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過去兩個月,比特幣一直處於持續的「欣快浪潮」中,這一模式與先前多頭市場的最後階段類似。 「供應獲利狀態」指標追蹤當前獲利的流通供應百分比,已進入「興奮」階段,高於+1標準差閾值。如果這種長期的欣快階段遵循與上次牛市類似的軌跡,則可能表明當前的比特幣反彈仍需要幾個月的擴張週期。
Bitcoin Enters Euphoric Phase, Echoes Bullish Pattern from Previous Cycle
比特幣進入欣快階段,與上一個週期的看漲模式相呼應
On-chain data reveals that Bitcoin has embarked on a two-month "euphoria wave," mirroring a significant phase witnessed during the last bull run. This analysis, provided by the renowned on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, sheds light on the current market's dynamics and potential trajectory.
鏈上數據顯示,比特幣已經開始了為期兩個月的“欣快浪潮”,反映了上一次牛市期間見證的一個重要階段。該分析由著名的鏈上分析公司 Glassnode 提供,揭示了當前市場的動態和潛在軌跡。
Supply Profitability State: A Key Indicator
供應獲利狀況:一個關鍵指標
The "Supply Profitability State" indicator, based on the "Percent Supply in Profit," monitors the percentage of the total circulating Bitcoin supply that is currently yielding a profit. By examining the on-chain history of each coin in circulation, the indicator approximates the price at which it was last transacted. If this price is lower than the current spot price, the coin holds a net unrealized gain.
“供應獲利狀態”指標是基於“供應占利潤的百分比”,監控當前正在產生利潤的比特幣流通總量的百分比。透過檢查流通中的每種代幣的鏈上歷史記錄,該指標可以估算出其上次交易的價格。如果該價格低於當前現貨價格,則代幣持有未實現淨收益。
When a significant proportion of the supply is in profit, it signals the market's euphoric sentiment. Glassnode identifies three important lines for the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit: the cumulative mean (blue line), and the +1 (green) and -1 (red) standard deviation (SD) from this mean.
當有很大一部分供應量處於獲利狀態時,就表示市場情緒樂觀。 Glassnode 確定了比特幣利潤供應百分比的三條重要線:累積平均值(藍線)以及該平均值的 +1(綠色)和 -1(紅色)標準差 (SD)。
Euphoria Wave and Bull Run Correlation
欣快波和牛市的相關性
During the last bull run, Bitcoin experienced a 1.5-month pre-euphoria wave, which subsequently transitioned into a period of decline and consolidation. This was followed by a sharp rally that broke past the +1SD barrier, leading to new all-time highs.
在上一次多頭市場中,比特幣經歷了長達1.5個月的前熱潮,隨後轉入下跌盤整期。隨後出現大幅反彈,突破+1SD 關卡,創下歷史新高。
The current bull cycle exhibits a similar pattern. A two-month pre-euphoria phase was followed by a drawdown, which has now been succeeded by another two-month euphoria wave. This wave has pushed Bitcoin to new record highs.
目前的牛市週期也呈現類似的模式。兩個月的興奮前階段之後是回撤,現在又迎來了另一個兩個月的興奮浪潮。這一波推動比特幣創下新高。
Potential Duration of Euphoria Wave
欣快感波的潛在持續時間
If the current euphoria wave persists for a similar period as in the last bull run, approximately four or more months of the Bitcoin bull rally could remain. This conclusion stems from the analysis of historical data that suggests a correlation between the length of the euphoria wave and the overall duration of the bull market.
如果當前的樂觀浪潮持續與上次牛市類似的時間,那麼比特幣牛市反彈可能會持續大約四個月或更長時間。這個結論源於對歷史數據的分析,該分析表明欣快波的長度與牛市的整體持續時間之間存在相關性。
BTC Price Dynamics
比特幣價格動態
Bitcoin's price has recently retraced slightly from its peak above $72,000, hovering around the $69,400 level. Despite this pullback, the asset remains well within the bullish momentum that has characterized the last few months.
比特幣價格最近從 72,000 美元上方的峰值小幅回落,徘徊在 69,400 美元水平附近。儘管出現這種回調,但該資產仍處於過去幾個月的看漲勢頭之中。
Conclusion
結論
The on-chain analysis of Bitcoin's Supply Profitability State provides valuable insights into the market's sentiment and potential trajectory. The current euphoria wave, echoing the pattern observed during the last bull run, suggests that the bullish momentum may continue for an extended period. However, as with any investment, it is crucial to conduct thorough research and exercise due diligence before making any decisions.
比特幣供應盈利能力狀態的鏈上分析為市場情緒和潛在軌跡提供了寶貴的見解。當前的樂觀浪潮與上次牛市期間觀察到的模式相呼應,顯示看漲勢頭可能會持續較長一段時間。然而,與任何投資一樣,在做出任何決定之前進行徹底的研究和盡職調查至關重要。
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