比特幣的價值之謎：泡沫難題還是防範金融末日的保險？

Wolfgang Münchau 認為，儘管圍繞 ETF 和減半事件進行了大肆宣傳，但比特幣的波動性仍然令人擔憂。雖然將比特幣視為一種現代資產類別表明存在泡沫擔憂，但 Münchau 強調其價值應獨立於美元進行評估，並將其與黃金的固定供應量進行比較，以推斷潛在的更高公允價值。然而，他強調，比特幣的價值最終取決於個人對系統性風險的看法以及它作為應對潛在金融危機的保險的作用。

Bitcoin: A Conundrum of Value and Volatility

比特幣：價值與波動性的難題

Introduction

介紹

Bitcoin, the enigmatic cryptocurrency, has captivated the financial world with its meteoric rise and equally dramatic fluctuations. While some herald it as a revolutionary asset class, others dismiss it as a mere bubble. In an attempt to unravel this enigmatic phenomenon, Wolfgang Münchau, a renowned columnist for DL News, delves into the complexities of Bitcoin's value and volatility.

比特幣這種神秘的加密貨幣以其迅速崛起和同樣劇烈的波動吸引了金融界的目光。雖然有些人將其視為一種革命性的資產類別，但有些人則將其視為純粹的泡沫。為了揭開這一神秘現象，DL News 著名專欄作家 Wolfgang Münchau 深入研究了比特幣價值和波動性的複雜性。

Defining Bitcoin's Value

定義比特幣的價值

The fundamental challenge in assessing Bitcoin's value lies in its unique nature, which defies traditional definitions of money and asset value. According to conventional macroeconomic theory, Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value as it does not carry value in the same manner as fiat currencies or physical commodities.

評估比特幣價值的根本挑戰在於其獨特性，它違背了貨幣和資產價值的傳統定義。根據傳統的宏觀經濟理論，比特幣缺乏內在價值，因為它不像法定貨幣或實體商品那麼有價值。

The Bubble Conundrum

泡沫難題

Despite its dubious intrinsic value, Bitcoin has experienced significant price appreciation, raising concerns about a potential bubble. Münchau argues that if Bitcoin is viewed as a modern asset class, sought after for its scarcity, then the possibility of a bubble cannot be dismissed. However, he cautions that investors should be prepared for extreme volatility if they solely focus on dollar returns.

儘管其內在價值令人懷疑，但比特幣的價格卻大幅上漲，引發了人們對潛在泡沫的擔憂。 Münchau 認為，如果比特幣被視為一種現代資產類別，因其稀缺性而受到追捧，那麼就不能排除泡沫的可能性。不過，他警告說，如果投資者只關注美元回報，就應該為極端波動做好準備。

The Psychology of Bubbles

泡沫心理學

Münchau emphasizes that bubbles are not inherently financial phenomena but psychological ones. Irrational exuberance drives prices higher, as investors buy because prices are rising and prices rise because investors are buying. This self-reinforcing cycle is reminiscent of the infamous dotcom bubble.

明肖強調，泡沫本質上並不是金融現象，而是心理現象。非理性繁榮推高價格，因為投資人買進是因為價格上漲，價格上漲又是因為投資人買進。這種自我強化的循環讓人想起臭名昭著的網路泡沫。

Spot ETFs and the Halving: Transient Effects

現貨 ETF 與減半：短暫影響

Münchau dismisses the notion that the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or the halving event – a periodic reduction in rewards for Bitcoin miners – will have any lasting impact on prices. While these events may lead to temporary inflows and price increases, the effects are ultimately self-canceling.

Münchau 駁斥了這樣一種觀點，即現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的引入或減半事件（定期減少比特幣礦工的獎勵）將對價格產生持久影響。雖然這些事件可能會導致暫時的資金流入和價格上漲，但其影響最終會自我抵消。

Tail Risk Insurance

尾部風險保險

While Münchau acknowledges the potential pitfalls of investing in Bitcoin, he personally views it as a financial options contract. He believes it provides investors with insurance against debasement, financial repression, or other catastrophic events that could compromise traditional financial systems.

雖然 Münchau 承認投資比特幣存在潛在陷阱，但他個人將其視為一種金融選擇合約。他認為，它為投資者提供了防範貶值、金融抑製或其他可能損害傳統金融體系的災難性事件的保險。

Valuing the Insurance Premium

保險費估值

Münchau struggles to assign a dollar value to Bitcoin's insurance premium due to the inherent uncertainty of the risks it protects against. He draws a parallel to credit default swaps during the global financial crisis, highlighting the difficulty in valuing protection against catastrophic events.

由於比特幣所防範的風險固有的不確定性，Münchau 很難為比特幣的保險費確定美元價值。他將全球金融危機期間的信用違約互換進行了類比，強調了評估災難性事件保護的困難。

Bitcoin and Gold: A Comparative Perspective

比特幣與黃金：比較視角

To circumvent the complexities of valuing Bitcoin in dollars, Münchau compares it to gold. He estimates that Bitcoin's current market capitalization is less than 8% of the total value of known gold reserves. This comparison suggests that Bitcoin's fair value could be significantly higher than its current market price.

為了規避以美元計價比特幣的複雜性，Münchau 將其與黃金進行了比較。他估計，比特幣目前的市值還不到已知黃金儲備總價值的8%。這一比較表明，比特幣的公允價值可能明顯高於當前的市場價格。

Distinction from Gold

與黃金的區別

Münchau acknowledges that Bitcoin and gold are not directly comparable due to their differing physical and transactional properties. While gold retains some physical utility, Bitcoin's primary value lies in its transactional functionality.

Münchau 承認，由於比特幣和黃金的物理和交易屬性不同，因此它們不具有直接可比性。雖然黃金保留了一些實體效用，但比特幣的主要價值在於其交易功能。

Capped Supply and Bubble Status

供應上限和泡沫狀態

Münchau emphasizes Bitcoin's capped supply of 21 million coins as a key factor in its potential to avoid bubble status. Unlike gold, which can be discovered and extracted indefinitely, Bitcoin's finite supply limits the potential for oversupply.

Münchau 強調，比特幣的 2,100 萬枚比特幣供應上限是其避免泡沫狀態的關鍵因素。與可以無限期地發現和開採的黃金不同，比特幣的有限供應限制了供應過剩的可能性。

Conclusion: A Test of Value

結論：價值測試

Münchau concludes that Bitcoin's true value depends on the individual investor's perception of risk. Those who recognize the potential for catastrophic events and value the insurance that Bitcoin offers may consider it a prudent investment. However, those solely focused on dollar returns should be mindful of the risks associated with its volatility and potential bubble status.

Münchau 的結論是，比特幣的真正價值取決於個人投資者對風險的看法。那些認識到災難性事件的可能性並重視比特幣提供的保險的人可能會認為這是一項謹慎的投資。然而，那些只關注美元回報的人應該注意與其波動性和潛在泡沫狀態相關的風險。

Ultimately, Münchau asserts that the true test of Bitcoin's value lies in its ability to retain value even in the event of a dollar collapse. If it proves to be a reliable hedge against financial turmoil, then it may be considered a genuine value investment. However, if its price is primarily driven by speculative fervor, then the risk of a bubble remains.

最終，Münchau 斷言，對比特幣價值的真正考驗在於其即使在美元貶值的情況下也能保值的能力。如果它被證明是抵禦金融動盪的可靠對沖工具，那麼它可能被認為是真正的價值投資。然而，如果其價格主要由投機熱情驅動，那麼泡沫風險仍然存在。