比特币进入欣快阶段，反映出上一周期的看涨轨迹

过去两个月，比特币一直处于持续的“欣快浪潮”中，这一模式与之前牛市的最后阶段类似。 “供应盈利状态”指标跟踪当前盈利的流通供应百分比，已进入“兴奋”阶段，高于+1标准差阈值。如果这种长期的欣快阶段遵循与上次牛市类似的轨迹，则可能表明当前的比特币反弹仍需要几个月的扩张周期。

Bitcoin Enters Euphoric Phase, Echoes Bullish Pattern from Previous Cycle

比特币进入欣快阶段，与上一个周期的看涨模式相呼应

On-chain data reveals that Bitcoin has embarked on a two-month "euphoria wave," mirroring a significant phase witnessed during the last bull run. This analysis, provided by the renowned on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, sheds light on the current market's dynamics and potential trajectory.

链上数据显示，比特币已经开始了为期两个月的“欣快浪潮”，反映了上一次牛市期间见证的一个重要阶段。该分析由著名的链上分析公司 Glassnode 提供，揭示了当前市场的动态和潜在轨迹。

Supply Profitability State: A Key Indicator

供应盈利状况：一个关键指标

The "Supply Profitability State" indicator, based on the "Percent Supply in Profit," monitors the percentage of the total circulating Bitcoin supply that is currently yielding a profit. By examining the on-chain history of each coin in circulation, the indicator approximates the price at which it was last transacted. If this price is lower than the current spot price, the coin holds a net unrealized gain.

“供应盈利状态”指标基于“供应占利润的百分比”，监控当前正在产生利润的比特币流通总量的百分比。通过检查流通中的每种代币的链上历史记录，该指标可以估算出其上次交易的价格。如果该价格低于当前现货价格，则代币持有未实现净收益。

When a significant proportion of the supply is in profit, it signals the market's euphoric sentiment. Glassnode identifies three important lines for the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit: the cumulative mean (blue line), and the +1 (green) and -1 (red) standard deviation (SD) from this mean.

当很大一部分供应量处于盈利状态时，就表明市场情绪乐观。 Glassnode 确定了比特币利润供应百分比的三条重要线：累积平均值（蓝线）以及该平均值的 +1（绿色）和 -1（红色）标准差 (SD)。

Euphoria Wave and Bull Run Correlation

欣快波和牛市的相关性

During the last bull run, Bitcoin experienced a 1.5-month pre-euphoria wave, which subsequently transitioned into a period of decline and consolidation. This was followed by a sharp rally that broke past the +1SD barrier, leading to new all-time highs.

在上一次牛市中，比特币经历了长达1.5个月的前热潮，随后转入下跌盘整期。随后出现大幅反弹，突破+1SD 关口，创下历史新高。

The current bull cycle exhibits a similar pattern. A two-month pre-euphoria phase was followed by a drawdown, which has now been succeeded by another two-month euphoria wave. This wave has pushed Bitcoin to new record highs.

当前的牛市周期也呈现出类似的模式。两个月的兴奋前阶段之后是回撤，现在又迎来了另一个两个月的兴奋浪潮。这一波推动比特币创下新高。

Potential Duration of Euphoria Wave

欣快感波的潜在持续时间

If the current euphoria wave persists for a similar period as in the last bull run, approximately four or more months of the Bitcoin bull rally could remain. This conclusion stems from the analysis of historical data that suggests a correlation between the length of the euphoria wave and the overall duration of the bull market.

如果当前的乐观浪潮持续与上次牛市类似的时间，那么比特币牛市反弹可能会持续大约四个月或更长时间。这一结论源于对历史数据的分析，该分析表明欣快波的长度与牛市的整体持续时间之间存在相关性。

BTC Price Dynamics

比特币价格动态

Bitcoin's price has recently retraced slightly from its peak above $72,000, hovering around the $69,400 level. Despite this pullback, the asset remains well within the bullish momentum that has characterized the last few months.

比特币价格最近从 72,000 美元上方的峰值小幅回落，徘徊在 69,400 美元水平附近。尽管出现这种回调，但该资产仍处于过去几个月的看涨势头之中。

Conclusion

结论

The on-chain analysis of Bitcoin's Supply Profitability State provides valuable insights into the market's sentiment and potential trajectory. The current euphoria wave, echoing the pattern observed during the last bull run, suggests that the bullish momentum may continue for an extended period. However, as with any investment, it is crucial to conduct thorough research and exercise due diligence before making any decisions.

对比特币供应盈利能力状态的链上分析为市场情绪和潜在轨迹提供了宝贵的见解。当前的乐观浪潮与上次牛市期间观察到的模式相呼应，表明看涨势头可能会持续较长一段时间。然而，与任何投资一样，在做出任何决定之前进行彻底的研究和尽职调查至关重要。