比特币：改变预测的动态

如果说 2023 年是不平凡的一年，那么 2024 年比特币价格有望出现更加惊人的上涨。

Markets are now anticipating a rapid surge in the Bitcoin price, but the realities of the market are putting a final brake on the enthusiasm. Behind the scenes, a battle is brewing between ETFs and long-term investors, threatening to disrupt the rising tide.

市场现在预计比特币价格将迅速飙升，但市场的现实正在最终抑制这种热情。在幕后，ETF和长期投资者之间正在酝酿一场战斗，有可能扰乱上涨的浪潮。

Bitcoin price: A dynamic that shakes up forecasts

比特币价格：动摇预测的动态

If 2023 was an exceptional year, 2024 promises to be even more spectacular in terms of the Bitcoin price. According to Kalshi data, BTC has an 85% chance of reaching $100,000 by the end of the year. And that's not all: 9% of analysts predict a Bitcoin flirting with $150,000, while a few optimists bet on a frenzy at $250,000.

如果说 2023 年是不平凡的一年，那么 2024 年比特币价格将更加惊人。根据 Kalshi 的数据，BTC 有 85% 的机会在今年年底达到 10 万美元。这还不是全部：9% 的分析师预测比特币价格将达到 15 万美元，而一些乐观主义者则押注比特币价格将疯狂上涨至 25 万美元。

Several signals seem to converge to support these forecasts:

几个信号似乎汇聚在一起支持这些预测：

Bitcoin ETFs, which are attracting record volumes, are at the heart of the game. Data shows a historic week with inflows exceeding $100 billion in assets under management. However, this is not enough to calm the ardor of old investors, ready to cash in after years of waiting.

比特币 ETF 吸引了创纪录的交易量，是这场游戏的核心。数据显示，历史性的一周管理资产流入量超过 1000 亿美元。然而，这并不足以平息老投资者的热情，他们在等待多年后准备套现。

As summarized by the Kobeissi Letter, “the markets are already pricing in an explosion towards $100,000,” and the current figures verge on the irrational. But this euphoria rests on a fragile balance: old HODLers, attracted by monstrous profits, could slow progress with massive sales.

正如《Kobeissi Letter》所总结的那样，“市场定价已经飙升至 100,000 美元”，而当前的数字近乎不合理。但这种兴奋感建立在一个脆弱的平衡之上：老持有者被巨额利润所吸引，可能会因大规模销售而减缓进展。

Crypto investors: Between hope and temptation to take profits

加密货币投资者：在希望与获利的诱惑之间

Glassnode observes that unrealized gains are reaching critical peaks, and a correction would even be healthy to stabilize the poor market. However, another factor comes into play: fierce competition between institutions and individuals. The latter, galvanized by opportunities, fear massive profit-taking that could crush the current momentum.

Glassnode 观察到，未实现收益已达到关键峰值，调整甚至有利于稳定低迷的市场。然而，另一个因素也在发挥作用：机构和个人之间的激烈竞争。后者受到机遇的刺激，担心大规模获利了结可能会破坏当前的势头。

“History often repeats itself, but never in the same way,” experts say. The bullish momentum remains the strongest in a long time, but avoiding overheating will be necessary to see 2025 crown a historic bull run.

专家表示：“历史经常重演，但从来不会以同样的方式重演。”看涨势头仍然是长期以来最强劲的，但要在 2025 年实现历史性牛市，就必须避免过热。

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La révolution blockchain et crypto est en marche ! Et le jour où les impacts se feront ressentir sur l’économie la plus vulnérable de ce Monde, contre toute espérance, je dirai que j’y étais pour quelque chose

区块链和加密货币革命正在进行中！当世界上最脆弱的经济体感受到影响的那一天，尽管万般希望，我会说我与它有关