比特幣的下降趨勢可能持續時間比預期的更長

一些分析師認為，比特幣的下降趨勢可能會持續時間比預期的要長。

Some analysts believe that Bitcoin’s downward trend could persist for longer than anticipated, especially considering recent macroeconomic developments.

一些分析人士認為，比特幣的下降趨勢可能會持續時間比預期的要長，尤其是考慮到最近的宏觀經濟發展。

According to Quinn Thompson, head of the crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, Bitcoin’s decline won’t be sudden but rather a gradual slide that might take the flagship cryptocurrency below $60,000 by the end of the year. Unlike previous instances of sharp crashes and rallies, Thompson expects a slow grind that could test investors’ resilience.

根據加密對沖基金Lekker Capital負責人奎因·湯普森（Quinn Thompson）的說法，比特幣的下降不會是突然的，而是逐漸滑動，可能會在年底之前將旗艦加密貨幣低於60,000美元。與以前的崩潰和集會的情況不同，湯普森預計會很慢，可以測試投資者的韌性。

While some market voices have become more optimistic recently, specifically highlighting the Trump administration’s initiative to create a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund and a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Thompson remains pessimistic. He views the hype surrounding these projects as nothing more than fleeting news without real impact.

儘管某些市場聲音最近變得更加樂觀，特別是強調了特朗普政府創建美國主權財富基金和戰略比特幣儲備金的倡議，但湯普森仍然是悲觀的。他認為圍繞這​​些項目的炒作無非是沒有真正影響的新聞。

Moreover, Thompson isn’t convinced by MicroStrategy’s continued Bitcoin acquisitions, deeming them an outlier rather than a sign of strong market demand.

此外，湯普森（Thompson）並不相信MicroStrategy繼續進行比特幣的收購，認為它們是異常值的，而不是強勁的市場需求跡象。

The essence of Thompson’s bearish outlook lies in the current economic environment, recently touched upon by Elon Musk, who's also known for his involvement with SpaceX and Tesla.

湯普森（Thompson）看跌前景的本質在於當前的經濟環境，最近由埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）談到，他也因參與SpaceX和Tesla而聞名。

One major factor is the government’s push to reduce spending, spearheaded by the Department of Government Productivity (DOGE). With plans to cut the federal budget by up to $1 trillion and lay off 500,000 government employees, the administration aims to decrease the deficit and stimulate private-sector hiring.

一個主要因素是政府降低支出的推動，由政府生產力（Doge）領導。隨著計劃將聯邦預算減少到1萬億美元並減少50萬政府僱員，政府旨在減少赤字並刺激私營部門的招聘。

While the final spending cuts might be less severe than planned, with final appropriations bills still pending in Congress, Thompson believes this move will slow economic growth and dampen consumer confidence.

雖然最終的支出削減可能比計劃的不太嚴重，但在國會仍在持有的最終撥款法案中，湯普森認為，這一舉動將減緩經濟增長並削弱消費者的信心。

Another aspect that worries Thompson is the potential impact of stricter immigration policies, which might lead to labor shortages and increased wage pressure. As pointed out by former White House economic adviser Stephen Fuller, when the labor market tightens, businesses may struggle to maintain profitability, which could ripple through the economy and affect investment sentiment.

擔心湯普森的另一個方面是更嚴格的移民政策的潛在影響，這可能導致勞動力短缺並增加工資壓力。正如前白宮經濟顧問史蒂芬·富勒（Stephen Fuller）指出的那樣，當勞動力市場收緊時，企業可能難以維持盈利能力，這可能會在經濟中蔓延並影響投資情緒。

Furthermore, uncertainty around tariffs remains a sticking point. The administration’s inconsistent stance on trade has left businesses hesitant to invest, as they can’t predict future costs with confidence.

此外，關稅周圍的不確定性仍然是一個引人注目的點。政府對貿易的不一致立場使企業猶豫不決，因為他們無法充滿信心地預測未來的成本。

This kind of unpredictability makes it difficult for companies to plan ahead, leading to a cautious approach in both hiring and expansion.

這種不可預測的性使公司很難提前計劃，從而在招聘和擴張方面採取了謹慎的態度。

On the monetary policy side, despite the Fed’s recent surprise rate cut, Thompson expects further reductions to be cautious and spaced out, as the central bank remains focused on inflation control. The coordination between the Fed, Treasury Secretary Bessent, and President Trump signals a careful approach that might not offer the quick relief markets are hoping for.

在貨幣政策方面，儘管美聯儲最近削減了驚喜，但湯普森希望進一步的減少謹慎和間隔，因為中央銀行仍然專注於通貨膨脹控制。美聯儲，財政部長Bessent和特朗普總統之間的協調表明一種謹慎的方法，可能無法提供快速救濟市場所希望的。

In conclusion, Thompson sees these combined economic pressures as a significant challenge for Bitcoin and other risky assets. He also notes that the administration seems more focused on maintaining fiscal discipline than on avoiding a recession, suggesting that the current strategy might not change unless economic conditions worsen dramatically.

總之，湯普森認為這些綜合經濟壓力是對比特幣和其他風險資產的重大挑戰。他還指出，政府似乎更專注於維持財政紀律，而不是避免經濟衰退，這表明除非經濟狀況急劇惡化，否則當前的戰略可能不會改變。

With midterm elections looming in 2026, Thompson doesn’t rule out potential policy shifts if the economic pain becomes too politically costly. However, he remains skeptical that meaningful changes will happen soon, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to continued downward pressure.

隨著2026年中期選舉的臨近，湯普森不排除如果經濟痛苦在政治上太昂貴，則可能會發生可能的政策轉變。但是，他仍然對有意義的變化很快發生，使比特幣容易受到持續向下壓力的影響。