比特幣 ETF 跑贏 TradFi 債券 ETF，預示著潛在的市場轉變

減半後，比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）今年的表現已超過傳統金融（TradFi）債券ETF。儘管比特幣 ETF 的推出最初令人興奮，但目前正處於盤整階段，比特幣交易價格約為 62,100 美元。然而，這些基金在美國的成功以及最近在香港的批准表明了進一步的成長潛力。

Bitcoin ETFs Outperform TradFi Bond ETFs, Signaling Potential Market Shifts

比特幣 ETF 跑贏 TradFi 債券 ETF，預示著潛在的市場轉變

Following the highly anticipated halving event, Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have endured market fluctuations, yet they have significantly outperformed traditional finance (TradFi) bond ETFs this year.

在備受期待的減半事件之後，比特幣（BTC）交易所交易基金（ETF）經歷了市場波動，但今年的表現卻明顯優於傳統金融（TradFi）債券ETF。

TradFi Bond ETF Market Struggles

TradFi 債券 ETF 市場困境

Data from Hodl15Capital reveals a sobering picture for the TradFi bond ETF market. Five of the largest Vanguard bond funds have experienced a combined loss of $6.3 billion year-to-date (YTD), with total assets dwindling to $267 billion. This stark contrast with the resilience of Bitcoin ETFs raises questions about the future trajectory of these investment vehicles.

Hodl15Capital 的數據揭示了 TradFi 債券 ETF 市場的嚴峻情況。迄今為止，Vanguard 旗下五隻最大的債券基金累計虧損 63 億美元，總資產縮減至 2,670 億美元。這與比特幣 ETF 的彈性形成鮮明對比，引發了人們對這些投資工具未來軌跡的質疑。

Bitcoin ETFs as a Driver for BTC

比特幣 ETF 作為 BTC 的驅動力

Industry experts believe that Bitcoin ETFs could play a pivotal role in driving up the price of BTC in the lead-up to the next halving, scheduled for May 2024. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2023 sparked a buying frenzy, with funds accumulating over 500,000 bitcoins.

行業專家認為，在計劃於2024 年5 月進行的下一次減半之前，比特幣ETF 可能會在推高BTC 價格方面發揮關鍵作用。不斷累積超過 50 萬個比特幣。

Initial Rush Cools, Consolidation Phase Emerges

最初的熱潮降溫，整合階段出現

Despite the initial excitement, the Bitcoin ETF market is now consolidating, with traders monitoring the price action closely. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $62,100, down 15% from its March peak of $73,000.

儘管最初令人興奮，但比特幣 ETF 市場現在正在整合，交易員密切關注價格趨勢。比特幣目前徘徊在 62,100 美元左右，較 3 月高峰 73,000 美元下跌 15%。

Milestone Achievements and Global Expansion

里程碑式的成就與全球擴張

Despite the current lull in investor interest, Bitcoin ETFs have achieved significant milestones in a short period. They have amassed over $54 billion in assets in just three months, and BlackRock's IBIT ETF has experienced a record-breaking 71 days of inflows.

儘管目前投資者興趣低迷，但比特幣 ETF 在短時間內取得了重大里程碑。他們在短短三個月內就累積了超過 540 億美元的資產，貝萊德的 IBIT ETF 經歷了創紀錄的 71 天資金流入。

The success of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has paved the way for their expansion into international markets. Hong Kong recently approved three spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, a move that could trigger competitive fee reductions similar to those seen in the U.S. market.

比特幣 ETF 在美國的成功為其進軍國際市場鋪平了道路。香港最近批准了三隻現貨比特幣和以太幣 ETF，此舉可能會引發類似美國市場的競爭性費用降低。

Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals for Bitcoin

技術分析：比特幣的混合訊號

As April draws to a close, Bitcoin is poised to experience its worst month of 2024. The 200-day moving average (MA) remains above the 20-day MA, signaling a potential long-term downtrend. However, the price action is testing the 20-day MA, and a crossing above it could trigger a bullish "golden cross" pattern.

隨著 4 月接近尾聲，比特幣有望經歷 2024 年最糟糕的一個月。然而，價格走勢正在測試 20 日均線，突破該均線可能會觸發看漲的「金叉」模式。

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) presents mixed signals, with peaks reaching 80, indicating that BTC could be oversold. Traders should monitor this indicator closely to assess whether the market is overextended to the upside.

相對強度指數（RSI）呈現混合訊號，峰值達到 80，表明 BTC 可能超賣。交易者應密切注意該指標，以評估市場是否過度上行。

Conclusion

結論

While Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs have outperformed the TradFi bond ETF market this year, a period of consolidation may be underway. However, the potential impact of Bitcoin ETFs on the price of BTC remains a key factor to consider as the next halving approaches. Investors and traders should closely monitor the technical and fundamental factors influencing the market to make informed decisions.

儘管今年比特幣和比特幣 ETF 的表現優於 TradFi 債券 ETF 市場，但一段整合期可能正在進行中。然而，隨著下一次減半的臨近，比特幣 ETF 對 BTC 價格的潛在影響仍然是需要考慮的關鍵因素。投資者和交易者應密切注意影響市場的技術和基本面因素，以做出明智的決策。