比特幣：改變預測的動態

如果說 2023 年是不平凡的一年，那麼 2024 年比特幣價格有望出現更驚人的上漲。

Markets are now anticipating a rapid surge in the Bitcoin price, but the realities of the market are putting a final brake on the enthusiasm. Behind the scenes, a battle is brewing between ETFs and long-term investors, threatening to disrupt the rising tide.

市場現在預計比特幣價格將迅速飆升，但市場的現實最終正在抑制這種熱情。在幕後，ETF和長期投資者之間正在醞釀一場戰鬥，有可能擾亂上漲的浪潮。

Bitcoin price: A dynamic that shakes up forecasts

比特幣價格：動搖預測的動態

If 2023 was an exceptional year, 2024 promises to be even more spectacular in terms of the Bitcoin price. According to Kalshi data, BTC has an 85% chance of reaching $100,000 by the end of the year. And that's not all: 9% of analysts predict a Bitcoin flirting with $150,000, while a few optimists bet on a frenzy at $250,000.

如果說 2023 年是不平凡的一年，那麼 2024 年比特幣價格將會更加驚人。根據 Kalshi 的數據，BTC 有 85% 的機會在今年年底達到 10 萬美元。這還不是全部：9% 的分析師預測比特幣價格將達到 15 萬美元，而一些樂觀主義者則押注比特幣價格將瘋狂上漲至 25 萬美元。

Several signals seem to converge to support these forecasts:

幾個訊號似乎匯聚在一起支持這些預測：

Bitcoin ETFs, which are attracting record volumes, are at the heart of the game. Data shows a historic week with inflows exceeding $100 billion in assets under management. However, this is not enough to calm the ardor of old investors, ready to cash in after years of waiting.

比特幣 ETF 吸引了創紀錄的交易量，是這場遊戲的核心。數據顯示，歷史性的一週管理資產流入量超過 1,000 億美元。然而，這並不足以平息老投資者的熱情，他們在等待多年後準備套現。

As summarized by the Kobeissi Letter, “the markets are already pricing in an explosion towards $100,000,” and the current figures verge on the irrational. But this euphoria rests on a fragile balance: old HODLers, attracted by monstrous profits, could slow progress with massive sales.

正如《Kobeissi Letter》所總結的那樣，“市場定價已經飆升至 100,000 美元”，而當前的數字近乎不合理。但這種興奮感建立在一個脆弱的平衡之上：老持有者被巨額利潤所吸引，可能會因大規模銷售而減緩進展。

Crypto investors: Between hope and temptation to take profits

加密貨幣投資者：在希望與獲利的誘惑之間

Glassnode observes that unrealized gains are reaching critical peaks, and a correction would even be healthy to stabilize the poor market. However, another factor comes into play: fierce competition between institutions and individuals. The latter, galvanized by opportunities, fear massive profit-taking that could crush the current momentum.

Glassnode 觀察到，未實現收益已達到關鍵峰值，調整甚至有利於穩定低迷的市場。然而，另一個因素也在發揮作用：機構和個人之間的激烈競爭。後者受到機會的刺激，擔心大規模獲利了結可能會破壞當前的勢頭。

“History often repeats itself, but never in the same way,” experts say. The bullish momentum remains the strongest in a long time, but avoiding overheating will be necessary to see 2025 crown a historic bull run.

專家表示：“歷史經常重演，但從來不會以同樣的方式重演。”看漲勢頭仍然是長期以來最強勁的，但要在 2025 年實現歷史性牛市，就必須避免過熱。

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La révolution blockchain et crypto est en marche ! Et le jour où les impacts se feront ressentir sur l’économie la plus vulnérable de ce Monde, contre toute espérance, je dirai que j’y étais pour quelque chose

區塊鏈和加密貨幣革命正在進行中！當世界上最脆弱的經濟體感受到影響的那一天，儘管萬般希望，我會說我與它有關