比特币的价值之谜：泡沫难题还是防范金融末日的保险？

Wolfgang Münchau 认为，尽管围绕 ETF 和减半事件进行了大肆宣传，但比特币的波动性仍然令人担忧。虽然将比特币视为一种现代资产类别表明存在泡沫担忧，但 Münchau 强调其价值应独立于美元进行评估，并将其与黄金的固定供应量进行比较，以推断潜在的更高公允价值。然而，他强调，比特币的价值最终取决于个人对系统性风险的看法以及它作为应对潜在金融危机的保险的作用。

Bitcoin: A Conundrum of Value and Volatility

比特币：价值和波动性的难题

Introduction

介绍

Bitcoin, the enigmatic cryptocurrency, has captivated the financial world with its meteoric rise and equally dramatic fluctuations. While some herald it as a revolutionary asset class, others dismiss it as a mere bubble. In an attempt to unravel this enigmatic phenomenon, Wolfgang Münchau, a renowned columnist for DL News, delves into the complexities of Bitcoin's value and volatility.

比特币这种神秘的加密货币以其迅速崛起和同样剧烈的波动吸引了金融界的目光。虽然一些人将其视为一种革命性的资产类别，但另一些人则将其视为纯粹的泡沫。为了揭开这一神秘现象，DL News 著名专栏作家 Wolfgang Münchau 深入研究了比特币价值和波动性的复杂性。

Defining Bitcoin's Value

定义比特币的价值

The fundamental challenge in assessing Bitcoin's value lies in its unique nature, which defies traditional definitions of money and asset value. According to conventional macroeconomic theory, Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value as it does not carry value in the same manner as fiat currencies or physical commodities.

评估比特币价值的根本挑战在于其独特性，它违背了货币和资产价值的传统定义。根据传统的宏观经济理论，比特币缺乏内在价值，因为它不像法定货币或实物商品那样具有价值。

The Bubble Conundrum

泡沫难题

Despite its dubious intrinsic value, Bitcoin has experienced significant price appreciation, raising concerns about a potential bubble. Münchau argues that if Bitcoin is viewed as a modern asset class, sought after for its scarcity, then the possibility of a bubble cannot be dismissed. However, he cautions that investors should be prepared for extreme volatility if they solely focus on dollar returns.

尽管其内在价值令人怀疑，但比特币的价格却大幅上涨，引发了人们对潜在泡沫的担忧。 Münchau 认为，如果比特币被视为一种现代资产类别，因其稀缺性而受到追捧，那么就不能排除泡沫的可能性。不过，他警告说，如果投资者只关注美元回报，就应该为极端波动做好准备。

The Psychology of Bubbles

泡沫心理学

Münchau emphasizes that bubbles are not inherently financial phenomena but psychological ones. Irrational exuberance drives prices higher, as investors buy because prices are rising and prices rise because investors are buying. This self-reinforcing cycle is reminiscent of the infamous dotcom bubble.

明肖强调，泡沫本质上并不是金融现象，而是心理现象。非理性繁荣推高价格，因为投资者买入是因为价格上涨，价格上涨又是因为投资者买入。这种自我强化的循环让人想起臭名昭著的互联网泡沫。

Spot ETFs and the Halving: Transient Effects

现货 ETF 和减半：短暂影响

Münchau dismisses the notion that the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or the halving event – a periodic reduction in rewards for Bitcoin miners – will have any lasting impact on prices. While these events may lead to temporary inflows and price increases, the effects are ultimately self-canceling.

Münchau 驳斥了这样一种观点，即现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的引入或减半事件（定期减少比特币矿工的奖励）将对价格产生持久影响。虽然这些事件可能会导致暂时的资金流入和价格上涨，但其影响最终会自我抵消。

Tail Risk Insurance

尾部风险保险

While Münchau acknowledges the potential pitfalls of investing in Bitcoin, he personally views it as a financial options contract. He believes it provides investors with insurance against debasement, financial repression, or other catastrophic events that could compromise traditional financial systems.

虽然 Münchau 承认投资比特币存在潜在陷阱，但他个人将其视为一种金融期权合约。他认为，它为投资者提供了防范贬值、金融抑制或其他可能损害传统金融体系的灾难性事件的保险。

Valuing the Insurance Premium

保险费估值

Münchau struggles to assign a dollar value to Bitcoin's insurance premium due to the inherent uncertainty of the risks it protects against. He draws a parallel to credit default swaps during the global financial crisis, highlighting the difficulty in valuing protection against catastrophic events.

由于比特币所防范的风险固有的不确定性，Münchau 很难为比特币的保险费确定美元价值。他将全球金融危机期间的信用违约互换进行了类比，强调了评估灾难性事件保护的难度。

Bitcoin and Gold: A Comparative Perspective

比特币和黄金：比较视角

To circumvent the complexities of valuing Bitcoin in dollars, Münchau compares it to gold. He estimates that Bitcoin's current market capitalization is less than 8% of the total value of known gold reserves. This comparison suggests that Bitcoin's fair value could be significantly higher than its current market price.

为了规避以美元计价比特币的复杂性，Münchau 将其与黄金进行了比较。他估计，比特币目前的市值还不到已知黄金储备总价值的8%。这一比较表明，比特币的公允价值可能明显高于当前的市场价格。

Distinction from Gold

与黄金的区别

Münchau acknowledges that Bitcoin and gold are not directly comparable due to their differing physical and transactional properties. While gold retains some physical utility, Bitcoin's primary value lies in its transactional functionality.

Münchau 承认，由于比特币和黄金的物理和交易属性不同，因此它们不具有直接可比性。虽然黄金保留了一些实物效用，但比特币的主要价值在于其交易功能。

Capped Supply and Bubble Status

供应上限和泡沫状态

Münchau emphasizes Bitcoin's capped supply of 21 million coins as a key factor in its potential to avoid bubble status. Unlike gold, which can be discovered and extracted indefinitely, Bitcoin's finite supply limits the potential for oversupply.

Münchau 强调，比特币的 2100 万枚比特币供应上限是其避免泡沫状态的关键因素。与可以无限期地发现和开采的黄金不同，比特币的有限供应限制了供应过剩的可能性。

Conclusion: A Test of Value

结论：价值测试

Münchau concludes that Bitcoin's true value depends on the individual investor's perception of risk. Those who recognize the potential for catastrophic events and value the insurance that Bitcoin offers may consider it a prudent investment. However, those solely focused on dollar returns should be mindful of the risks associated with its volatility and potential bubble status.

Münchau 的结论是，比特币的真正价值取决于个人投资者对风险的看法。那些认识到灾难性事件的可能性并重视比特币提供的保险的人可能会认为这是一项谨慎的投资。然而，那些只关注美元回报的人应该注意与其波动性和潜在泡沫状态相关的风险。

Ultimately, Münchau asserts that the true test of Bitcoin's value lies in its ability to retain value even in the event of a dollar collapse. If it proves to be a reliable hedge against financial turmoil, then it may be considered a genuine value investment. However, if its price is primarily driven by speculative fervor, then the risk of a bubble remains.

最终，Münchau 断言，对比特币价值的真正考验在于其即使在美元贬值的情况下也能保值的能力。如果它被证明是抵御金融动荡的可靠对冲工具，那么它可能被认为是真正的价值投资。然而，如果其价格主要由投机热情驱动，那么泡沫风险仍然存在。