halving events. Despite a subsequent decline, BTC remains up 2.1% since the halving.

Kaiko的報告表明，迄今為止，比特幣減半對比特幣的價格產生了積極影響。截至報告發佈時，BTC 自減半以來已上漲 3%，增幅比先前減半事件後觀察到的漲幅更大。儘管隨後出現下跌，但自減半以來 BTC 仍上漲 2.1%。

Current Market Conditions

目前的市場狀況

As of press time, Bitcoin trades at $65,218, down 8.65% this month. If Bitcoin closes April with a decline, it would mark its first red monthly candlestick this year. Despite the short-term downward trend, investors remain optimistic, citing the declining funding rate as a positive sign and pointing to the bullish Coinbase Premium Index.

截至發稿，比特幣交易價格為 65,218 美元，本月下跌 8.65%。如果比特幣在四月收盤時下跌，這將標誌著今年的第一個紅色月度燭台。儘管有短期下降趨勢，但投資人仍保持樂觀，認為融資利率下降是一個正面訊號，並指出看漲的 Coinbase 溢價指數。

Conclusion

結論

Bitcoin's negative funding rate prior to the halving suggests increased bearish sentiment among traders. However, the rebound in funding rate and Aggregated Open Interest, coupled with the emergence of bullish sentiment, indicates a potential shift in market sentiment post-halving. While Bitcoin's price has fluctuated in the short term, its overall performance remains positive compared to previous halving events. Investors are closely monitoring market developments and remain cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin's future prospects.

比特幣減半前的負資金利率顯示交易者的看跌情緒增加。然而，資金費率和總持倉量的反彈，加上看漲情緒的出現，顯示減半後市場情緒可能會轉變。雖然比特幣價格短期內有所波動，但與先前的減半事件相比，其整體表現仍然樂觀。投資者正在密切關注市場發展，並對比特幣的未來前景保持謹慎樂觀。