比特币在负资金利率减半前标志着看跌情绪

比特币期货和衍生品的负融资利率表明近期减半之前的看跌情绪。 4 月 18 日，融资利率今年首次转为负值，表明由于看跌情绪加剧，空头头寸正在向多头头寸支付费用。然而，减半后，资金费率有所回升，表明市场参与者的看涨情绪重新抬头。

Bitcoin Experiences Negative Funding Rate Prior to Halving, Signaling Bearish Sentiment

比特币在减半前经历负资金利率，表明看跌情绪

Bitcoin's funding rate, a metric indicative of market sentiment, recently turned negative for the first time this year, just ahead of the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event on April 20. This negative rate implies that short positions are compensating long positions for their exposure, indicating increased bearish sentiment among traders.

比特币的融资利率是反映市场情绪的指标，在​​ 4 月 20 日备受期待的比特币减半事件之前，最近今年首次转为负值。这种负利率意味着空头头寸正在补偿多头头寸的风险，这表明交易者的看跌情绪加剧。

Data Confirms Negative Funding Rate

数据证实负资金利率

Market data provider Kaiko, along with Coinalyze, a crypto derivatives and futures market platform, confirmed the negative funding rate. On April 18, Bitcoin's aggregated funding rate across major derivatives markets dipped to -0.0030, marking the first negative reading since October 19, 2023.

市场数据提供商 Kaiko 以及加密货币衍生品和期货市场平台 Coinalyze 确认了负融资利率。 4 月 18 日，比特币在主要衍生品市场的总融资利率降至-0.0030，这是自 2023 年 10 月 19 日以来的首次负值。

Historical Perspective

历史的角度

The last time Bitcoin's funding rate fell into negative territory was in October 2023, when it plummeted to -0.0047. Since then, it had remained positive, reaching a peak of 0.0669 on March 31, 2024. However, it subsequently declined, ultimately crossing into negative territory on April 18.

比特币融资利率上一次跌入负值是在 2023 年 10 月，当时暴跌至-0.0047。此后，它一直保持正值，并于2024年3月31日达到0.0669的峰值。然而，随后下跌，最终于4月18日进入负值区域。

Market Recovery Post-Halving

减半后市场复苏

Despite the negative funding rate prior to the halving, Bitcoin's funding rate rebounded shortly after the event. As of April 24, the latest value stood at 0.0051. Aggregated Open Interest (OI), a measure of the total number of outstanding contracts, has also recovered since dropping to $15.55 billion on April 17. OI has now risen to $17.18 billion.

尽管减半前的资金费率为负，但比特币的资金费率在减半后不久就出现了反弹。截至4月24日，最新值为0.0051。综合未平仓合约 (OI)（衡量未平仓合约总数的指标）自 4 月 17 日跌至 155.5 亿美元以来也有所回升。OI 目前已升至 171.8 亿美元。

Bullish Sentiment Emerges

看涨情绪出现

The BTC Long/Short Ratio, which compares the number of long positions to short positions, has also increased to 1.46 over the past 24 hours. This suggests that market participants are becoming more bullish on Bitcoin's price prospects.

BTC 多头/空头比率（多头头寸与空头头寸数量的比较）在过去 24 小时内也增加至 1.46。这表明市场参与者对比特币的价格前景变得更加看好。

Halving Impact

影响减半

Kaiko's report indicates that the Bitcoin halving has had a positive impact on Bitcoin's price so far. At the time of the report, BTC was up 3% since the halving, a more substantial increase than observed after previous halving events. Despite a subsequent decline, BTC remains up 2.1% since the halving.

Kaiko的报告表明，迄今为止，比特币减半对比特币的价格产生了积极影响。截至报告发布时，BTC 自减半以来已上涨 3%，增幅比之前减半事件后观察到的涨幅更大。尽管随后出现下跌，但自减半以来 BTC 仍上涨 2.1%。

Current Market Conditions

目前的市场状况

As of press time, Bitcoin trades at $65,218, down 8.65% this month. If Bitcoin closes April with a decline, it would mark its first red monthly candlestick this year. Despite the short-term downward trend, investors remain optimistic, citing the declining funding rate as a positive sign and pointing to the bullish Coinbase Premium Index.

截至发稿，比特币交易价格为 65,218 美元，本月下跌 8.65%。如果比特币在四月收盘时下跌，这将标志着今年的第一个红色月度烛台。尽管存在短期下降趋势，但投资者仍保持乐观，认为融资利率下降是一个积极信号，并指出看涨的 Coinbase 溢价指数。

Conclusion

结论

Bitcoin's negative funding rate prior to the halving suggests increased bearish sentiment among traders. However, the rebound in funding rate and Aggregated Open Interest, coupled with the emergence of bullish sentiment, indicates a potential shift in market sentiment post-halving. While Bitcoin's price has fluctuated in the short term, its overall performance remains positive compared to previous halving events. Investors are closely monitoring market developments and remain cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin's future prospects.

比特币减半前的负资金利率表明交易者的看跌情绪有所增加。然而，资金费率和总持仓量的反弹，加上看涨情绪的出现，表明减半后市场情绪可能发生转变。虽然比特币价格短期内有所波动，但与之前的减半事件相比，其整体表现仍然乐观。投资者正在密切关注市场发展，并对比特币的未来前景保持谨慎乐观。