比特币 ETF 跑赢 TradFi 债券 ETF，预示着潜在的市场转变

减半后，比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）今年的表现已超过传统金融（TradFi）债券ETF。尽管比特币 ETF 的推出最初令人兴奋，但目前正处于盘整阶段，比特币交易价格约为 62,100 美元。然而，这些基金在美国的成功以及最近在香港的批准表明了进一步的增长潜力。

Bitcoin ETFs Outperform TradFi Bond ETFs, Signaling Potential Market Shifts

比特币 ETF 跑赢 TradFi 债券 ETF，预示着潜在的市场转变

Following the highly anticipated halving event, Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have endured market fluctuations, yet they have significantly outperformed traditional finance (TradFi) bond ETFs this year.

在备受期待的减半事件之后，比特币（BTC）交易所交易基金（ETF）经历了市场波动，但今年的表现却明显优于传统金融（TradFi）债券ETF。

TradFi Bond ETF Market Struggles

TradFi 债券 ETF 市场困境

Data from Hodl15Capital reveals a sobering picture for the TradFi bond ETF market. Five of the largest Vanguard bond funds have experienced a combined loss of $6.3 billion year-to-date (YTD), with total assets dwindling to $267 billion. This stark contrast with the resilience of Bitcoin ETFs raises questions about the future trajectory of these investment vehicles.

Hodl15Capital 的数据揭示了 TradFi 债券 ETF 市场的严峻形势。迄今为止，Vanguard 旗下五只最大的债券基金累计亏损 63 亿美元，总资产缩减至 2,670 亿美元。这与比特币 ETF 的弹性形成鲜明对比，引发了人们对这些投资工具未来轨迹的质疑。

Bitcoin ETFs as a Driver for BTC

比特币 ETF 作为 BTC 的驱动力

Industry experts believe that Bitcoin ETFs could play a pivotal role in driving up the price of BTC in the lead-up to the next halving, scheduled for May 2024. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2023 sparked a buying frenzy, with funds accumulating over 500,000 bitcoins.

行业专家认为，在计划于 2024 年 5 月进行的下一次减半之前，比特币 ETF 可能会在推高 BTC 价格方面发挥关键作用。2023 年 1 月推出的现货比特币 ETF 引发了购买狂潮，资金不断积累超过 500,000 个比特币。

Initial Rush Cools, Consolidation Phase Emerges

最初的热潮降温，整合阶段出现

Despite the initial excitement, the Bitcoin ETF market is now consolidating, with traders monitoring the price action closely. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $62,100, down 15% from its March peak of $73,000.

尽管最初令人兴奋，但比特币 ETF 市场现在正在整合，交易员密切关注价格走势。比特币目前徘徊在 62,100 美元左右，较 3 月份峰值 73,000 美元下跌 15%。

Milestone Achievements and Global Expansion

里程碑式的成就和全球扩张

Despite the current lull in investor interest, Bitcoin ETFs have achieved significant milestones in a short period. They have amassed over $54 billion in assets in just three months, and BlackRock's IBIT ETF has experienced a record-breaking 71 days of inflows.

尽管目前投资者兴趣低迷，但比特币 ETF 在短时间内取得了重大里程碑。他们在短短三个月内就积累了超过 540 亿美元的资产，贝莱德的 IBIT ETF 经历了创纪录的 71 天资金流入。

The success of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has paved the way for their expansion into international markets. Hong Kong recently approved three spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, a move that could trigger competitive fee reductions similar to those seen in the U.S. market.

比特币 ETF 在美国的成功为其进军国际市场铺平了道路。香港最近批准了三只现货比特币和以太币 ETF，此举可能会引发类似于美国市场的竞争性费用降低。

Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals for Bitcoin

技术分析：比特币的混合信号

As April draws to a close, Bitcoin is poised to experience its worst month of 2024. The 200-day moving average (MA) remains above the 20-day MA, signaling a potential long-term downtrend. However, the price action is testing the 20-day MA, and a crossing above it could trigger a bullish "golden cross" pattern.

随着 4 月接近尾声，比特币有望经历 2024 年最糟糕的一个月。200 日移动平均线 (MA) 仍高于 20 日移动平均线，预示着潜在的长期下降趋势。然而，价格走势正在测试 20 日均线，突破该均线可能会触发看涨的“金叉”模式。

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) presents mixed signals, with peaks reaching 80, indicating that BTC could be oversold. Traders should monitor this indicator closely to assess whether the market is overextended to the upside.

相对强度指数（RSI）呈现出混合信号，峰值达到 80，表明 BTC 可能超卖。交易者应密切关注该指标，以评估市场是否过度上行。

Conclusion

结论

While Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs have outperformed the TradFi bond ETF market this year, a period of consolidation may be underway. However, the potential impact of Bitcoin ETFs on the price of BTC remains a key factor to consider as the next halving approaches. Investors and traders should closely monitor the technical and fundamental factors influencing the market to make informed decisions.

尽管今年比特币和比特币 ETF 的表现优于 TradFi 债券 ETF 市场，但一段整合期可能正在进行中。然而，随着下一次减半的临近，比特币 ETF 对 BTC 价格的潜在影响仍然是需要考虑的关键因素。投资者和交易者应密切关注影响市场的技术和基本面因素，以做出明智的决策。